Feng Yuqing: China's past40Can the certainty centered on economic construction and guided by market development be re anchored. This is the crucial issue for every ordinary person of us.
Past3If the year is summarized in one word, it is uncertain. The COVID-19 has brought about too many reversals, accidents and pains. It has added huge variables to our already difficult life, almost changing all our plans and expectations for life and the mode of operation of our human society. History has its regularity and contingency. If it is a historical contingency to say that COVID-19 has been plagued for three years, then2023Year is returning to the laws of history to seek certainty. The most important aspect is the certainty of economic life. From restrictions on the real estate industry to crackdowns on the internet and education industries, coupled with frequent apocalyptic lockdowns in the past year or two, almost all private enterprises have been severely affected. according toIMFData from China2022The annual economic growth is3.2% It may only reach the global average or be lower than the global average growth, which is40For the first time in years. IMF estimate2023The spread of the COVID-19 epidemic in will have an impact on the economy, but the growth will accelerate to4.4%。 The World Bank's numbers are similar, predicting China2023The annual growth is4.5%Most mainstream international economic institutions predict that the Chinese economy will contract in the first quarter and rebound in the second quarter. In a recent research report, HSBC economists expect a contraction in the first quarter0.5%But2023The overall annual growth will be5%。 An important milestone in China this year is that India's population will increase4The month surpassed China and became the most populous country. Besides population, many people believe that China's economy has also passed its peak period. Until recently, many economists believed that every year8%The growth rate of China's GDP will surpass that of the United States by the end of the century, But other economists question whether China will eventually surpass the United States. Last year, former US Treasury Secretary and current Harvard University professor Summers8In an interview with Bloomberg News in June, he believed that the aging population in China and the increasing tendency of the government to intervene in corporate affairs, coupled with other challenges, have significantly lowered his expectations for China's economic growth. He believes that the prediction of China's rise is similar to early predictions that Japan or Russia will surpass the United States. But I don't think the future of China's economy can surpass that of the United States2023The year is an important event. stay2023What we should be more concerned about in the year is whether the Chinese economy can return to normal. That is to say, in the past, China40Can the certainty centered on economic construction and guided by market development be re anchored. This is the crucial issue for every ordinary person of us, which means whether we can continue on the path of creating unprecedented economic miracles. We have seen some such hopes. 12month15Day to Day16The clear signal conveyed by the Central Economic Work Conference in Japan is that the Chinese government is shifting its focus back to promoting economic growth. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal, state-owned banks are providing a large amount of loans and other credit commitments to domestic real estate developers in the midst of a credit crisis, with a credit limit of up to 1.2Trillion yuan. These new commitments from state-owned banks, coupled with the recent expansion of government supported bond guarantee programs, are all aimed at helping developers continue to operate and complete the construction of real estate projects. These measures will help solve the short-term liquidity pressure of real estate enterprises, but the greater challenge is to regain the trust of the Chinese people and homebuyers. According to market research institutions CRIC Driven by more support from the government for high debt industries, Chinese real estate companies 12 Monthly co financing 1018 RMB 100 million, year-on-year growth 33.4%。 In recent weeks, the central government has begun to re-examine policies targeting the technology and education industries, and is preparing to end its long-standing investigation into internet companies. One consideration is to prepare to relaunch the mobile app of ride hailing company Didi in domestic app stores. On Saturday, Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, told the media that relevant government departments have ended investigations into the financial business of several internet companies. Wall Street analysts generally predict that as the Chinese economy is about to reopen, the growth of Chinese technology companies will be2023The year has accelerated again, but the growth rate is unlikely to reach the past level of quarterly revenue growth30%to40%。 One of the world's largest providers of financial market data and infrastructureRefinitiv Estimated by Alibaba2022Revenue will increase year-on-year in the fourth quarter2%And then in the2023Accelerated to the second in the year6%Above, achieved in the third quarter12%。 Regulatory agencies have also begun to re approve games. last year12month28National Press and Publication Administration12Monthly approval information for domestic online games, total84Game approved, yes2022Once with the highest number of annual approvals; At the same time, there are also44 Imported online games in time intervals18Approved six months later. The relaxation of the epidemic policy, coupled with the adjustment of these policies, has shown people hope for the Chinese economy, and international investors are full of confidence in China's economic recovery this year. At the beginning of the new year, the onshore RMB continued to rise against the US dollar, and on Monday, the onshore RMB reported1USD to RMB6.7712Yuan, which has skyrocketed in five trading days within the year2.6%。 Meanwhile, foreign investors continue to buy Hong Kong stocks on a large scaleAChinese assets such as stocks and Chinese concept stocks provide strong support. And just after the lifting of the lockdown, despite the raging waves of the epidemic, so many Chinese companies have chartered flights to search for opportunities for overseas trade. This strong desire for a better life and the willingness to put in tremendous effort for diligence are also rare in the world. The Chinese people are the smartest and hardworking people in the world. With just a little sunshine, they can grow, and with just a little opportunity, they are willing to strive. The market economy has mobilized the intelligence and talents of the Chinese people to the greatest extent possible2023In the year, we need a certainty that allows Chinese people to continue working hard. So what kind of certainty does the China US relationship, which is crucial to the Chinese economy, have? Chimerica are responsible for manufacturing and consumption“Chinmerica” The perfect economy is breaking apart, and the term 'win-win' is no longer popular. The manufacturing industry in the United States is experiencing a revival, with a large number of previously lost jobs returning on a record scale. The non-profit organization that previously advocated for industry backflow, the 'Return to Shore Initiative'(Reshoring Initiative) According to a report,2022A record breaking year35Ten thousand manufacturing jobs have returned to the United States from overseas. In addition to returning home, American enterprises began to gradually transfer their overseas supply chains out of China. Previously, we were familiar with the transfer to Asian countries such as India and Vietnam, but now Mexico has emerged due to its closest geographical location to the United States. According to the New York Times, At the beginning of last year, Wal Mart needed purchase value100$10000 company uniform - single order exceeding510000 pieces - but instead of purchasing from regular suppliers in China, they chose the Mexican family clothing company Procelo(Preslow)。 According to an analysis by McKinsey Global Research Institute2021In, American investors invested more money in Mexico - acquiring companies and financing projects - than in China. In the coming years, the transfer to other Asian countries and Mexico represents a marginal redistribution of global manufacturing capacity due to geopolitical adjustments and the risk of deteriorating Sino US relations. But China will almost certainly remain the core link of the manufacturing industry. At the beginning of the new year, two world-class enterprises announced completely different attitudes towards the Chinese market on almost the same day, perfectly demonstrating this trend. U.S.APC Giant Dell Technologies plans to 2024 In, it stopped using Chinese made semiconductors and urged its suppliers to reduce the number of parts purchased from China due to concerns about escalating tensions between Beijing and Washington. Expected to arrive 2025 In the year, Dell will also 50% Production has been transferred out of the world's second largest economy. On the other hand, Panasonic Holdings plans to invest more than 3.75 Billion US dollars to expand production in China, betting on China's long-term potential after the pandemic. Panasonic19The first Chinese home appliance factory in the past year will be2024The factory will be put into operation in Zhejiang in, and will have the ability to produce value every year2.9A billion dollar microwave oven, rice cooker, and other small appliances. Panasonic's Chief Executive Officer, Naomi Hideyoshi(Yuki Kusumi)Recently, I told the Financial Times that the decoupling between the United States and China is becoming a greater challenge for us. But both the United States and China are the main markets that will steadily grow For any enterprise, whether to stay in China in the next few years is a soul wrenching question. Startups in Mississippi, USAGloProduce novel gadgets such as plastic squares that emit light when dropped into the water. Surprisingly,GloOur product is made in China. Due to the pandemic2021yearGloThe shipping cost from China has increased10Times. howeverCEO Hagen Walker Tell me2022He was still collaborating with three factories in Ningbo, Dongguan, and Shenzhen to place orders. He said to me, "There's no way, you won't be able to buy these low-cost consumer goods made in the United States anymore Glo It's a small company, So what about Apple, the world's largest company? Apple Inc1990It is no coincidence that the era is on the brink of bankruptcy and has become the most valuable company in the world, which is closely synchronized with the rise of the Chinese economy. It is actually a perfect product of the combination of American technology, Chinese manufacturing, and the world market after China's economic takeoff. even to the extent thatiPhone Our designs are increasingly imprinted with Chinese elements. But now Apple is more concerned about how to accelerate the transfer of its industrial chain out of China, especially for assembly in India and Vietnam. Although Apple has a strong desire to decouple from China, the reality is another matter, and its difficulty can be seen from a set of numbers. The Vietnamese and Indian markets can only provide tens of thousands of workers - this is only a fraction of Apple's production scale in China, where Apple's manufacturing workers have surpassed300Ten thousand. So transferring the supply chain out of China is an arduous process that is easy to say but difficult to do. And this means opportunities for China. If the certainty of taking the market as the center and developing the economy as the goal is recognized by multinational enterprises again, the wave of industrial chain transfer that started with the epidemic and the deterioration of Sino US relations may become slower and slower. Because not only China's manufacturing foundation but also its market are very attractive to multinational corporations. HSBC Holdings Limited Last year4Buying from state-owned partner Qianhai Financial Holding Co., Ltd39%Of the shares, with a shareholding ratio ranging from51%Increase to90%。 Liao Yijian, Co CEO of HSBC Asia Pacific(David Liao)In a statement, it was stated that "our increased holdings in HSBC Qianhai Securities reflect our continued investment in the rapidly developing Chinese market The Chinese government has also released some positive signals as the New Year approaches. Last year, the securities regulatory authorities12In January, it was announced that foreign companies primarily listed in Hong Kong would be eligible for inclusion in the eight year old "Hong Kong Stock Connect" for the first time, meaning that as long as they meet market value standards and other relevant requirements, these companies have the opportunity to directly contact the active retail investor group in China. I hope to use this to attract multinational companies to list in Hong Kong. After all, the tide of economic development has been experienced by the vast majority of Chinese people40A long-term consensus reached over a period of years. Such historical laws should provide considerable certainty for the future. The cake of domestic and international economic development in the future may shrink compared to before, but it is still a tempting and colorful cake that requires full effort, baking, and sharing. (This article only represents the author's viewpoint) |
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