last year12monthCPIYear-on-year increase6.5%, up from2021year10The lowest level since the beginning of the month indicates that inflation pressure has peaked at a time when the Federal Reserve has significantly tightened monetary policy.
last year12The year-on-year increase in US inflation fell to its lowest level in more than a year, further indicating that the Federal Reserve(Federal Reserve)Under the historical tightening of monetary policy, inflationary pressure has peaked. United States Bureau of Labor Statistics(Bureau of Labor Statistics)Last year announced on Wednesday12Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Year-on-year growth6.5%The increase narrowed for the sixth consecutive month. Although this increase is still close to decades high, it has already been2021year10The lowest level since the beginning of the month, and significantly lower than last year6Of9.1%。 last year12monthCPIMonth-on-month decline0.1%。 The 'core' that receives close attentionCPIlast year12Month on month increase0.3%, year-on-year increase5.7%。 CoreCPIExcluding volatile food and energy prices, it is considered the best indicator to reflect the trajectory of inflation. Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring the latest inflation data to gauge how much they will further restrain the US economy. Four consecutive interest rate hikes0.75After a percentage point, the interest rate hike has been reduced to0.5The US central bank, which is one percentage point, is considering whether it can resume a more typical rate hike at the next policy meeting0.25A percentage point pace. Last year, the Federal Reserve12The month has decided to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes as it has already significantly increased rates in a short period of time. The US central bank also takes into account the fact that changes in monetary policy will take some time to have an impact on economic activity. Before making this decision, a series of better than expected inflation data were released one after another, indicating that consumer demand is starting to decline more noticeably. This coincides with the easing of supply chain bottlenecks, helping to lower the prices of energy and daily necessities such as cars, household appliances, and clothing. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring service sector inflation - after removing costs related to energy, food, and housing; Officials say that inflation in the service industry is closely related to the labor market and wage increases (stemming from employers attempting to overcome severe employee shortages). The rate of wage increase has fallen from its peak, but employment growth remains strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering near historical lows. The concern is that price pressures related to services will be difficult to eradicate, requiring a period of extremely low growth and higher unemployment rates. Since last year12Since the monthly meeting, Federal Reserve officials have issued a unanimous message that the federal funds rate is likely to exceed5%And in the2023Only by maintaining this level throughout the year can inflation be contained. The target range for the federal funds rate is currently4.25%to4.5%。 From the current market pricing perspective, the market does not agree with such predictions, but rather believes that the Federal Reserve will raise policy interest rates slightly below5%And will start lowering interest rates before the end of the year. |
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