Suye Lunjin:8.10早评，黄金原油早间操作建议及解套

　　哪里有硝烟哪里就有战场，可以说只要有特朗普的地方哪里就不会平静，昨日北美盘初，特朗普再发推特怒怼朝鲜，恐慌指数进一步攀升，避险风暴愈演愈烈：欧美股市下挫，避险日元、瑞郎持续攀升，避险gold击破1270美元关口，美元指数则走出倒V行情，在美国公布非农生产力和单位劳动力成本之后短线上扬，但周五的美国通胀数据出炉之前谨慎情绪依旧，美指随后很快回吐涨幅。
　　
　　笔者苏野认为：黄金昨日美盘由于受避险情绪影响，终究突破了前高1275位置，黄金自非农之后并未延续下破，而是走震荡修正，经过周初连续两个交易日的震荡之后，周三晚间快速下探后大幅反抽，突破高点之后，延续慢速上涨，没有回踩的余地，目前上方需要关注的是1280区域为阻力，这波强势多头彻彻底底收复失地。
　　
Analysis of Gold Technology:
　　
Gold opened early in the day at1259.9At the beginning of the Asian session, gold saw a significant rise in the US dollar and briefly touched the upper limit1267First line, followed by a slight decline, while gold prices remained stable in the later stages of the Asian and European markets1263.4-1269The range maintains a fluctuating upward pattern. On the eve of the US stock market listing, due to the intensification of tension between the US and North Korea, gold prices began to rise strongly, with the highest intraday price being1279Near the US dollar, followed by a slight decline in the market, currently trading on1276Near the US dollar. Now that the hourly chart has broken through and the price has closed higher, it can be said that the bulls are stable, but the US market has fallen in the time cycle.

　　

Currently, from the Golden Day online perspective,KThe line is supported by the middle track line of the Bollinger Bands below, and two positive bars are recorded, indicating the current rebound strength. The Bollinger Bands continue to maintain an upward trend, and the fast and slow lines on the indicator move upward with a golden cross,MACDRed kinetic energy column reduction, short-term4On the hourly chart, gold broke through the suppression of the previous downward trend line in the evening and also broke through the previous high point1270On the front line, the bearish trend is coming to an end, and it is expected to further rise in the future. Currently, based on indicators, gold is operating on the upper track of the Bollinger BandsRSITurn the head upwards from a high position,StochThe high dead cross of the indicator means that gold is facing a short-term pullback, but the magnitude of the pullback will not be too deep. Stepping back is giving the opportunity to go long, from the perspective of indicatorsRSIHigh position turning head downwards,StochThe indicator has a high dead cross, and gold has closed negative at a high level. The short-term is facing adjustment, and after the adjustment, continue to go long and look up. Pay attention to the upper level1280Line pressure level, pay attention to below1270-68First line support position.
　　
Suggestions for Gold Operations:
　　
　　1Suggest a fallback1268-1270Long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1276-1278On the front line, breaking through and holding;
　　
　　2Suggestions1280Short selling is possible due to obstacles on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1272-1270Below.
　　
　　EIAAccording to data released on Wednesday,crude oilInventory reduction645.10万桶，降幅超预期，汽油库存大增，美国原油产量下滑。多空信号混杂，油价短线剧烈震荡后跳水，最低触及48.99dollar/桶。苏野认为，尽管EIA数据整体利多油价，但鉴于前期积累了过多的多头头寸，上方面临50美元压力，这导致了油价在数据公布后，短线震荡后跳水。随着美国生产的放缓的迹象，油价已经上涨，同时石油钻井增长也开始放缓。当油价突破50美元的关口的时候，可能意味着看涨情绪已经达到了顶峰。
　　
　　此外，油价在美国EIA汽油库存上升超预期利空消息公布后，盘中展开反复拉锯，但收盘依然收出中阳线。整体走势颇有平台整理，蓄势待突破的意味。周四(8month10day)OPEC将公布月度原油市场报告，油价能否否极泰来，还得过看报告结果而定。
　　
Technical analysis of crude oil:
　　
　　原油，从日线上看油价经过8month1号的大幅度破位之后，随后几个交易日一直维持在48.5-50美元之间震荡，震荡已久，必迎破位，虽然本周连续两个交易日收阴，晚间EIA数据利多，但也未能打破区间震荡。消息面上看，虽然本周一和周二在阿布扎比举行提高减产协议的结果符合市场预期，但OPEC内部产油国增产依然打压油价多头，同时，API原油库存大降但汽油库存意外增加，油价急涨后回落，油价多头呈现一副有心无力的状态。

　　

　　日线技术面上看油价震荡上行运行在49.5一带，目前上方受49.6Zone suppression, further pressure level still looks towards50美元整数关口，而下方支撑则关注48.5一带。从目前的走势来看油价反弹力度有限，附图MACDstay0轴上方预交死叉运行，红色动能逐渐消耗殆尽，暗示油价上行疲软。建议维持在48.5-50区间高沽低渣操作。
　　
Suggestions for crude oil operation:
　　
　　1Above49.6-49.8Short selling, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target49.0Nearby;
　　
　　2Below48.8-49.0Long, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target49.6nearby
　　
　　黄金空单解套方案：

　　

　　1、1265附近被套的朋友，你们不要着急，你们套单的点位不是很低，其实你们在下午行情回调的时候完全有机会解套出局的，但是你们没有抓住机会，晚间受消息面影响，黄金一波拉升至日内新高1276.3Frontline, currently maintained at1273附近震荡。这个时候我不知道为什么会有人会想到补仓空单而不是小损出局，恐怕这个只有你们自己才知道了。分析局势，分析行情，这样操作起来才会行于流水。对于套单的朋友，我建议待行情回调小损出局，然后补仓多单，挽回损失。
　　
　　2、1255以下被套的朋友，就目前的趋势而言，行情想要回调到1260下方还是有些难度的，特别是现在局势看多的情况下，所以笔者苏野建议有回调就减仓，再根据回调的幅度再减仓或者平仓，然后反手做多。
　　
　　3，1240以下持有空单的朋友就特别注意下，这就是深套，很多大资金的朋友估计这个时候也是快扛不住了，由于避险情绪升温，黄金还是看好多头仍有上行的趋势，所以空单拿的越久就套得越深！这个时候你可以摆渡苏野。
　　Wen/Su Ye's Discussion on Gold reform lxr1489