兴业投资：汽油需求劲升力挽狂澜原油探底回升

View All · Published on 2017-8-3 14:56:08

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兴业投资：汽油需求劲升力挽狂澜 crude oilBottoming out and rebounding
2017year8month3day
Crude oil:
周三尽管美国EIA原油库存数据不及预期，但强劲的美国原油需求拯救了原油多头。两地原油探底回升，美国原油重新逼近50整数关。美国NYMEX 9Monthly crude oilfuturesrise0.82USD, increase1.68%Report49.61dollar/bucket;ICEBrent10Monthly crude oil futures increase1.73%Report52.36dollar/Bucket.
Overnight US Energy Information Agency(EIA)According to the published data, as of7month28During the current week, US crude oil inventories decreased152.7万桶，虽连续5周录得下滑，但不及预期减少290Ten thousand barrels. In addition, domestic crude oil production in the United States increased last week210000 barrels to94310000 barrels/日，创新周期高点，为连续24Zhou Weiwei90010000 barrels/日关口上方。数据公布之后，美国9月原油期货合约在北京时间8month2day22:30-22:34五分钟成交量为50702Hand, the total value of the trading contract is close to24亿美元，并触及当日最低点48.58。
但数据还显示，汽油需求升至纪录高点，为98410000 barrels/日。汽油需求的大幅上升提振了市场的乐观情绪，并推动两地原油从当日低位回升。
不过投资者需要注意，油价很可能又会因为产油国增产等消息出现下滑，特别是已有传闻称7monthOPEC产量持续增长。近几日油价的走势基本随着市场的消息而变动。近日原油市场无数据，关注产油国消息。
USD Index:
周三美国公布的“小非农”数据显示，美国7monthADPIncrease in employment17.8万，略不及预期增长19万。差于预期的ADP数据导致美元快速下探当日最低92.51。而且美联储官员路易斯联储主席布拉德还发表了鸽派讲话，称美国通胀前景低迷，不会在短期内支持进一步加息。不过今年具有票委权的梅斯特却赞成加息和缩表。美元指数在探底之后出现V型反转，收复此前的部分跌幅，但最终依旧收跌，承压于93关口。今日可关注美国上周初请和ISM非制造业指数等数据。
technical analysis
US crude oil:
日图：隔夜虽反弹，但依旧受制于200日均线，上行空间可能有限。
4小时图：随机指标向下，暗示有下跌的可能。
小时图：虽探底回升，但上涨动能并不大，依旧维持在50Below the gate.
Overview: Expected to decline. Suggest within the day49.65Short the first line of light positions, let's take a look first49.00Look again48.60Stop loss set at49.95upper.
Brent crude oil:
日图：隔夜的反弹并没有改变随机指标向下现象，或倾向于高位整理。
4小时图：反弹的动能并不强烈，目前维持在52A linear oscillation.
Hour chart:51.20附近受支撑上行，但依旧维持在短期上行趋势线的下方。
综述：下行风险加大。日内建议于52.35Short the first line of light positions, let's take a look first51.60Look again51.00Stop loss set at52.75upper.
Follow on Thursday:
Italy/France/Germany/eurozone/britain7Monthly service industryPMI
eurozone6Monthly retail sales rate/the annual rate
英央行利率决议及英央行行长卡尼讲话
U.S.A7月挑战者裁员人数
美国上周初请/续请失业金人数
U.S.A7Monthly service industryPMI
U.S.A7monthISMNon manufacturing index
U.S.A6Monthly factory order rate
U.S.AEIAChanges in natural gas inventory