Chu Moyu:8.3EIA利空原油会跌吗？原油走势分析及操作建议

Chu Moyu:8.3EIABearishcrude oil会跌吗？原油走势分析及操作建议


Message: No one's money comes out of thin air, no one's funds are infinite. What makes money is not how accurate the order is, but reducing losses when the order is wrong. Investment is a long-term process, with joy, sadness, and sometimes even pain. However, this is investment, not only to make money, but more importantly, to cultivate awareness of making money and methods of utilizing funds. Don't expect a single profit to bring you anything. Without risk control, one operation may turn everything upside down. Calm down on the successes and mistakes in operation, learn to summarize, not only the experience of success, but also the lessons of failure!

——Message surface——


Wednesday Beijing Time（8month2Day and evening22:30United States Energy Information Administration（EIA）Published as of7month28Decrease in inventory of crude oil depot during the current week152.7Ten thousand barrels, continuous5周录得下滑，前值为减少720.8Ten thousand barrels, expected decrease295.7万桶。数据公布后，美油布油双双短线下挫。NYMEXMost active9Monthly crude oilfuturesContract in Beijing Time8month2day22:30-22:34五分钟成交量为50702Hand, the total value of the trading contract is close to24USD100mn


　　作为昨日EIA数据不多的亮点，上周美国汽油库存减少251.7万桶，远超于分析师此前平均预期的减少63.6万桶，汽油需求也创下了历史纪录，达98010000 barrels/日以上。但是就数据整体而言，库存降幅不及预期，美国国内产量、进口均有所上升，或许意味着短期内油市平衡的步伐受阻。


　　对此，OPEC组织的出尔反尔恐怕要承担最大的责任。在前日被曝出7月产量创半年新高后，昨日又有消息称沙特再度食言。为实现全球油市再平衡，沙特早前承诺将减少对美国的原油出口。但最新EIA报告显示，上周美国从沙特进口的原油就达到117.410000 barrels/Day, create5月底以来最高水平。同时，非OPEC减产成员国的领头羊俄罗斯7月原油产出为109510000 barrels/日，也较上月多出0.1%, year-on-year increase0.6%。

　　——原油行情分析——


Last night's crude oilEIA数据虽然是利空，但是价格下探的幅度也是有限，截止目前最低点在48.6一线，从目前各周期的运行情况来看，尾盘再次触及48.6一线显然是小概率事件了，走势上或更多的表现是持续的高位震荡整理，日线上油价目前运行于5日均线附近，上轨延伸至前期高点50.5的位置压制着原油，下方10Daily moving average at48.36附近支撑原油，目前原油基本企稳在49Above the US dollar,macd快慢线金叉上行，上行动能柱重新开始放量，目前已经延伸至49美元处支撑油价，下方下轨则在48.5附近继续做二级支撑位，macd快慢线指标正值，下行的走势已经趋于平缓，下行动能柱缩量中。目前上方关注49.7-50.1-50.5一线的压力位，下方关注49.0-48.6-48.0一线的支撑位。


Suggestions for crude oil operation:


　　1Suggestions49.4Multiple entry orders on the front line, target49.8--50；


　　2Suggest a fallback49--48.6区间多单进场，目标49.5--50；


　　3Suggestions above27.13-12.09做单进场，目标64。


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