Crossing the Sea 2017year 8month2day

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

8

month

2

day

Focus this week:
8month2day(Wednesday)
U.S.A7monthADPChanges in private employment positions

8month3day(Thursday)
U.S.A7monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A7monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A7monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A6Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A6Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision
U.S.A7monthISMNon manufacturing index

8month4day(Friday)
U.S.A7Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A7Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A7Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A7Monthly labor force employment participation rate
U.S.A6Revised monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A6Dallas Federal ReservePCEPrice index truncated mean


Important economic data released today:   
19：00Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index‧Previous value418.5
19：00Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index‧Previous value1,414.3
20：15U.S.A7monthADPChanges in private employment positions‧Forecast increase18.8Ten thousand‧Previous value increase15.8Ten thousand
21：45U.S.A7monthISM纽约指数-New York Corporate Activity Index‧Previous value739.1



News of the Week
U.S.A6The monthly housing completion index has increased compared to the previous month1.5%, to110.2
U.S.A7Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by58.9
Caixin China7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIAscend to51.1, at a four month high
American Supply Management Association(ISM)7The monthly manufacturing index is56.3
U.S.A6Monthly construction expenditure decreases1.3%
U.S.A7monthMARKITManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is53.3, for3The highest since the beginning of the month
U.S.A6月个人支出较前月增加0.1%
U.S.A6Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the previous month0.1%
U.S.A6monthPCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year1.4%
U.S.A6Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)物价指数较前月持平
U.S.A6Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year1.5%
U.S.A6月个人所得较前月持平

Only after taking office in the United States10Scaramucci, the White House Communications Director, has been dismissed by Trump


8month1day
LondongoldMorning order price:1267.05
London gold afternoon fixing price:1270.95

Today's Introduction
美国消费者支出和制造业数据疲软，奠定经济温和增长基调

衡量美国制造业活动的一项指标7月从近三年高位下滑，因新订单放缓，消费者支出几乎没有增长，这为第三季经济温和扩张奠定基调。周二的其他数据也突显这种情况。汽车销量7月录得近七年来最大同比降幅。6月建筑支出大幅下降，表明政府可能调降第二季国内生产总值(GDP)增幅预测。商务部上周公布，4-6月季度经济环比年率增长2.6%Compared to the first season1.2%提速。美国供应管理协会(ISM)Announcement,7The monthly manufacturing index varies from6Of57.8lower56.3。6月水平为2014year8月以来最高。制造业在美国经济中占约12%的比重。制造业正在放缓，因经历一波油井钻探活动激增后，能源行业带来的提振效应消退。此外，车企采取措施应对销售下滑情况，使得汽车生产下滑，也令制造业受到伤害。销售下滑使得车企受到库存增加的困扰。汽车产量已经连续三个季度下降。通用汽车周二报告称，7月其销售较上年同期下滑15%；福特汽车称销售下降7.5%。 U.S.A7月汽车总体销售较上年同期下降6.1%，经季节调整后为1,673万辆，同比降幅创下2010year8The largest since the beginning of the month.7monthISM产出分项指数跌1.8Point to60.6，新订单分项指数从6Of63.5fall to60.4，制造商对需求持乐观看法。化学制品、计算机及电子产品、 非金属矿物产品领域的制造商有的报告订单强劲增长，有的则报告需求强劲增长。美元指数自15个月低位反弹。美国公债价格亦扭转跌势，终场收高。美国股市上扬，道琼工业指数触及纪录高位。

据周二公布的另一份报告，商务部表示，6月消费者支出小增0.1%，5Month is ascending0.2%。消费者支出占美国经济活动的逾三分之二。此外也没有多少通胀迹象。6月扣除食品和能源价格的核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数较上年同期升1.5%。 corePCE物价指数是美联储青睐的通胀指标。美联储设定的通胀率目标为2%。经通胀调整后，6月个人支出较前月持平，5Monthly rise0.2%。6月支出持平表明第三季个人支出增长将温和。上周五出炉的国内生产总值(GDP)报告涵盖该数据。个人支出增速在2016年第二季达到3.8%后，一直低于3%，受累于收入增长低迷。美国6月个人所得较前月持平，创2016year11Lunar glide0.1%以来最低水平，5Monthly increase0.3%。6月工资和薪金上涨0.4%。6月个人股息收入下降3.0%，5月为大增4.8%。扣除通胀因素后家庭可支配收入下降0.1%Last year12月来最大降幅。商务部公布的另一份报告显示，美国6月建筑支出较前月下降1.3%to1.21trillion(Megabyte)USD, for2016year9月来最低。建筑支出是受到公共投资下降5.4%的拖累，这是公共投资自2002year3月来的最大降幅。联邦、州和地方政府的投资全部下降。关于美国总统特朗普提高基建支出的承诺将带来建筑荣景的希望，现在已经基本消退。

美国财政部将公布再融资计划，其中超长期公债备受关注

美国财政部周三将公布政府再融资计划，其中一大看点是，是否会就较长期公债的发行提供一些信息。财政部5月份表示正在考虑发行一档超长期公债，或者重新发行1986年停发的20年期公债。外界认为，财政部推出50年期公债的可能性最高。发行超长期公债，符合财政部以最低成本为美国政府融资的目标。



XAU London Gold - Gold prices rebounded strongly in July, beware of overbought pullbacks

美国经济数据不佳推动金价周二走至七周高位1273.97美元。衡量美国制造业活动的一项指标7月从近三年高位下滑，因新订单放缓，消费者支出几乎没有增长，这为第三季经济温和扩张奠定基调。然而，当前投资者开始为周五美国公布非农就业报告等本周重要经济事件布仓，使得美元跌势稍作减缓。近期美国政治动荡和美国经济数据平淡无奇特别是低迷的通胀，使得美国联邦储备理事会(FED)收紧政策步伐的不确定性升高，美元受到拖累。

技术走势而言，自7month10The day bottomed out at1204.45After the US dollar, the price of gold has continued to rise repeatedly and has risen to this day1270The six week high above the US dollar forms an upward channel, with the bottom located at1257美元，需防范若金价后市回破此区，短期或会出现回调的风险。同时，价位走势已经与RSI及随机指数出现背驰状态，调整机会正在加大。若以此轮累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%The level of feedback is1245and1237USD, extended to61.8%Then in the1230水平。至于向上阻力则预估在1275And the top of the channel1280The US dollar, the key will directly point to1291To the extent that1300USD level,4month17Daily and6month6Japan has also knocked on the door of this area, but has since made significant adjustments, with high positions at that time being1295.42and1295.97USD.

London Gold8month2day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1257– 1280
Resistance level:1291– 1304
Support bit:1247– 1234

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
7month10Day - 832.39ton
7month11Day - 832.39ton
7month12Day - 832.39ton
7month13Day - 828.84ton
7month14Day - 828.84ton
7month17Day - 827.07ton
7month18Day - 821.45ton
7month19Day - 816.13ton
7month20Day - 816.13ton
7month21Day - 813.76ton
7month24Day - 809.62ton
7month25Day - 800.45ton
7month26Day - 795.42ton
7month27Day - 791.88ton
7month28Day - 791.88ton
7month31Day - 791.88ton
8month1Day - 791.88ton

8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
8Monthly goldoptionDue date:7month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year6month5day)

Global:33425.6(+50.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.3ton (-0.6ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1687.3ton (+7.2ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - Silver price exploration50MA

从图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数正呈初步回落迹象，倘若本周初未能企稳于50Balance moving average16.64Above the US dollar, it is feared that silver prices will show a significant adjustment. Silver prices have already explored this indicator in June but have not broken through. Expected support below is25Balance moving average16.24and15.70The key is to explore the US dollar15The US dollar barrier. As for if silver prices continue to rise4month17Daily high18.65Calculate the initial cumulative decline,50%and61.8%The rebound level will be observed16.75and17.20Horizontal, larger resistance will be referenced6Monthly high17.75USD, next level material is18USD.  

London Silver8month2day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.40– 17.00
Resistance level:17.30– 17.90
Support bit:16.10– 15.70

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
7month17Day - 10855.49ton
7month18Day - 10826.08ton
7month19Day - 10826.08ton
7month20Day - 10796.67ton
7month21Day - 10796.67ton
7month24Day - 10752.56ton
7month25Day - 10693.75ton
7month26Day - 10693.75ton
7month27Day - 10693.75ton
7month28Day - 10658.47ton
7month31Day - 10629.07ton
8month1Day - 10629.07ton



EUR euro - 欧元区第二季经济较前季成长0.6%

欧盟统计局周二公布的首次估值数据表明，今年第二季欧元区经济巩固了强劲扩张的势头，成长幅度连续第二个季度相当于英国的两倍。数据证实了今年开始的趋势，欧元区19国经济复苏得到巩固，而英国开始感受到脱离欧盟决定所带来的负面影响。欧盟统计局数据显示，欧元区第一季区内生产总值(GDP)Growth compared to the previous season0.6%，第一季略下修为成长0.5%。而英国第二季GDP较前季仅增长0.3%，相比于第一季0.2%的迟滞增幅也只是略有改善。欧元区经济加速增长，得益于企业乐观情绪高涨、区内消费强劲以及失业率下滑。欧元区6月失业率触及2009年以来最低水平。欧盟统计局称，欧元区第二季经济增长环比年率为2.3%，第一季为2.0%。国际货币基金组织(IMF)7月公布的最新预测估计，今年欧元区经济增长1.9%，2018Annual growth1.7%，高于对英国预测的增长1.7%and1.5%。欧盟执委会经济事务执委莫斯可维西称，第二季经济增长初估数据可能促使欧盟执委会上修其经济预估。欧盟执委会5月时预计欧元区今年经济增长1.7%Next year's growth1.8%。欧盟统计局将在8month16日公布欧元区第二季经济增长二次估值，在9month7日公布终值。区内经济状态更佳，可能支持欧洲央行秋季开始收紧货币政策的计划，不过7月整体通胀率仍然稳定在1.3%，不及欧洲央行低于但接近2%The goal of.

欧元兑美元再创两年半高位，美元遭遇政治风险和货币政策不确定性打击，而相比之下，欧元却从外界对欧洲央行最终将逐步退出宽松政策的预期中得到支撑。今年欧元在10Group of Nations(G10)货币中表现亮眼，兑美元已上涨逾12%，其中大部分涨幅为过去三个月中所录。但部分投资者对欧元强势益发感到担忧。

欧元兑美元走势，经历了5Late month to6月于1.11to1.13的横盘整理后，欧元持续拾级而上，于7月份升势加剧，月底升见至1.1845的两年半高位。而自2015year1Since the beginning of the month, the euro has emerged from a triple bottom pattern, with three bottoms:2015year3Of1.0456，2015year12Of1.0538, and this year1Of1.0339Therefore, the euro can stabilize at1.17水平这道颈线上方，技术面将巩固欧元的进一步强势。下一级阻力预料为1.1860The key will directly point to1.20关口。预估延伸较大阻力则在250Weekly moving average1.2060and1.2170水平。然而，相对强弱指标及随机指数已处于高至90水平上方的严重超买区域，需留意价位越接近1.20这个重要心理关口前，出现回调的机率亦会随之加大。若果以6month20Daily low1.1117至本轮涨势的暂见高位1.1845Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%and50%The callback amplitude is1.1565and1.1480Horizontal.

Focus:
8month2day(three): Eurozone6monthPPI
8month3day(four): Italy7monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France7monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧Germany7monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone7monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone6Monthly retail sales

Related news
France7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is54.9
Italy7Monthly manufacturing industryPMISlightly descending55.1
Germany7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is58.1
Spain7Monthly manufacturing industryPMInewspaper54.0
Germany7The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for menstruation is5.7%
Germany7The total unemployed population without seasonal adjustment per month is251.8ten thousand people
Germany7Seasonal adjustment of menstrual cycle reduces unemployment population9,000People, to253.7ten thousand people
eurozone7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is56.6      

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.1860 –1.2000 –1.2060 –1.2170
support1.1700 –1.1565 –1.1480



JPY yen - USD touch14Low for months, suppressed by political turmoil

日本央行审议委员布野幸利周三表示，该央行不再为实现2%的通胀目标设定两年的时间框架。日本央行2013年推出大规模刺激计划，以便兑现在大约两年内达到2%通胀目标的承诺。但此后一直未能如愿，去年被迫调整了政策框架。

As seen in the technical chart,MACDFalling below the signal line, relative strength indicators and random indices are still declining, indicating that the exchange rate is still weak. The trend of the double top pattern is still clearly reflected, with the two tops being5month11Of114.36and7month11Of114.49, failed to break through114.50Under the resistance, the road has been declining for the past two weeks. Currently supported by250The Tianping moving average, previously in June and April, also experienced a decline in exchange rates250The Tianping moving average has not been clearly broken below, and there has been a strong rebound since then. Therefore, if this trip can eventually fall below the current position110.20of250The Tianping moving average will further confirm the continuation of the downward trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. In addition, the neckline position of the bipedal form, i.e6month14day108.81, will be another key level, the next level is108. Keep paying attention upwards114.50Horizontal, for closer resistance, refer to25Balance moving average112.50and113.60This can be seen as a suitable area for re establishing short positions in the US dollar, breaking through115Stop loss at the checkpoint.

Focus:
8month3day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
8month4day(five): Japan6Monthly overtime pay

Related news
Japan7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value drops to52.1

审议委员布野幸利：央行不再为实现通胀目标设定时间框架

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance112.50 –113.60 –115.00*
support110.20 –108.80 –108.00



GBP pound - Pay attention to the UK interest rate discussion this week, which may limit the rise of the pound


受英国7月制造业采购经理人指数攀升至55.1提振，英镑兑美元升至10个月最高点。7月份，英国制造业增长自七个月低点反弹，投资者对英国经济衰退的担忧已有所缓解。本周以来英镑走势强劲，周二发布的积极经济数据令英镑获得支持，不过英镑/美元回升的主要驱动力仍是美元疲软。本周对英镑而言很重要，周四英国将公布服务业PMI数据、英国央行政策决定以及最新的季度通胀报告，英镑料大幅波动。美元低迷已推动英镑/USD rise1.3200美元上方，若该汇率日收盘再次突破1.3200美元，则有望进一步上行。

英镑兑美元方面，承接过去两日升势，英镑周二进一步涨至1.32水平上方的10个月高位。近月英镑走势持续反复上扬，并形成了一道上升趋向线，至今位于1.3030Technically, caution should be taken in the future. If this area is clearly lost, there is expected to be a significant adjustment in the pound. Below is a larger support reference50The current position of the balance moving average1.2905and1.28Horizontal. On the contrary, if the flag shape continues to rise again, the golden ratio will be calculated based on last year's6month24Daily high1.5018to10month7Daily low1.1450accumulate3568Calculation of point drop,50%The rebound level is1.3230Expand to61.8%Then it is1.3655. Other resistance can be referred to1.35and100Weekly moving average1.3540Horizontal.

Focus:
8month2day(three): UK7monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
8month3day(four): UK7monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI‧britain8Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution‧Scale of quantitative easing‧MPCVoting results

Related news
NATIONWIDE: UK7Monthly housing prices have increased compared to the previous month0.3%，00Increase compared to the same period last year2.9%   

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3230 –1.3500 –1.3655
support1.3030 –1.2905 –1.2800 –1.2720



CHF Swiss franc - 维持走强

In terms of USD/CHF, USD/CHF will continue to be weak, and the next target will be towards last year5Monthly low0.9440If there is significant support, you can refer to it2015year8Monthly low0.9251To the extent that0.9150Horizontal. As for the resistance above, it is10Balance moving average0.9635and0.9810To the next level100Balance moving average0.9860Horizontal.

Related news
Switzerland7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Ascend to60.9
Switzerland6Monthly retail sales increased compared to the same period last year1.5%
瑞士第三季消费者信心指数升至负3

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9635 –0.9810 –0.9860
support0.9440 –0.9251 – 0.9150



AUD AUD - The central bank maintains interest rates unchanged and raises opposition to the strengthening of the Australian dollar

澳元兑美元下跌0.2%to0.7951美元，进一步远离上周四触及的2015year5Monthly high point0.8066美元。澳元自6月初以来累计上涨近7%，主要受美元全线下跌的推动。澳元目前受到利差交易投资者的青睐。

澳元周二受到打压，因澳洲央行警告称澳元坚挺可能损及经济。央行亦淡化降息以抑制澳元的可能性，主要是担心加剧债务驱动的房市泡沫。技术图表所见，自2016Since the third quarter of the year, the exchange rate trend has outlined a set of head, shoulder, and bottom patterns, with the neckline positioned at0.7780，只要汇价持稳于此区上方，澳元料仍可保持上涨势头。以右肩的深度450Point calculation, technology extension goals can be seen0.8230; If the amplitude of the head shape620Point calculation, mid-term goals will point towards0.84Horizontal. As for the current resistance in close proximity, attention can be paid to it50Monthly average line0.8070。然而，鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数已出现回调，估计澳元短期先作调整的机会较大，下方支持回看25Balance moving average0.78The larger supporting material is0.7710and0.7640Horizontal.

Related news
The Bank of Australia announces the maintenance of benchmark interest rates at1.50%unchanged

Australia6月经季节调整后的新屋建筑许可较前月跳增10.9%

Focus:
8month3day(four): Australia6monthAIGService Industry Performance Index‧Trade balance of goods and services‧Import‧Export
8month4day(five): Australia6Monthly retail sales rate‧Q2 Retail Trade Season Rate in Australia

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.8000 –0.8070 –0.8230
support0.7800 –0.7720 –0.7640



NZD New Zealand dollars - 第二季就业成长意外下降，强化了央行的中性政策立场

周三公布的官方数据显示，新西兰第二季就业成长意外下滑，且薪资增长疲弱，这强化了新西兰央行将在未来数年维持利率在纪录低位不变的前景。新西兰统计局数据显示，截至6月底的三个月中，就业创造下降0.2%；分析师预期为增长0.7%。季度薪资增长0.4%，仍维持低迷状态，但按年增长1.6%，且符合分析师预期。新西兰央行将于8month10日召开货币政策会议。该央行2016年多次下调利率，11月将指针利率下调至纪录低位的1.75%，并已暗示可能到2020年都将维持利率不变，以推高通胀。

纽元兑美元连跌第三日，盘中低点0.7416by7month26日以来最低。周三的数据显示，新西兰第二季就业成长意外下滑，且薪资增长依然疲弱。数据强化了新西兰央行近期不会急于升息的看法。图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已告回挫，同时MACDThe pointer has also fallen the signal line, and it is estimated that the New Zealand dollar is beginning to experience a correction correction correction against the US dollar. Below is an estimate supported by0.74and0.7260The key is250Balance moving average0.7140and0.70Gateway. If calculated based on the cumulative increase since May,38.2%and50%The level of feedback will be observed separately0.7270and0.7190Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then in the0.71. On the other hand, the resistance above focuses on100Monthly average line0.7550If it can break through and rise, the next target will see0.7745To the extent that0.78Horizontal.

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新西兰第二季经季节调整后的失业率降至4.8%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7500 –0.7550 –0.7745
support0.7130 –0.7000 –0.6800/40



CAD Cad - 中美贸易摩擦担忧打击商品货币

美元周三持稳，中止近期连续跌势，因投资者继续解除针对美元的空头押注，尤其是兑纽元和加元。对于中国和美国贸易摩擦的担忧也打击大宗商品相关货币，这些货币今年以来受到强劲资金流入支撑。美国政府的一位高官周二表示，特朗普总统对于如何响应其所谓的中国不公平贸易做法，目前已接近做出决定。

美元兑加元走势，过去两个月汇价一路下滑，直至近日似乎在1.24止住了跌势，而RSI及随机指数亦已见有回升迹象；故此短线汇价或可望先作回稳，上方阻力回看1.2590and25Balance moving average1.2720. Calculated by the golden ratio,38.2%的反弹幅度见于1.2940水平。反之，若果后市下破1.24这个当前的关键水平，预料延伸跌幅可会看至1.2175To the extent that1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916。

Focus:
8month4day(five): Canada7Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧trade balance‧Export‧Import‧IveyPMI

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Canada6Monthly industrial product prices have declined compared to the previous month1.0%, up from the same period last year3.3%
MARKITCanada7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Ascend to55.5

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2590 –1.2720 –1.2940
support1.2400* –1.2175 –1.2000



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinion, sincerely for readers to refer to; I would like to remind readers that financial market fluctuations are unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks