Crossing the Sea 2017year 8month1day

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

8

month

1

day

Focus this week:
8month1day(Tuesday)
U.S.A6Monthly actual personal expenditure rate
U.S.A6Monthly personal income rate
U.S.A6Monthly personal expenditure rate
U.S.A6monthPCEprice index
U.S.A7monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A6Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A7monthISMManufacturing Index

8month2day(Wednesday)
U.S.A7monthADPChanges in private employment positions

8month3day(Thursday)
U.S.A7monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A7monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A7monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A6Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A6Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision
U.S.A7monthISMNon manufacturing index

8month4day(Friday)
U.S.A7Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A7Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A7Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A7Monthly labor force employment participation rate
U.S.A6Revised monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A6Dallas Federal ReservePCEPrice index truncated mean

Important economic data released today:   
20：30U.S.A6Monthly actual personal expenditure rate‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30U.S.A6Monthly personal income rate‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.4%
20：30U.S.A6Monthly rate of personal expenses adjusted for menstrual season‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30U.S.A6Monthly core personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Monthly rate of price index‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30U.S.A6Monthly core personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Annual rate of price index‧Previous value+1.4%
20：30U.S.A6Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Monthly rate of price index‧Previous value-0.1%
20：30U.S.A6Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)Annual rate of price index‧Previous value+1.4%
21：30Canada7monthMarkitSeasonally Adjusted Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)‧Previous value54.7
21：45U.S.A7monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value53.2
22：00U.S.A6Monthly construction expenditure rate‧forecast+0.4%‧Front value remains unchanged
22：00U.S.A7Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Manufacturing Index‧forecast56.5‧Previous value57.8
22：00U.S.A7Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Input price sub index‧forecast56.0‧Previous value55.0
22：00U.S.A7Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Employment sub index‧forecast55.1‧Previous value57.2
22：00U.S.A7Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)New order sub index‧Previous value63.5



News of the Week
U.S.A6The monthly housing completion index has increased compared to the previous month1.5%, to110.2
U.S.A7Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by58.9
Caixin China7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIAscend to51.1, at a four month high

Only after taking office in the United States10Scaramucci, the White House Communications Director, has been dismissed by Trump


7month31day
LondongoldMorning order price:1266.35
London gold afternoon fixing price:1267.55


Today's Introduction

The US dollar index fell to92.78, for2016year5month3The lowest point in recent days. The market doubts whether Trump can implement policy plans to promote economic growth, which has damaged the US dollar and the US dollar index7Monthly decline of approximately2.9%. The market is concerned that sluggish inflation in the United States may lead to the Federal Reserve delaying the pace of raising interest rates again before the end of the year, which also puts pressure on the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's policy statement last week made people feel that decision-makers are becoming more cautious about tightening policy paths. This week's US economic data includes Friday's employment report. Investors will also pay attention to the core personal consumption expenditures that will be announced later on Tuesday(PCE)Price index.


XAU London Gold - Gold prices rebounded strongly in July, beware of overbought pullbacks

Gold prices hit their highest point in nearly seven weeks on Monday, benefiting from a setback in the US dollar and economic data from the United States to the Federal Reserve Board(FED)Is it possible to raise interest rates again this year, casting a shadow over it. The price of gold once rose6month14The highest in recent days1270.98The US dollar is expected to rise this month2.1%, for2The largest monthly increase since the beginning of the month. However, weak physical demand may limit the increase in gold prices. Last week, India's gold price recorded its largest discount in seven months, as the rebound in gold prices limited retail demand, and the decline in real goods premiums in other Asian centers also failed to attract consumers during the off-season.

London gold trend, since7month10The day bottomed out at1204.45After the US dollar, the price of gold has continued to rise repeatedly and has risen to this day1270The six week high above the US dollar forms an upward channel, with the bottom located at1257The US dollar needs to be cautious. If the gold price breaks through this area in the future, there may be a risk of a short-term pullback. If calculated based on the cumulative increase in this round,38.2%and50%The level of feedback is1245and1237USD, extended to61.8%Then in the1230Horizontal. Additionally, it is worth noting that50Balance moving average1250Level, the brief sideways phase of gold prices in the previous week was also based on this indicator, so it is necessary to be cautious that if this area is missed in the future, it may deepen the pressure on gold prices to take back. As for the upward resistance, it is estimated that1275And the top of the channel1280The US dollar, the key will directly point to1291To the extent that1300USD level,4month17Daily and6month6Japan has also knocked on the door of this area, but has since made significant adjustments, with high positions at that time being1295.42and1295.97USD.

        
London Gold8Monthly forecast amplitude:
Resistance level:1304– 1221 – 1354 - 1388
Support bit:1252– 1234 – 1185 - 1119

London Gold8month1day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1262– 1275
Resistance level:1279– 1291 - 1303
Support bit:1257– 1252 - 1235


SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
7month10Day - 832.39ton
7month11Day - 832.39ton
7month12Day - 832.39ton
7month13Day - 828.84ton
7month14Day - 828.84ton
7month17Day - 827.07ton
7month18Day - 821.45ton
7month19Day - 816.13ton
7month20Day - 816.13ton
7month21Day - 813.76ton
7month24Day - 809.62ton
7month25Day - 800.45ton
7month26Day - 795.42ton
7month27Day - 791.88ton
7month28Day - 791.88ton
7month31Day - 791.88ton

8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
8Monthly goldoptionDue date:7month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year6month5day)

Global:33425.6(+50.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.3ton (-0.6ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1687.3ton (+7.2ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - Silver price exploration50MA

Silver prices rose on Monday6month29The highest in recent days16.88US dollars. From the chart, it can be seen that the relative strength index and random index are showing preliminary signs of decline. If they do not stabilize at the beginning of this week50Balance moving average16.64Above the US dollar, it is feared that silver prices will show a significant adjustment. Silver prices have already explored this indicator in June but have not broken through. Expected support below is25Balance moving average16.24and15.70The key is to explore the US dollar15The US dollar barrier. As for if silver prices continue to rise4month17Daily high18.65Calculate the initial cumulative decline,50%and61.8%The rebound level will be observed16.75and17.20Horizontal, larger resistance will be referenced6Monthly high17.75USD, next level material is18.40USD.         

London Silver8Monthly forecast amplitude:
Resistance level:17.90– 18.40 – 19.40 – 20.50
Support bit:16.20– 15.70 – 14.20 – 13.30

London Silver8month1day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.40– 17.10
Resistance level:17.30– 17.90
Support bit:16.20– 15.70
                                                                        

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
7month10Day - 10720.20ton
7month11Day - 10793.73ton
7month12Day - 10855.49ton
7month13Day - 10855.49ton
7month14Day - 10855.49ton
7month17Day - 10855.49ton
7month18Day - 10826.08ton
7month19Day - 10826.08ton
7month20Day - 10796.67ton
7month21Day - 10796.67ton
7month24Day - 10752.56ton
7month25Day - 10693.75ton
7month26Day - 10693.75ton
7month27Day - 10693.75ton
7month28Day - 10658.47ton
7month31Day - 10629.07ton

EUR euro - eurozone7Monthly core inflation rises to a four-year high

The initial data released by the Eurostat on Monday showed that the eurozone7The overall monthly inflation rate remained stable, but the core inflation rate, which has received much attention from the European Central Bank, rose to a four-year high and did not show the expected decline in the market. Another data released by the Eurostat shows that the eurozone6The monthly unemployment rate has decreased2009The lowest level since the beginning of the year confirms the strong recovery of the eurozone economy and gives the European Central Bank more confidence to tighten monetary policy in the autumn. Eurozone announced by Eurostat7Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial value increased compared to the same period last year1.3%The increase is related to6The month remained unchanged and consistent with the estimates of analysts surveyed by Reuters. but7The monthly core inflation rate has increased from the previous month's1.2%Ascend to1.3%The market was originally expected to drop to1.1%. The core inflation rate does not include unprocessed food and energy projects. Due to the rise in oil prices,7The price increase of monthly energy products has risen2.2%，6Month is1.9%. The price increase of other industrial products has also risen0.5%, higher than6Of0.4%. The price increase of food and tobacco products remains stable1.4%The increase in service prices is determined by1.6%lower1.5%. The Eurostat has separately announced that,6The monthly Eurozone unemployment rate has declined to9.1%Below5Monthly9.2%, creating2009year2The lowest point since the beginning of the month, also lower than market estimates9.2%. The Eurostat will also5Monthly Eurozone unemployment rate from9.3%Downward revision to9.2%. Except for Greece, which has not yet updated its unemployment rate data, the two countries with the highest unemployment rates in the eurozone--Italy and Spain6The monthly unemployment rate has declined.

As seen in the technical chart2015year1Since the beginning of the month, the euro has emerged from a triple bottom pattern, with three bottoms:2015year3Of1.0456，2015year12Of1.0538, and this year1Of1.0339Therefore, the euro can stabilize at1.17Above the horizontal neckline, the technical side will consolidate the further strength of the euro. Next level resistance reference200Weekly moving average1.1805The key will directly point to1.20Gateway. Additionally, by2014Annual high1.3992To the low point of this year1.0339Calculate the cumulative decline of,38.2%and50%The rebound amplitude is1.1740and1.2170Horizontal. The following support will be reviewed later1.1580The important support is the position of the upward trend line1.1540As long as the level remains stable above this area in the future, the overall upward trend of the euro is expected to continue.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.1710 –1.1805 –1.2000
support1.1580 –1.1500*
                                                        

Focus:
8month1day(two): Germany7Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧Eurozone Q2GDPInitial valuation
8month2day(three): Eurozone6monthPPI
8month3day(four): Italy7monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧France7monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧Germany7monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone7monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value‧eurozone6Monthly retail sales


Related news
France7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is54.9
Italy7Monthly manufacturing industryPMISlightly descending55.1
Germany7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is58.1
Spain7Monthly manufacturing industryPMInewspaper54.0
Germany7The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for menstruation is5.7%
Germany7The total unemployed population without seasonal adjustment per month is251.8ten thousand people
Germany7Seasonal adjustment of menstrual cycle reduces unemployment population9,000People, to253.7ten thousand people
eurozone7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is56.6


JPY yen - USD touch14Low for months, suppressed by political turmoil

The US dollar index fell to14Month low point92.78As investors further bet that the political turmoil in Washington will impact the Federal Reserve of the United States(FED)The prospect of another interest rate hike within the year came after US President Trump fired newly appointed White House Communications Director Scalamucci(AnthonyScaramucci)。 US dollar index7For the fifth consecutive month, the monthly line has fallen, which is2010year12Month to2011year4The longest consecutive decline since the beginning of the month. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME)ofFedwatchTool, expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again within the year25The probability of basis points has increased from last month's50%lower47%about.

As seen in the technical chart,MACDFalling below the signal line, relative strength indicators and random indices are still declining, indicating that the exchange rate is still weak. The trend of the double top pattern is still clearly reflected, with the two tops being5month11Of114.36and7month11Of114.49, failed to break through114.50Under the resistance, the road has been declining for the past two weeks. Currently supported by250The Tianping moving average, previously in June and April, also experienced a decline in exchange rates250The Tianping moving average has not been clearly broken below, and there has been a strong rebound since then. Therefore, if this trip can eventually fall below the current position110.20of250The Tianping moving average will further confirm the continuation of the downward trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. In addition, the neckline position of the bipedal form, i.e6month14day108.81, will be another key level, the next level is108. Keep paying attention upwards114.50Horizontal, for closer resistance, refer to25Balance moving average112.50and113.60This can be seen as a suitable area for re establishing short positions in the US dollar, breaking through115Stop loss at the checkpoint.
        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance112.50 –113.60 –115.00*
support110.20 –108.80 –108.00
  
Focus:
8month2day(three): Japan7Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
8month3day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
8month4day(five): Japan6Monthly overtime pay


Related news
Japan7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value drops to52.1



GBP pound - Pay attention to the UK interest rate discussion this week, which may limit the rise of the pound

There are numerous economic data to be released this week, including purchasing manager indices from multiple countries(PMI)Trade balance, employment reports, and retail sales data, among which the market focus is on the US non-farm employment report and the Federal Reserve's key referencePCEPrice index. In addition, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, which is particularly noteworthy as major central banks signal their intention to reduce monetary stimulus. Bank of England President Carney6Yue once hinted that the central bank may be approaching interest rate hikes; And in the6At the policy meeting in the month, the Bank of England's decision-makers surprised the market, with three out of eight voting committee members in favor of raising interest rates. However, as data shows that economic growth has lost momentum and this year's salary increase has disappointed, it has suppressed market speculation that decision-makers will soon raise interest rates. Market participants generally expect that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates at its meeting on Thursday0.25%At a record low level, while maintaining the same scale of quantitative easing. The Bank of England will also release its quarterly inflation report on Thursday, and analysts expect the bank to slightly increase its inflation forecast but lower its forecast for economic growth.

GBP/USD exchange rate6month21Daily touch below1.2587Afterwards, the trend of the pound continued to rise repeatedly in recent months, forming an upward trend line, which is currently located at1.3010Technically, caution should be taken in the future. If this area is clearly lost, there is expected to be a significant adjustment in the pound. Below is a larger support reference50The current position of the balance moving average1.2895and1.28Horizontal. On the contrary, if the flag shape continues to rise again, the golden ratio will be calculated based on last year's6month24Daily high1.5018to10month7Daily low1.1450accumulate3568Calculation of point drop,50%The rebound level is1.3230Expand to61.8%Then it is1.3655. Other resistance can be referred to1.35and100Weekly moving average1.3540Horizontal.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3230 –1.3500 –1.3655
support1.3000 –1.2920 - 1.2800 –1.2720
                                                                        

Focus:
8month2day(three): UK7monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI
8month3day(four): UK7monthMarkit/CIPSService industryPMI‧britain8Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution‧Scale of quantitative easing‧MPCVoting results


Related news
NATIONWIDE: UK7Monthly housing prices have increased compared to the previous month0.3%，00Increase compared to the same period last year2.9%


CHF Swiss franc - The Swiss franc continues to strengthen

In terms of USD/CHF, USD/CHF will continue to be weak, and the next target will be towards last year5Monthly low0.9440If there is significant support, you can refer to it2015year8Monthly low0.9251To the extent that0.9150Horizontal. As for the resistance above, it is10Balance moving average0.9635and0.9810To the next level100Balance moving average0.9860Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9635 - 0.9810 - 0.9860
support0.9440 –0.9251 –0.9150


Focus:
8month2day(three)Swiss Q3 Consumer Confidence‧Switzerland6Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland7Monthly manufacturing industryPMI


AUD AUD - The central bank maintains interest rates unchanged and raises opposition to the strengthening of the Australian dollar

The Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate remained unchanged this week and raised the tone against the strengthening of the Australian dollar, stating that a rise in the exchange rate will further suppress consumer prices and put pressure on growth and employment prospects. AUD from6Since the beginning of the month, it has jumped by about8%, reaching a two-year high, mainly driven by the weakening of the US dollar. As a response, the Bank of Australia8Insert a paragraph in the text of the monthly policy statement, stating that "an increase in exchange rates is expected to lead to lower economic activity and inflation recovery than current estimates." Data released last week showed that inflation rates are still lower than the set by the Bank of Australia2-3%The target interval. The Bank of Australia stated in its policy statement that, taking into account the information obtained, the Central Bank Committee has concluded that maintaining monetary policy unchanged at this meeting will be beneficial for sustained economic growth and achieving future inflation targets. The central bank also stated that it still expects inflation to gradually rise and expects the annual growth rate of the Australian economy to be3%Left and right. Most analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the Bank of Australia to maintain stable interest rates until2018Mid year.

The Australian dollar was briefly suppressed on Tuesday as the Bank of Australia warned that a strong Australian dollar could harm the economy. The Australian dollar is hovering around0.80Near the checkpoint, still close to the two-year high reached last week0.8066. The RBA also played down the possibility of cutting interest rates to curb the Aussie dollar, mainly because of concerns about intensifying the debt driven housing foam.

In terms of technical trends, the Australian dollar is breaking through against the US dollar0.78There is a noticeable extension of power after the checkpoint. since2016Since the third quarter of the year, the exchange rate trend has outlined a set of head, shoulder, and bottom patterns, with the neckline positioned at0.7780As long as it remains stable above this area, the Australian dollar is expected to continue its upward trend. At the depth of the right shoulder450Point calculation, technology extension goals can be seen0.8230; If the amplitude of the head shape620Point calculation, mid-term goals will point towards0.84Horizontal. As for the current resistance in close proximity, attention can be paid to it50Monthly average line0.8070. On the other hand, the following supports looking back0.78and0.7720The larger supporting material is0.7640Horizontal.


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.8000 –0.8070 –0.8230
support0.7800 - 0.7720 - 0.7640
                                                                        

Related news
The Bank of Australia announces the maintenance of benchmark interest rates at1.50%unchanged


Focus:
8month2day(three): Australia6Monthly building permit rate‧Civil Residential Building Permit
8month3day(four): Australia6monthAIGService Industry Performance Index‧Trade balance of goods and services‧Import‧Export
8month4day(five): Australia6Monthly retail sales rate‧Q2 Retail Trade Season Rate in Australia



NZD New Zealand dollars - New York dollar presents adjusted risk

As shown in the chart, both the relative strength index and the random index have rebounded, whileMACDThe pointer has also fallen the signal line, and it is estimated that the New Zealand dollar is beginning to experience a correction correction correction against the US dollar. Below is an estimate supported by0.74and0.7260The key is250Balance moving average0.7140and0.70Gateway. If calculated based on the cumulative increase since May,38.2%and50%The level of feedback will be observed separately0.7270and0.7190Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then in the0.71. On the other hand, the resistance above focuses on100Monthly average line0.7550If it can break through and rise, the next target will see0.7745To the extent that0.78Horizontal.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7500 - 0.7550 - 0.7745
support0.7130 –0.7000 - 0.6800/40


Focus:
7month31day(one): New Zealand6Monthly building permit rate‧New Zealand7monthNBNZBusiness confidence index‧NBNZBusiness Activity Index
8month2day(three): New Zealand Season 2HLFSunemployment rate‧HLFSQuarterly employment growth rate‧HLFSEmployment participation rate


CAD Cad - Be cautious of Canadian dollar callbacks

As shown in the technical chart, the relative strength index and random index have repeatedly fallen into oversold areas. With the narrow range of exchange rates in the past two days, the above two indicators have shown preliminary signs of recovery; Therefore, it is necessary to prevent short-term exchange rates or make adjustments first. Looking back at the resistance above1.2590and1.27The larger resistance is25Balance moving average1.2850. The target for the upcoming trial will be until last year5Monthly low1.2458. If so2014year7Monthly low1.0616to2016year1Monthly high1.4689Calculate the cumulative increase in price, 61.8%The level of callback will be seen as1.2175。

        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2590 - 1.2700 - 1.2850
support1.2458 –1.2175 –1.2000
                                                                        

Focus:   
8month1day(two): Canada7monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI
8month4day(five): Canada7Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧trade balance‧Export‧Import‧IveyPMI


Related news
Canada6Monthly industrial product prices have declined compared to the previous month1.0%, up from the same period last year3.3%



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinion, sincerely for readers to refer to; I would like to remind readers that financial market fluctuations are unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks