Xiao Zikun:White House chaos suppresses the US dollar,Gold hitting a strong new high in non US currencies

The biggest increase yesterday was the euro against the US dollar, which closed higher1.18. Since entering an upward trend at the beginning of this year, the euro against the US dollar has successively broken through important resistance levels, and has now broken through a two-year range of fluctuations. The current exchange rate is the highest point in two years. The strong exchange rate of the euro, coupled with the current fundamentals, especially the European Central Bank's decision to end its loose monetary policy and enter a cycle of interest rate hikes, is expected to lead Europe and America out of the medium to long term upward trend. If this judgment is correct, then the market trend that has emerged since the beginning of this year will be the first wave of mid to long term gains in Europe and America. From Wave Theory to Weixinxzk8698Let's analyze it, it's the first wave of gains. Based on the current strength, Europe and America are expected to reach1.20. Of course, the direct reason for yesterday's significant rise in Europe and America was the good performance of the economic data released by the eurozone, which had a strong driving effect on bulls.

　　

On Monday, taking office only10The sudden dismissal of the Director of the White House Communications Office by Trump has heightened uncertainty about the political outlook in the United States. Affected by the news, the US dollar fell to last year in response5The lowest level in the month. The week before Scaramucci's departure can be considered one of the most tumultuous weeks for President Trump's presidency. During this period, the significant efforts of the Republican Party to reform the US healthcare system failed in Congress, and Trump's spokesperson and former chief of staff both resigned. Internal conflicts in the White House have become increasingly public. Since the beginning of this year, the US dollar has fallen by more than8%Not only did it spit out all the gains after the election, but it also fell below the pre election level.
　　
The Trump administration just experienced an important personnel change last weekend. Trump announced on Twitter that Secretary of Homeland Security Kelly will replace White House Chief of Staff Pribbs. Pribbs resigned after only six months in office, making him the shortest serving Chief of Staff in modern American history. And now, with the resignation of the new communication director, Scaramucci, the Trump administration is revivingxzk8698In a short period of time, consecutive "major cleanups" will undoubtedly quickly intensify market concerns about the US political arena! For many people, this situation reflects a growing concern about the chaos plaguing Washington, many of which were caused by Trump and are constantly weakening the government's grand economic plans. The Trump administration has faced one crisis after another, from firing former FBI Director Komi, to allegations of collusion with Russia, and to the failure of Republicans to repeal the Obama healthcare reform bill, which has led toforeign exchangeThe market has gradually formed a consensus of selling the US dollar. The report shows that investor confidence in Trump has fallen to its lowest point, and even if Trump achieves a little success, the market may face significant correction.

　　

The medium-term trend of the US dollar index continues to be a new low, and the current trend and momentum of the US dollar index are both downward. With the strengthening of downward momentum, the weekly decline of the US dollar index has continued to create a new medium-term low. According to Xiao Zikun's hourly chart trend, the previous trading day of the US dollar index was93.25After slight adjustments around the price range, the short-term trend of innovative lows continued. At present, both the trend and momentum direction are downward, and the bearish outlook on the US dollar index remains unchanged for the day. At the same time, it can be further extended to a sustained period in the medium term.
　　
USD/The Japanese yen daily chart continues7month11The downward trend within the range in recent days, with a focus on the lower edge of the range in the near future109.50Support the US dollar before it breaks through/The medium-term range pattern of the Japanese yen continues. From the hourly chart trend, the US dollar/The Japanese yen has continued7month27The recent decline. dollar/The short-term decline of the Japanese yen110.20Supported by oversold rebound, expected USD/The yen will rebound to111.00Continued obstruction in the vicinity7month26The fluctuating downward trend in recent days. Short term resistance110.80,111.30; brace110.20,109.50。
　　
AUD/The daily chart of the US dollar surged to0.8065Encountering resistance callback, the current callback is different from7month4Compared to the strong climb in recent days, the Australian dollar has been noticeably weaker, with a pullback to0.7950The mid-term upward trend supported by nearby support continues. From the hourly chart trend, the Australian dollar/The US dollar retreated to last Friday0.7935Supported by stability and recovery, the Australian dollar is currently operating within a range with the support of the moving average system. The Australian dollar hit last week's high0.8065The impact of strong downward momentum on the Australian dollar before breaking through will have some fluctuations in the short term. Short line support0.7960,0.7930; resistance0.8065,0.8100。

　　

Euro/The medium-term record high momentum of the US dollar continues. The recent two trading days of the euro have seen two consecutive bullish candlesticks, indicating its medium-term strength. From the hourly chart trend, the euro/The US dollar peaked at last week's high on Monday1.1775After slight adjustments nearby, it directly broke through resistance and continued the short-term upward trend. Euro up to1.1845Defeated callback, expected to be reversed within the day1.1785The short-term upward trend supported by nearby stocks continues. Short line support1.1760,1.1720; resistance1.1850,1.1920。
　　
USD/The Canadian dollar hit a new low in the mid-term decline1.2410Afterwards, there are signs of building a new secondary rhythm around the low point, which helps to sustain the mid-term decline. From the hourly chart trend, the US dollar/The Canadian dollar has been around since last week1.2410-1.2580Operating within the range, in USD/On Monday, the Canadian dollar gained support along the lower edge of the range and operated in an inward upward pattern within the range. Currently, it is operating in the middle of the adjustment range, and the short-term turbulence continues. Received USD/The mid-term weakness of the Canadian dollar is expected to have an impact on the US dollar/The weakness in the mid cycle of resistance near the upper edge of the Canadian dollar range continues. Short term resistance1.2540,1.2580; brace1.2430,1.2410。
　　Author: Xiao Zikun,WeChat:xzk8698