Fang Yuan:5.9Gold continues to remain bearish under pressure, while crude oil falls in the short term, leading to a stronger market today...

The latest opinion survey by the Federal Reserve's senior loan commissioners shows that the intensity of tightening policies is greater than it appears. The proportion of credit officers who reported tightening loan standards in the first quarter only slightly increased, but in-depth research on the data indicates that the environment is tightening. In other words, the number of banks that have raised credit standards has not significantly increased, but compared to the previous survey, those that are currently or plan to raise credit standards plan to increase credit costs and increase loan restrictions. It is expected that the peak impact of the tightening environment will be2023Q4 and2024The first quarter of the year resulted in a significant decline in loans, which is consistent with our prediction that the economy will enter a recession at that time.


US Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that, as shown in the employment report, the US economy remains "robust". I believe there is a path to reduce inflation in the context of a continuously strong labor market, but there are certainly risks. The possibility of economic recession cannot be ruled out, but she believes that this is not the most likely development path. The Federal Reserve has realized that tightening credit conditions will slow down the economy and has taken this into account. The diversity of the banking system is a real advantage, and regional banks create a competitive situation. A US default will affect the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency. There is no better choice than to raise the debt ceiling.


according toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is76.6%Interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is23.4%； reach7The probability of maintaining monthly interest rates at the current level is54.2%Accumulated interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is32.3%Accumulated interest rate increase25The probability of a basis point is13.6%。



goldMarket trend analysis:


Gold Yesterday Little Yang StarKThe line fluctuates and closes, with little room for movement, reaching its highest point2029 minimum2015.Backdraft confirmation of last Friday's low break2030The nearby resistance is still compressed and falls back to the neutral position. From the daily and weekly perspectives, the short-term trend is temporarily in a state of adjustment, with potential for fluctuations. Previously, it rose and fell back, forming a combination of yin swallowing yangKLine. This week, waiting for a continued decline pattern to appear, yesterday entered a partial correction, which is also a process of patching up the shadow. From the perspective of rebound space. Relatively weak. Coupled with the downward trend of the US dollar and its recovery, it may suppress the conversion and decline of gold prices.



From the current trading situation, the bullish trend of the Dayin and Little Star lines remains unchanged, but the trend has not yet fully turned. However, from the main structure of the chart, I personally believe that the top of the stage is a high probability. Yesterday's low frequency to high rise and fall back, overall in line with expectations, but the pace of operation is too slow and reaching29The time is too late. Currently, the daily chart is still running below the five day moving average. If there is at least one opportunity to test the bottom in the future, the focus is on four hours. The price is running above the bottom line, suppressed by the middle track line, which can be understood as a temporary correction. By last night, it was expected to rise and form a small three negative. It is expected to continue to rise and fall within the day, but the break space is also limited. The hourly chart temporarily fluctuates and operates on the upper and lower lines, Based on the four hour chart and daily chart, it is expected that there will be another draw in the future200Therefore, it can be concluded from a comprehensive analysis that high altitude is the main factor and short duration is the secondary factor.


Golden Operation Strategy:30Xiaocang is empty,2035Stop loss2040, Objective2003(The specific location is subject to a firm offer)



As concerns about the US economic recession begin to subside, the UScrude oilThe price continues from last Friday(May 5th)Increase. United States4Better than expected monthly employment report, weaker US dollar, and OPEC+Will be on6The expectation of reducing supply at the next meeting in the month has given impetus to a rebound in oil prices.



Analysis of crude oil market trend:


The crude oil daily line began to slow down after hitting the early pressure band after a continuous rebound,4The current price remains at a high and fluctuating level in the hourly trendKThere are signs of the line gradually falling below the short-term moving average, and after continuous fluctuations, there are signs of the technical form gradually weakening, indicating a certain degree of adjustment. There is currently a certain degree of deviation in the hourly trendKThe line also gradually began to operate under pressure, with a short period moving average.

Crude oil operation strategy:72.9-73Near empty, stop loss73.7, Objective72-71.5(Specific firm offer shall prevail)


In addition to investing, life also includes poetry and distance. The article lacks too much fancy language and chicken soup. I believe that what every reader lacks is not chicken soup, but practical analysis and strong theory. I am Teacher Fang Yuan. If there are orders in the warehouse or there are serious losses in the near future, you can add Fang Yuan [official WeChat account]:fy1987668,Official account: Fang Yuanshuijin] For help, I will take the time to give you some suggestions for reference. I hope this article can give you some help in your transaction. Finally, I wish you a happy transaction.