Fang Yuan:5.4Analysis strategy for today's market trend of gold "breaking new historical highs"!

Federal Reserve Board3Announced on the th that the federal funds rate target range will be raised25Bps to5%to5.25%The level of. This is from last year3The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for the tenth consecutive time since the beginning of the month. The Federal Reserve issued a statement after a two-day monetary policy meeting, continuing to emphasize that the US banking system is sound and resilient, and that the Federal Reserve is highly concerned about inflation risks. However, this statement removed the wording "some additional policy tightening may be appropriate" and "forming a sufficiently restrictive monetary policy stance", leading to speculation that this may be a signal of suspending interest rate hikes.


The resolution of the bankruptcy of the First Republic Bank brought an end to this period of severe stress. And also reiterated that the banking system is resilient and has improved overall; The outflow of deposits from major banks has stabilized, emphasizing the need to strengthen supervision. The outlook for the US economy is also growing at a moderate pace, although there may be a mild recession. However, in the short term, the positive factors have been digested and weakened, and gold prices have shifted towards technical resistance adjustments. After entering the second half of the year or the end of the third quarter, gold prices will once again embark on a major bull market.


During the day, we will first focus on the announcement of the European Central Bank's interest rate resolution and its President Lagarde's monetary policy press conference, which is expected to put pressure on the US dollar and boost gold prices. Afterwards, we will focus on the United States4Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs(ten thousand people)From the United States to4month29Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week(ten thousand people), USA3Monthly trade account(USD100mn)According to yesterday's data, there may be a bearish impact on gold prices, but the impact is expected to be limited. Overall, gold prices still tend to strengthen during the day.


goldMarket trend analysis:


At the beginning of the week, the layout was direct1980Frontline Ganduo, on Tuesday1980Continue to work more, Wednesday is the direct layout2010There are multiple orders at the current price, and the price has also experienced a wave of explosive upward trend as scheduled, reaching its highest point2080On the front line, keep up with the ideas and count the money.


In terms of gold, the price of gold rose significantly again yesterday and closed positive. Today, it opened high and rose to a new historical high. However, there has been a significant correction from the high point, almost regaining all the gains at one point. The pressure for correction is high, and the bullish signals in the attached indicators show signs of weakening. The focus is still on whether the future market can remain stable above the historical high point, as the formation near the historical high point3The top pressure has indeed caused the market to fall back when encountering obstacles, and has become the key until now. Above this, it is bullish, while below this, it is volatile and adjusted, or when encountering obstacles, it may fall back and covet to fill in the gap3Month gap.


Technically speaking, the daily line receives a small sun pillar, and the cloth belt opens,KDJThe indicator gold fork has increased in volume, and overall, the price is still on the upward trend. The price is far from the five day moving average and is running above the upper track of the Bollinger belt. This kind of derailment will not continue for too long, as there is a demand for price correction.


4From the hour chart, it can be seen that the Bollinger belt has a large opening,KDJThe indicator wants to form a dead fork. From the hour chart, it can be seen that the Bollinger belt has a large opening,KDJThe indicator forms a dead cross. First, pay attention to the correction of the callback. It is expected that the above behavior will continue after a small callback, and the amplitude will not be too large. Within the day, pay attention to the above behavior2072/2087/2100Frontline pressure situation, follow below2046/2031/2022


Gold Operation Strategy: Intraday Trading Locking2080-2030Carry out high-altitude and low-altitude thinking (for reference only, specific actual offer shall prevail)

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crude oilMarket trend analysis:


The crude oil daily line further declined and declined, after83.53Construct a phased high point, and after being blocked, convert and fall back to form a wave of continuous returns, and take back all the previous upward space. This morning, the market opened with a new low, but the low was accompanied by a quick rebound. Lowest to63.80.At present, it has been withdrawn to67.70.The sharp decline in the early market is difficult to continue. After the rebound correction, the European market is the second entry point. After a series of negative daily declines, one should also be cautious of constructing a false double bottom rebound after reaching a low point.


4The small three waves of the hour chart have completed the spatial release. Currently approaching the low point again, usually the first time it reaches the previous low point, there will be a significant rebound. It is also possible to construct a double bottom, regardless of whether the construction is successful or not. At least one wave of pseudo pumping construction will be carried out. As for the subsequent form transformation. Whether it is a stable rebound or a further downward continuation after a rebound correction depends on the intraday situation. The fluctuation base is relatively large, and there are many short-term opportunities. Combining intraday patterns to grasp the entry point.1~2The timely bagging of dollars is not a problem.68.50-69.0It is the first resistance point, and if the Asian market touches it, it can be briefly hit once. The target is1~2The US dollar is either reduced or lost. For other positions, please refer to the temporary site.  




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