Dingsheng Jinshi:7.25黄金走势分析，加息再度降温，多头恐再显...

——美联储加息愈演愈烈，最终到底加息多少影响到gold走势？——


　　上周，黄金小幅收涨，这是黄金价格连续五周下跌后收得的首周上涨，一方面，上周欧美经济数据表现较差，市场对全球经济衰退的预期升温，地缘局势持续紧张，给黄金价格提供了一些避险支撑，另一方面，市场普遍预期本周美联储将仅加息75个基点，降息100点的预期再度降温，美债收益率下降，也给金价提供支撑。本周三的美联储利率决议将是本周市场关注的焦点所在，目前而言，美联储到7Monthly interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is79.9%Interest rate hike100The probability of a basis point is20.1%，尽管美联储很有可能在本周会议上加息75个基点，但由于这已被市场完全消化，因此不太可能推动美元升至新高。


　　尽管欧洲经济面临日益增长的下行风险，但欧洲央行仍将通胀视为即将到来的最大威胁，日益严重的通胀威胁促使欧洲央行出乎市场意料地全面加息50个基点，而不是此前预计的25个基点，使得欧元区存款机制利率一举摆脱了负利率，目前为零利率，这是欧洲央行11年来首次加息。此举为欧元兑美元汇率提供了新的动能，打压了美元，进而推动黄金价格重回1700美元上方，需要提醒是的是，美国二季度GDP将于本周四出炉，也是本周市场关注的重点。


　　黄金价格上周触底反弹，价格按照预期下探1680一线后企稳反弹，价格在经历了连续的下跌，终究未能下破1680这一重要支撑，最终以阳线收盘结束上周的行情。日线级别来看，布林带有收口迹象，价格在下轨附近受到支撑企稳，短线价格再度下行是有点难度的，而且市场目前基本消化了美联储本周加息75基点的影响，所以即便加息落地，也很难对黄金形成太大的压力。4小时，布林带开口向上，价格自下轨附近强势反弹，突破中轨阻力后回踩继续拉升，短线走势上震荡偏多，日内有望延续上涨势头，操作思路上回调做多为主，下方关注1718-1720Frontline support.


Golden Operation Strategy:


Gold: Callback1720Long nearby, stop loss1712, Objective1745。


　　crude oilLatest market analysis:


Analysis of crude oil news: Monday7month25日亚市盘初，美油微涨，现报93.8美元，现在处于200日均线处支撑，尽管油价上周五跌超1.6%，因欧盟允许俄罗斯向第三国转售俄石油，缓解全球能源安全风险，猴痘意情也为空头助力，但地缘紧张局势升级，俄乌停战似遥遥无期，英国将加大对乌军支持，进一步加大地缘政治的不确定性。依然支撑油价，油价跌幅受限。


　　原油技术面分析：原油上周五震荡回落收盘在100.0Below, the daily chart oscillates in a cycle of yin and yang, starting to turn negative after three consecutive sunny days, while below the neckline92.80There is still a certain distance to go. Currently, we have not lost, and there is no sign of unilateral continuation in the short term. The weekly line has closed, and the small cycle has entered a period of oscillation. The weekly line is expected to end with oscillation.4After the opening of the hourly chart yesterday100.80The nearby sideways market is under pressure and then falls back. If you want to continue the pullback, the secondary high point of the small cycle cannot be recovered, and it is also a resistance point for the middle track of the Bollinger Bands.1The hourly chart is accompanied by small-scale consecutive negative retracements, while the high point of the step is the short-term critical point, and the resistance point is at98附近一带。综合来看，原油今日操作思路上鼎盛金师建议以反弹高空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期重点关注96.5-97.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below92.0-91.5Frontline support.


Serve as an analyst and commentator for well-known financial channels such as Sina Finance and Globalforeign exchange》Professional contributors to several well-known financial forums such as "Huitong Net" and "Zhongjin Net", specializing in short, medium, and long term operations of gold, crude oil, and silver. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market. Suggestions are for reference only; This article is original by Dingsheng Jinshi, who carefully writes every analysis and conveys valuable investment concepts. If there is any similarity, it is purely plagiarism. Readers should be discerning and respect originality!