Guide Metallographer:7.18美联储进入静默期，金价或迎来技术性修复

　　goldMessage interpretation:

Monday(7month18day)，现货黄金反弹，美元指数创一周新低至107.18，进一步脱离上周创下的近20Annual high109.303。多名美联储官员上周暗示，他们不赞成本月加快升息步伐。美联储已进入本月政策会议前的缄默期。若最终证明美联储口是心非，将被外界解读为病急乱投医，并损及美联储信誉。

The Federal Reserve7月会议上的加息预期回落到75个基点，而不是一些人在6月通胀数据高涨后预测的100Basis points.CME的“联储观察”工具最新显示，美联储本月加息100个基点的概率从上周中期的80%Reduce to30%。

　　直到上周初，传统观点还认为美联储7Monthly interest rate hike75个基点，而在确认6monthCPI同比暴涨9.1%后，关于加息幅度高于预期的猜测开始渗透市场。由于燃料、食品、住房和大宗商品价格飙升，美国通胀处于1981年以来最火热阶段。乌克兰战争提升能源价格，加剧了全球供应链中断。

Focus on spot gold market today:

United States7monthNAHBReal estate market index;

　　英国央行委员桑德斯发表讲话。

　　指南金师提别提醒：周一市场的基本面非常平淡，几乎没有值得关注的数据和消息公布，所以影响金价的力度应该有限，不过目前市场把焦点放在了下周美联储的加息身上，预计短期之内还是会持续承压。

Technical analysis of gold:

　　黄金价格整体而言近期走势始终处于弱势格局，价格自1880附近开始连续五周下跌，中途虽然有过几次反弹，但很快又回吐了涨幅。日线级别，布林带开口向下，价格沿着下轨震荡下行，目前来看，虽然上周一度跌破1700一线，但最终还是收盘于1700关口上方，下方存在一定的买盘支撑。4小时，布林带开口向下，价格在下轨附近受到支撑，连续阳线向上反弹，短线价格有望继续走高，不过整体大方向还是偏弱，日内大概率会是反弹之后再度下行，形成低位震荡格局，短线操作思路先看一波反弹，上方关注1725A line of resistance.

　　小时图结构上，上周黄金极端情绪化弱势下跌，且在1700一线反复的争夺，虽然奠定了技术回弹基础，但整体偏弱状态也是一目了然的。目前小时图级别已经展开明显的回弹预期，日内上方可先关注1716短压，预期可能会有争夺，但有回撤也不会很大，下方可关注1707、1703-00一带支撑即可，上方1715预期会随着时间的推移而加大突破概率，尤其是如果美指能够持续表现调整趋势，则黄金上破回升空间会更大，届时上方可关注1723-25短压争夺，重点则看向小周期趋势线1730附近压力。本周操作上，主思路还是以择低搏短多为主，级别暂定技术性反弹，不要期待过大，但可保留回弹预期，任何空单依旧不考虑参与。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方关注1722-1727USD resistance, follow below1696-1702USD support.

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