Guide Metallographer:7.18今日黄金走势分析，销售数据向好

　　goldMessage interpretation:

　　上周五，美国6Monthly retail sales rate recorded1%, expected0.8%, Previous value-0.30%。数据减缓了市场对经济衰退的担忧，提高了美联储本月大规模加息的概率。零售销售数据显示人们仍在消费，美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值录得51.1, expected49.9, Previous value50，消费者信心相对稳定，但仍接近历史低点，同时，目前美国消费者个人财务状况继续恶化，达到2011年以来的最低水平。

　　美联储方面，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克强调了有序政策行动的重要性，暗示他不赞成在本月晚些时候的会议上加息100个基点。圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德表示，当前美国经济表现依然很好，GDP数据或许未准确反映经济状况。此外他表示，对美国是否陷入衰退持怀疑态度。他认为核心个人消费支出(PCE)可能尚未见顶，美联储现在应该在年底前把政策利率目标定在3.75%。旧金山联储主席戴利表示，我们说的不是将利率提高到极高的水平，更可能的是在3%左右。我们开始看到通胀正在下降的迹象，希望看到年底前通胀率“降低一些”，到2023年将有更多改善。零售销售数据显示人们仍在消费，经济衰退不会是可能出现的结果之一，现在问题是降低通货膨胀。

Focus on spot gold market today:

United States7monthNAHBReal estate market index;

　　英国央行委员桑德斯发表讲话。

　　指南金师提别提醒：周一市场的基本面非常平淡，几乎没有值得关注的数据和消息公布，所以影响金价的力度应该有限，不过目前市场把焦点放在了下周美联储的加息身上，预计短期之内还是会持续承压。

Technical analysis of gold:

　　黄金从盘面走势来看在周线上连续下跌五周，目前在周线上持续处于偏弱走势中。但是需要注意的是周线目前的乖离率稍微有一些偏大，价格距离前期的联排底部1680一带差的也不算太远，这可能会限制黄金短期在周线走势上的跌势。在日线走势上目前持续维持在低位震荡下行走势上中，K线继续承压短周期均线运行在日线上的下跌可能暂时还没有走完。短线走势在连续横盘震荡之后技术形态有所修复可能会有一定的反弹。但反弹力度有限，美元的强势走势使得目前黄金价格很难走出大的反弹行情。日线上，上一个交易日行情强势下行且收大阴线，显示短期空头较为强势。指标上看，20日均线延续下行，空头趋势有望延续。

From gold4小时图来看，目前形态上暂时止跌，下方支撑则关注1697Defeat1697则将下周将继续朝着1680附近挺进。由于macd一直处于底背弛状态，破前期后也容易马上回升反弹，这也是可以抓低多的原因之一，保持低位震荡弱势不变；黄金小时线级别：隔夜走低，上周五早盘反弹受压382Dividing resistance1716下行一波，欧盘支撑1700一线关口偏弱整理，虽未失守隔夜低点1697，不过价格也未破早盘高点，那么结合前面的弱势结构，目前还处于一定弱势，容易先探底再拉升，继续底部整理；综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期关注1720-1725Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1697-1692Frontline support.

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