Guide Metallographer:7.18今日黄金走势分析，美元高位回落

　　goldMessage interpretation:

　　周一亚市早盘，国际黄金价格维持在1710dollar/盎司上方运行。上周公布的美国6monthCPI报告显示通胀居高不下，自1981year11月以来通胀重回9.1%，且上周五公布的美国6月零售销售数据增幅超预期，录得1%的增长，表明尽管通胀居高不下，但消费支出仍然保持稳定，这进一步支持美联储加息的决策。值得注意的是，即使在市场对美联储7Monthly interest rate increase100基点的预期下，金价未能下破1700dollar/盎司，表明多头有一定的支撑。在下周美联储利率决议之前，本周将进入市场静默期，在缺乏明显的消息面的情况下，金价走技术性行情的概率增大，因此若在1700dollar/盎司的整数附近构筑底部，则需留意技术性反弹行情的机会。

　　上周美国总统拜登的中东之行并未取得有效的成果，而伊朗的核谈判又陷入僵局，伊朗方面称美国利用“伊朗恐惧症”在中东制造危机。俄乌问题仍在持续，乌克兰称俄罗斯正在策划新一轮针对乌克兰的大规模军事行动。来自地缘政治的避险需求仍然存在，金价有望受益于避险资金买盘的推动迎来上涨行情。

Focus on spot gold market today:

United States7monthNAHBReal estate market index;

　　英国央行委员桑德斯发表讲话。

　　指南金师提别提醒：周一市场的基本面非常平淡，几乎没有值得关注的数据和消息公布，所以影响金价的力度应该有限，不过目前市场把焦点放在了下周美联储的加息身上，预计短期之内还是会持续承压。

Technical analysis of gold:

　　黄金从盘面走势来看在周线上连续下跌五周，目前在周线上持续处于偏弱走势中。但是需要注意的是周线目前的乖离率稍微有一些偏大，价格距离前期的联排底部1680一带差的也不算太远，这可能会限制黄金短期在周线走势上的跌势。在日线走势上目前持续维持在低位震荡下行走势上中，K线继续承压短周期均线运行在日线上的下跌可能暂时还没有走完。短线走势在连续横盘震荡之后技术形态有所修复可能会有一定的反弹。但反弹力度有限，美元的强势走势使得目前黄金价格很难走出大的反弹行情。日线上，上一个交易日行情强势下行且收大阴线，显示短期空头较为强势。指标上看，20日均线延续下行，空头趋势有望延续。

From gold4小时图来看，目前形态上暂时止跌，下方支撑则关注1697Defeat1697则将下周将继续朝着1680附近挺进。由于macd一直处于底背弛状态，破前期后也容易马上回升反弹，这也是可以抓低多的原因之一，保持低位震荡弱势不变；黄金小时线级别：隔夜走低，上周五早盘反弹受压382Dividing resistance1716下行一波，欧盘支撑1700一线关口偏弱整理，虽未失守隔夜低点1697，不过价格也未破早盘高点，那么结合前面的弱势结构，目前还处于一定弱势，容易先探底再拉升，继续底部整理；综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期关注1720-1725Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1697-1692Frontline support.

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