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goldMessage interpretation:
The United States announced on Friday7月密西根大学消费者信心指数录得51.1Higher than market expectations49.9, previous value is50.
评论称，消费者信心相对稳定，仍接近历史低点。目前对个人财务状况的评估继续恶化，达到2011年以来的最低水平。耐用品购买情况有所好转，一方面是因为消费者认为供应紧张有所缓解，另一方面是因为消费者认为应该现在购买以避免未来价格上涨，因为价格上涨将加剧未来的通胀。对于价格对个人财务状况的有害影响，消费者的看法仍然一致。将通胀归咎于生活水平下降原因的消费者比例继续上升至49%，达到了大萧条期间的历史最高水平。这些负面看法在近期油价回落的情况下依然存在。通胀预期保持稳定或有所改善。预计未来一年的通胀率中值为5.2%，与过去五个月相比变化不大。长期预期中值降至2.8%，略低于此前11Months2.9-3.1%的区间。通胀的不确定性继续增加，26%的消费者预计未来5reach10年物价将保持不变或下降，高于一年前的11%。
美联储官员布拉德表示，之前如果通胀率为2%，收益率曲线倒挂可能意味着经济衰退。认为这个时候的收益率曲线情况有所不同。现在加息75or100个基点可能不会有太大的区别。如果美联储“把牌打好”，通胀可以在未来18个月内相对较快地降至2%。认为最近的通胀报告意味着美联储现在应该在年底前把政策利率目标定在3.75%。
美联储官员戴丽表示，认为经济衰退不会是可能出现的结果之一。开始看到通胀正在下降的迹象。我们说的不是将利率提高到极高的水平，更可能的是在3%左右。劳动力市场依然强劲。消费者继续支出。美国经济强劲。
华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos报道，美联储官员暗示，他们可能在本月晚些时候召开的议息会议中连续第二次加息75个基点，以作为对抗高通胀积极措施的一部分。此前美联储官员为更大幅度的加息打开大门，但在周六(7month16day)开始的静默期前，部分官员在最新采访和公开评论中同时对这一想法泼了冷水。该记者在6月美联储公布利率决议的前一天透露了将加息75个基点一事。
Technical analysis of gold:
黄金从盘面走势来看在周线上连续下跌五周，目前在周线上持续处于偏弱走势中。但是需要注意的是周线目前的乖离率稍微有一些偏大，价格距离前期的联排底部1680一带差的也不算太远，这可能会限制黄金短期在周线走势上的跌势。在日线走势上目前持续维持在低位震荡下行走势上中，K线继续承压短周期均线运行在日线上的下跌可能暂时还没有走完。短线走势在连续横盘震荡之后技术形态有所修复可能会有一定的反弹。但反弹力度有限，美元的强势走势使得目前黄金价格很难走出大的反弹行情。日线上，上一个交易日行情强势下行且收大阴线，显示短期空头较为强势。指标上看，20日均线延续下行，空头趋势有望延续。
From gold4小时图来看，目前形态上暂时止跌，下方支撑则关注1697Defeat1697则将下周将继续朝着1680附近挺进。由于macd一直处于底背弛状态，破前期后也容易马上回升反弹，这也是可以抓低多的原因之一，保持低位震荡弱势不变；黄金小时线级别：隔夜走低，上周五早盘反弹受压382Dividing resistance1716下行一波，欧盘支撑1700一线关口偏弱整理，虽未失守隔夜低点1697，不过价格也未破早盘高点，那么结合前面的弱势结构，目前还处于一定弱势，容易先探底再拉升，继续底部整理；综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期关注1720-1725Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1697-1692Frontline support.
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