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goldMessage interpretation:
周三国际黄金价格大幅震荡,金价自1707低点一度反弹近40美金,因美国6monthCPIAnnual rate recorded9.1%, creating40年来最大同比涨幅,CPIMonthly rate recorded1.3%, Chuangjin17年来最大月度增幅。通胀的走高,使得市场预期美联在两周后的议息会议上加息100基点的概率限制增大,这也是数据公布后金价走出一波急速下跌的原因。美联储博斯蒂克暗示7月可能加息100个基点。但随着美联储货币政策的愈发激进,美国经济衰退风险显著升高,这支撑金价低位转涨。
周四早间,美联储梅斯特表示,CPI报告很糟糕,通货膨胀太高了,没有任何令人信服的证据表明通货膨胀已经见顶。预计美联储将远远超过中性利率,通胀居高不下和经济衰退的风险已经上升。另据美联储经济状况褐皮书显示,五个地区的受访者表示,他们担心经济衰退的风险增加。
另一方面,来自地缘政治的风险不断,昨日朝鲜公开承认顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克独立,乌克兰宣布与其断交,泽连斯基称将作出严厉反应;美国总统拜登宣称,美国不排除将使用武力作为针对伊朗的最后手段;仍然可与伊朗达成削减其核计划的协议。动荡不安的地缘政治的因素,支撑金价维稳于1700dollar/盎司上方。
今日市场消息面相对较少,重点关注美国至7month9Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week and6monthPPI数据,此外美联储理事沃勒就美国经济前景发表讲话也是我们关注的重点,尤其是谈及美国经济衰退问题或能支撑金价。投资者需密切关注具体数据对黄金价格产生的影响,把握盘中交易机会
Focus on spot gold market today:
United States6monthPPIAnnual rate;
As of7month9日当周初请失业金人数;
美联储理事沃勒就美国经济前景发表讲话。
指南金师特别提醒:经过昨晚的CPI数据显示目前依然处于高通胀的环境下,今晚的PPI数据可能会进一步印证这一点,所以晚间的经济数据情况依然是关键所在。当然美联储官员发表的讲话也需结合,因为可能会透漏出一些下周的加息线索。
Technical analysis of gold:
黄金价格近期的弱势走势已经很明显了,近期的思路也一直是在看空,不管是美元屡创新高的势头还是美联储强烈的加息意愿,都在有力的打击着黄金的价格,而支撑黄金价格上涨的因素目前来看还是太少。日线级别,布林带持续开口向下,价格沿着下轨震荡下行,并且不断走出新的低点,昨晚基本按照预期去试探1700Near the checkpoint, although supported by some buying, prices continued to decline after a slight rebound.4When he was young, Brin took Ping away, and Brin brought him near the track, which is1745Horizontal resistance is formed on the first line, and the price has rebounded multiple times but failed to break through. The short-term trend is still volatile and short, and once the price falls below1700On the front line, the next goal is1680。综合来看,黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主,回踩做多为辅,上方短期关注1735-1740One line of resistance, pay attention below1700-1695Frontline support.
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