Guide Metallographer:7.7今日黄金走势分析，黄金仍处于极弱还有一跌

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　基本面上，近日在受到美元指数强势走强的影响下，黄金连跌至9个多月来的低点，其隔夜美联储6月会议纪要确立了一项更“限制性”的货币政策，增强了美元的看涨需求，同时，欧元受到欧洲能源危机的担忧拖累，欧元兑美元持续走低，创二十年年新低，也对美元有利好推动，并也间接利空金价走势。


　　整体而言，现在美国激进加息的步伐和避险情绪助推美元走高；黄金短期或在7月内将维持承压局面。


　　观点上，指南金师认为；技术虽有进一步下跌动力，但个人预计下方空间有限，虽美元指数目前走势强势，但隔夜美联储会议纪要显示7Monthly interest rate increase50Basis points and75个基点都有可能，减弱了更加激进的加息预期，另外，市场也对于75个基点加息有所消化，所以本月加息对金价压力有限，如加息50个基点将利好金价走强，因而现在来看，则是对金价的提前利空反应。


　　再者，美联储纪要的这一7月加息言论事实也表明，美联储承认了加息对经济的影响；暗示已经处于衰退边缘的经济恐将进一步放缓。虽短期将会偏向也具有避险能力的美元，但一旦加息力度减缓，金价将重回中长期看涨趋势。


　　眼下市场正关注美联储会议纪要和美国非农就业报告。不管非农如何，一个时间段的数据是难以改变政策趋势的，虽然市场预期就业数据疲弱，可能令金价产生反弹回补，但需要持续走强，则需要下周美国CPI数据走软只有这样，美联储才会停止新一轮大规模收紧政策。数据而言，本次非农料影响有限，继续以公布前的金价点位为主进行来回操作即可。


Today's Focus:


　　13:45Switzerland6Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment


　　14:00Germany5Monthly industrial output rate after quarterly adjustment


　　14:00britain6monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index after quarterly adjustment


　　16:00China6monthforeign exchangereserve


　　16:30英国央行公布对政策制定者的调查报告


　　19:30U.S.A6Monthly Challenger Enterprise layoffs


　　19:30Announced by the European Central Bank6Monthly Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


　　20:30From the United States to7month2Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A5Monthly trade account


The next day01:00美联储理事沃勒接受媒体采访


The next day01:00Fed Brad delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


　　从三月加息黄金自2070都是震荡下跌每次下跌震荡一个时代，下跌幅度近200dollar2070reach1900时代，1900reach1786时代，现在6month7月加息超预期，甚至不排除加息100基点，显然后期加息缩表继续，美联储再次提示通胀误判，其实就是告诉你加息缩表高于预期而且坚定紧缩刚刚开始那么黄金下跌主旋律，中长期黄金利空不断，日线5浪下跌形态明显走势，即使下跌复制1wave175美金，那么黄金至少要到1700区域，如果7月在强势也许1600时代。日线均线压制下跌，每次过山车冲高回落显然多头持续动能没有，那么显然再次下跌是大概率。日线大阴破位，总体依然空头控制盘面，你必须有一个大格局，要知道疫情时候黄金1450涨上来的，现在宽松变成紧缩货币政策，哪里来到哪里去，大趋势做空，那么你要做的就是压力区域分批布局做空。


Gold opened yesterday at1765.47dollar/盎司，亚欧盘金价窄幅震荡，最高点触及1772.8水平徘徊，美盘震荡下破，最低触及1731徘徊。日线级别大阴线，昨日发文就已经分析了，金价处于空头下跌第五波走势中，预期目标在1725-1720水平，从今日低开低走的格局上看，金价空头还没有走完，还是以反弹做空思路对待。综上所述指南金师总结：今日黄金操作上建议以反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注1752-1757Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1730-1725Frontline support.


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