Guide Metallographer:7.5今日黄金走势分析，金价窄幅震荡待寻底

　　goldInterpretation of message surface;


　　黄金在相对平静的假日交易中区间震荡，5日亚市早盘，金价报在1810美元下方徘徊。美联储FOMC会议纪要与非农就业人数，将被视为当前市场潜在的催化剂，为将通过加息75个基点的观点，提供美国经济和意识形态的详细视图。债券市场因美国独立日假期休市，但美元出现双向走势，本周初既支撑又下跌。


　　尽管呈现下跌行情，但金价仍高于2月初以来的最低水平，这是在支撑美元的避险环境下，于上周五创下的。在不断扩大的贸易逆差将卢比推至历史低点后，印度出人意料地提高进口税，这也给黄金带来压力。


　　“这可能会削弱需求，因为黄金支持的ETF资金流出增加，”澳新银行分析师认为。“通胀上升增加央行大举加息的可能性，削弱贵金属吸引力。”


　　尽管黄金具有避险的吸引力，但黄金是一种无息资产类别，在避险时会限制黄金的上涨。道明证券的分析师认为，“过去一个月，黄金价格与美联储加息的市场定价完全脱节，反而加强与美元的关系，这表明黄金的特殊流动幅度较小。”


　　“全球市场的流动性正在流失，黄金流动也未能幸免。毕竟，黄金自营交易员可能自满的大量投机性多头似乎与美联储的说法或对世界的滞胀观点无关，考虑到这一多头早在2020年就已累积，”分析师解释说，“反过来，虽然黄金仍偏向下行，但参与者将需要催化剂来摆脱自满的贵金属多头。”


　　与此同时，美元在本周初走弱，直到纽约时段开始，从周五创下的两周高点回落。有报道称，白宫将在本周晚些时候宣布放宽对中国的部分关税，以试图抑制高涨的通胀，这帮助周一市场重新注入了一些乐观情绪。


　　此外，上周五数据显示，欧元区的通胀正在创下新高。这使得欧洲央行本月晚些时候十年来首次加息的理由更加坚定。然而与美联储相比，预计将采取温和的行动，并且两家央行之间的分歧可能被认为在中期内对美元更有利。


　　道明证券分析师表示，就本周日历而言，预计非农就业人数将显示6月就业人数可能继续强劲增长，但在3to5月连续3年增加约40万个就业岗位后，增长速度将更为温和。


　　同时，美联储6月会议纪要也将受到关注。“持续高企的CPI通胀和脱离通胀预期的新迹象，迫使美联储加快加息步伐。”道明证券的分析师表示，会议纪要可能会为美联储更加鹰派的反应职能提供进一步的色彩。


Technical analysis of gold:


From the perspective of the gold daily structure, the gold first fluctuated and then rebounded within the day, but above1814The first line was blocked, and then the market fluctuated and retreated, while the low point in the European session retreated to1804On the first line, the overall trend is also in line with the expected volatility and digestion trend for the day. At present, the short-term market trend may not be easy to control, and the late US market closure will also make the market trading sentiment cautious, so the overall volatility will not be significant. Stay tuned above the evening gold5Daily line1812-14Short term pressure competition, although there were punctures within the day1812As5The pressure of daily and small cycle trend lines may still become a key point of contention in the evening. According to the daily structure, if we close today5Not too much on the daily line, but above1820Frontline action10The daily pressure and trend line pressure will still have a further suppressive effect, so short-term gold can be biased towards bearish, but do not expect too much space. Technically, the overall rebound is still weak, and the current rebound is only a technical oversold rebound, making it difficult to achieve a reversal.


At present, while both the bullish and bearish directions of the gold market may occur, it is recommended to focus on observing the current market situation and follow the trend direction before participating. The short-term trend structure should be clarified first, and the trend should still be bearish, meaning that bears have the main advantage. When the rebound is blocked and suppressed, the main rhythm direction is still bearish participation, rather than disrupting the rhythm direction due to short-term low rebound. Friday, althoughVType reversal, but never breaking the bearish trend line.4The mid hour orbit will stillKThe physical part of the line is pressed to death, and has not broken through the middle track multiple times, indicating the strong pressure. Breaking through is not a result of Asahi's efforts, and it will inevitably undergo the baptism of time. It is clearly not enough now. Now gold is at a critical watershed position, while4小时中轨压制金价，双重因素引导我一们继续看空黄金。在黄金没有转势的情况下，不要枉然抄底。综上所述指南金师总结：今日黄金操作上建议反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注1820-1825Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1797-1792Frontline support.


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