Guide Metallographer:7.5今日黄金走势分析，金价转跌为升概率较大！

　　goldMarket trend analysis;


Monday(7month4day)，国际金价在震荡中小幅走高，因为美国国债收益率疲软使金价站稳1800美元大关上方，且美元多头在假日中稍事休息，金价短线反弹。但金价似乎不太可能在更长时间内走强，管理基金和大型投机者正在增加对黄金的空头押注。美联储政策制定者上周巩固了对进一步收紧货币政策的预期，暗示7月份将再次加息75个基点。黄金价格上周五(7month1day)触及五个月低点1784.39美元，但随后反弹，收盘时几乎持稳。10年期美债收益率跌至一个月来的最低水平，提振了非孳息资产黄金。上周，美联储政策制定者巩固了对进一步收紧货币政策的预期，暗示7月份将再次加息75个基点。与此同时，主要经济体金融状况收紧引发了对全球经济衰退的担忧，导致大宗商品价格普遍下跌。CRB指数反映了这种经济担忧——较2022年的高点下跌了10%以上。有分析师表示，近期来看金价仍然低迷，“显然，强劲的美元指数抑制了金市看涨情绪，预计黄金价格将在一段时间内继续承压。


　　黄金技术面分析；黄金上周五下探回升，日线收盘十字阳K线，最低一度跌至1784.34dollar|盎司，下探后贴近此前低点，技术结构上的假性双底的支撑反弹，将上周五日内的下跌失地尽数收复，且还刷新亚盘的高点，使得日线由阴转阳，下影线较长的阳十字K线，日线显示短期在1786-1784低点处依旧形成较强支撑，宽幅震荡行情要直接破位还有一点难度，经过上周五的放量之后伴随强力反弹，短线重新进入拉锯震荡，K线在阴跌放量后再收回，使得短期破位力度减弱，技术面进入震荡，4小时伴随一波浪形阴跌放量之后再配合强阳线反抽，反弹幅度较大且尾盘收在高位，打破了上周周初的弱势格局。周尾形成过山车将日内短线拉回震荡，目前日线下影线较长，周初看回补影线之后能否下破，下破低点才能延续下行走势，反之则回归拉锯震荡，区间需要重新确认。局部暂时当作震荡，综合来看，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议上方短期重点关注1820-1825Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1800-1795Frontline support.


　　crude oilMarket trend analysis:


Analysis of crude oil news: Monday（7month4During the Asian session, US Oil fell slightly and is currently trading at108dollar/桶附近；美国经济衰退担忧加剧，且猴痘疫情在欧美传播，需求担忧情绪再起；但利比亚国家港口的不可抗力或限制油价跌幅。分析师表示，“随着利比亚的政治危机导致石油出口大幅下降，油价上周以上涨报收。我们之前看过这一幕，石油市场供应紧张和关键港口的不可抗力应该会为油价提供潜在支撑。”分析师写道，“价格上限最明显和可能的风险是，俄罗斯可能选择不参与，而是通过减少出口进行报复，莫斯科可能会借减产来报复，给西方国家带来痛苦。全球石油市场的紧张局面对俄罗斯有利。”利比亚的出口中断加剧了全球供应担忧，且油价反弹小幅收涨。总体来看，油价依然受到供应紧张的支撑，但受到疫情担忧和美国经济衰退担忧的加剧，油价短线或回落。周二OPEC秘书长巴尔金都将发表讲话，需要关注。


　　原油技术面分析：美油周一日内先震荡，测压109The first line is back under pressure and retreats to107.3一线，但欧盘后期行情又出现拉升回弹，目前高点已经翻过日线级别均线带，至110一线附近。按照日线以及小时图结构，短线美油走势比较难把控，既然目前109压力已经失效，那么可能会有进一步的延续上涨，上方110、111都可能成为下一个压力点位，但具体会落在何处不好判断，短线波动空间不大，但这种特殊情况下，又容易出现异动风险。技术点位关注110、111Pressure, following below10Daily line108附近支撑争夺，目前依小时图结构来看，跌回其下的可能性依然有，但已经大大减小。综合来看，原油今日操作思路上指南金师建议以回踩做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期关注111.8-112.3Frontline resistance, short-term focus below108.5-108.0Frontline support.


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