Guide Metallographer:6.28黄金三角震荡等破位，原油继续保持低多！

　　goldTrend analysis:


　　受周日消息面影响，昨日黄金先高开低走，随后行情又震荡回弹，测压至预期压力位1841一线，而后行情又展开回落调整，晚间行情跌幅加大，低点跌至1820附近，日线最终收得一实体饱和阴线。


　　从昨日黄金的走势节奏来看，市场变脸还是很快的，虽然上方测压至20日线再度承压符合预期判断，但下方回落跌至1820一线还是超出短线预期的，如此情况说明周日消息面的利好已经被市场消化，且这样的运行节奏也与美指走势没有太多的关联，无形中也加大了短期内黄金的走势不确定性风险。日线结构上，目前上方5、10、20Daily line1827、1833、1840均构成短线压制，单按技术形态来看，在昨日阴线贯穿跌破5、10日线的情况下，日内行情可能有回弹确认5、10日线压力的过程，一旦压力确认有效，则短线行情或再有延伸下跌，下方或可再期待此前预期的日线级别区间下沿1810-05一带。不过需要注意的是，目前黄金与美指节奏并不同步，如果美指借助其自身20日线支撑有所回弹，那么黄金出现回落自然可期，但如果美指跌破20日线，黄金要再度回落，显然空头信心会受到打压。


　　结合小时图结构来看，昨夜行情连续下破，跌破跳空缺口1825The low point dropped to1820后虽有止跌，但回弹动能很弱，预示隔夜下跌还是有效的，行情也重回此前的偏弱状态。日内上方可关注1828-30一带压力回弹确认，如果今日行情连此位也不能站上，则整体偏弱格局会加强，后期行情再度调整的概率也将增加。而日内下方则先关注1820-17一带支撑测试，如果在此上方持续震荡时间延长，但又翻不过上方1828-30短压，那么后期跌破1820-17的概率也会增加，届时下方可期1810-05One belt retreat.


　　操作上，日内主思路持择高短空为宜，但是鉴于当前黄金走势与美指不是很协调的状态，操作上务必保持谨慎，防范美指可能出现异动给黄金带来无法确定的影响。


　　①日内行情回弹1828-30区域内激进可轻仓搏一次短空，带止损1833Above, look down at the target1825-23First change to break even and stop loss, then withdraw1820-17区域再做减仓，剩余持单亦可保留看1810-05一带回撤再做减离预期。若昨日有1840附近空单遗留的，也可继续持有，按上述目标位逐步减离。


　　②日内下方首次回撤1820、1817激进可尝试一次短多，严格控制轻仓状态，带止损1815, look at the goal1823-25附近即可减仓改保本止损，回弹1828-30减离出局。


　　③如果日内行情意外站稳至1830-33上方，盘中根据实际情况再做实时策略调整。


　　crude oilTrend analysis:


Analysis of crude oil news: Monday（6month27During the Asian period, the decline of American Oil exceeded1%Currently traded on105.95dollar/Near the barrel, because it was reported at the weekend that negotiations between parties concerned in the Comprehensive Agreement on nuclear program of Iran would resume in a few days, Iranian crude oil was expected to return to the market, and the European strike affected the demand of the aviation industry for crude oil. Analysts say, "A recession is not our baseline forecast, and growth is indeed significantly below the trend. This will restore balance to the imbalanced labor market and ultimately help inflation fall," he said., Our prediction is to2022At the end of the year, the terminal interest rate is3.25%To3.5%We anticipate that2023We won't raise interest rates again this year, mainly because the economy is slowing down and inflation is decreasing. I think at this level, the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged The data released after his aforementioned speech shows that,6The long-term inflation expectations of American consumers at the University of Michigan decreased in June, which led to a rise in the stock market. The report shows that long-term inflation expectations are reported from the initial values14The decline in annual highs may reduce the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more steeply. Overall, this week's oil prices may be affected by the resumption of the Iran nuclear talks, maintaining a bearish tone; However, it is also important to note that the decline may be limited due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and weakened expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. It is also important to pay attention to the impact of the Group of Seven's consideration of limiting Russian oil prices.


　　原油技术面分析：原油震荡下跌后反弹，上周油价在略高于100整数关口的位置录得了类似“启明星”的K线组合，KDJ低位有所金叉趋势，油价短线见底的可能性有所增加，目前正试探6month17Daily low point108.35附近阻力，如果顶破该阻力，则增加短线看涨信号；进一步阻力在55Daily moving average109.65Nearby,5The daily moving average resistance is currently at110.53Nearby,6month16日高点低点阻力在112.31附近；强阻力在21Daily moving average115.00整数关口附近。由于MACD死叉信号仍在，仍需提防反弹受阻后重回跌势的可能性，下方初步支撑在100Daily moving average105.82Nearby, then5month12Daily low point102.66附近支撑，强支撑在100整数关口附近，若意外跌破该支撑，则增加中线看空信号。5month11Daily low point support at102.66附近。综上所述总结：原油今日操作思路上指南金师建议以回踩低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期关注111.0-111.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below107.5-107.0Frontline support.


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