Guide Metallographer:6.28今日黄金走势分析，金价拉锯战本质还没变

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　密切关注衰退前景


　　经济学家正在密切关注经济，许多人正在提升近期出现衰退的可能性。花旗集团在评估未来18个月的全球经济前景时认为，全球经济衰退的可能性为50%，而高盛则认为美国明年经济衰退的可能性为30%。


　　国际货币基金组织(IMF)格奥尔基耶娃表示，美联储所暗示的政策利率路??径，即迅速将联邦基金利率提高至3.5%-4%，是降低通胀的正确政策，但可能会给消费者带来“一些痛苦”，避免美国经济衰退的“路径正在缩短”，并强调今明两年尤其是明年存在“重大下行风险”。


　　剑桥大学经济学家兼皇后学院院长Mohamed El-Erian虽然并不预见美国经济会衰退，但“滞涨”会真是存在。他表示，由于美联储多次失误，美国经济“软着陆”的可能性“显着下降”，并补充说美联储对通胀的反应不够快。


United States5月消费者价格同比飙升8.6%, Chuangjin40年新高。本月早些时候，El-Erian告诉哥伦比亚广播公司，他担心消费者价格同比涨幅可能会进一步升至9%。他说：“美联储很可能会突然暂停加息并将我们推入衰退，”


　　美联储严重低估了近几个季度的通胀上升，因此长期采取扩张性货币政策立场。美联储现在的目标是实现过去二十年来最快的加息周期，提高借贷成本并抑制消费，以控制通胀。


　　在这样做的过程中，美联储希望恢复其受损的信誉，即使它以牺牲经济增长或充分就业为代价。但但这反过来促使企业去库存、降工时、裁员和关闭门店，大大增加了政策失误的风险，这可能引发经济衰退，全球供应链瓶颈快速缓解几乎无望，美联储几乎没有回旋余地。


　　总体而言，黄金仍陷于自5月初以来形成的1780-1880美元区间。除非美元大幅单向变动，否则金市很难改变当前动态。短期内央行大幅加息对非孳息资产黄金本身是不利，但随着经济衰退前景提升，黄金将呈现避险特征。因此，价格短期内可能继续横盘波动，取决于两个影响因素中哪一个碰巧占了上风。


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold rebounded last week and resumed its recovery after pressure testing, confirming the current weak state of the market. Today, we will pay attention to it first1820Competition, but as time passes, the probability of this position falling will also increase. Once it falls, you can pay more attention below1812-10Competition, even under the influence of extreme emotions, the market may retreat to1805-00The possibility of finding support in the area. Stay tuned above in the evening1830-33Short term pressure band, if the market wants to reverse today, stand up1830The above is a technical requirement, but even if one stands firm1830Above, there may not be strong rebound momentum in the short term, as the current fundamentals are relatively light, and the impact on the US dollar trend in the short term should be particularly concerned.


Although gold is today1825The position has gained support and rebounded, but the rebound strength is insufficient, which is different from the previous strong rebound. It also indicates that the bull strength is starting to decline, and the decline is about to start. Once the level breaks, the market will directly fall to1815even to the extent that1800Location. After adjusting for the gold shock, we have chosen our direction again. Although the current market volatility is not significant, it is already the calm before the storm. The storm is about to strike, so we will continue to hold short and wait for the market to break through and decline! In summary, the guide for gold today's operation is summarized by the gold expert. The gold expert suggests that the main focus should be on rebounding from high altitudes, with more rebounding from low altitudes as a supplement, and short-term attention should be paid to the top1840-1845Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1820-1815Frontline support.

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