Guide Metallographer:6.21今日黄金走势分析，黄金低位震荡等待方向

　　goldMessage interpretation:

　　美国总统拜登表示，美国经济衰退不是不可避免的。对于目前高涨的汽油价格，他的团队本周将会见石油公司的首席执行官们，他们将被要求证明他们获得的利润是合理的。

　　美联储官员布拉德表示，如果美联储不采取可信的行动，美国的通胀预期可能会失控，可能导致高通胀和实体经济表现波动的新局面。疫情前，美国经济以2.6%的速度扩张，PCE衡量的总体通胀率为1.5%The unemployment rate is3.6%，而政策利率为1.55%，10年期美国国债为1.86%，30年期固定利率抵押贷款利率为3.96%。他表示：“这可能为美国一旦通胀得到控制，各种利率组合可能稳定在什么水平提供一个实用的基准。市场利率已高于疫情前基准，而政策利率尚未达到。美联储仍需坚持到底，才能验证此前的前瞻性指引，但其对经济和通胀的影响已经开始显现。”如果美联储能够重复1994年的紧缩周期，则可能在今年迅速加息，并打造“亮丽”的经济前景。“收紧政策在那一年造成了一些混乱，”然而，我一直认为，这为美国经济在20century90年代后半期取得出色表现奠定了基础。我希望我们这次也能有这样的收获。

　　欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，欧洲央行打算在7月份的货币政策会议上将关键利率提高25个基点，并预计欧洲央行将在9月份再次提高关键利率。她还表示，欧洲央行必须保持灵活性，以确保政策的正确传导。

　　欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩表示，如果经济放缓超过预期，加息步伐将放缓。欧洲央行9月加息幅度加大并不代表对通胀的红色预警评估。在9月之后，没有关于收紧货币政策的适当速度的预判。

According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike25and50The probability of a basis point is0%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is99.5%Interest rate hike100The probability of a basis point is0.5%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25、50、75and100The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is56.7%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is43.1%Accumulated interest rate increase175The probability of a basis point is0.2%。

Today's Focus:

　　09:30 澳洲联储公布货币政策会议纪要

　　14:00 Switzerland5Monthly trade account

　　16:00 eurozone4Monthly adjusted current account

　　18:00 britain6monthCBIIndustrial order difference

　　20:30 Canada4Monthly retail sales rate

　　22:00 U.S.A5Annualized total monthly housing sales

　　24:00 Federal Reserve Meister delivers a speech

Analysis of Gold Technology:

　　黄金昨日小阴线震荡收盘，整体空间依旧走得不大，小阴回落之后陷入钝化整理，多空短期量能延续不足，局部进入收敛，从日线结构来看，暂时还处于下行趋势线之下运行，但空间收缩得较小，使得短线强弱延续不定，等待突破。日线技术结构关注布林道上下轨之间的震荡。4The local shrinkage space in the hourly chart is slightly smaller, and the resistance on the upper rail is still1850nearby.The lower rail support is1825nearby.宽幅区间中的再收缩。由于短期单边动能不足，日内短线卡点超短线应对，点位为王，方向其次。白盘的位置偏中性。把时间点放到美盘，在震荡行情中，最好是等待释放一定空间之后，确定日内大概区间，再择机操作更显稳妥，以免反复拉锯，进在中间位置持仓也是难受。综合分析：黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以区间震荡为主，上方短期关注1850-1855Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1830-1825Frontline support.

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