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Yu Yue on Jin:3.26黄金原油下周走势分析及操作建议附解套策略

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  goldNext week's market analysis:



Analysis of Gold News: Friday(3month25日)欧市早盘,美元指数继续承压,目前位于98.60附近。现货黄金短线出现一波上涨,金价重回1960dollar/盎司关口上方。由于俄乌冲突升级,增加了对黄金作为避险资产和通胀对冲工具的需求,金价本周震荡上涨,在周四北约峰会加大对俄罗斯制裁后,金价获得进一步上涨动能。尽管美联储官员一直在发表鹰派讲话,令部分多头有所顾忌,但目前金价已经初步顶破1950关口阻力,技术面看涨信号有所增加。后市有望打开新一轮上涨通道。尽管美联储的鹰派基调和美债收益率走高正在给无息黄金带来压力,但黄金也受益于避险保值需求。对物价急升的担忧以及围绕乌克兰战争的不确定性,提振了黄金作为避险资产和通胀对冲工具的吸引力。



  黄金技术面分析:黄金从日线级别来看,受市场对俄乌局势恶化的担忧,昨日黄金持续震荡回弹,冲破1950压力后,短线多头信心增加,高点拉升至1966一线,日线收得一阳线,结束了本周以来持续的阴阳交错的混乱局面。日线结构上来看,原本行情处于20Daily line1950下方震荡,且阴阳交错出现,多空频繁的转换,已经透露出当前市场情绪极度的不稳定,且可能因基本面消息而走出震荡区间,隔夜俄乌相关消息面刺激市场避险买盘情绪,促发行情向上突破,这也在情理之中,但这样的情况对于操作上却不是很友好的。昨日行情收阳线站稳10日线上,贯穿突破20日线,日内预期大概率会有一波延续回升,日线级别或可能出现三连阳状态,但是也莫要抱有太大期待,冲高测压后回落也是很有可能,因为目前的基本面所采集到的消息,还不至于让黄金持续的回升或者再次拉升。



  今日黄金来看,昨日黄金强势上涨,最高涨至1966,这里有阻力天花板,震荡需要消化。现在黄金已经站稳日线中轨,等黄金一个回撤跑步进场就是了。黄金站稳日线中轨,突破站稳1950一线的压力,这就是要继续做多的。4小时图上黄金节节走高,且没有在高位出现针状顶部信号,那就顺着这个方向将多头进行到底即可。当前1950位置是底部盘整支撑位置,也是当前多空分水岭位置,此位置上黄金回落就是直接多,上方的压力是1974位置,今日震荡修正后必将再次拉升新高!小时图上,隔夜黄金的拉升动作就显得有些异常了,原本在1950一线已经表现技术承压,而在消息面刺激下,市场避险情绪升温,推动黄金拉升突破1950,这也使得多头信心得到增强,导致短时看涨情绪增加,行情高点测压至1966一线。按照目前小时图趋势,短线上涨已经运行两波段,日内行情是会有可能再出现一波回升的,上方可着重关注1970-75区域压力,此位是目前的短趋势线压力,同时在日线级别,此区域也出现过多次的高低点,即便短线走高,预期在此出现承压争夺的可能性也是非常大的。日内下方则关注1950的回撤情况,如果能守住,方才能使得短线结构重心得到上抬,后期行情也才有望进一步上涨。综上所述,黄金下周操作思路上余越论金建议回调做多为主,反弹做空为辅,上方重点关注1965-1970Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1937-1932Frontline support.



  crude oilNext week's market analysis:



Analysis of crude oil news: Friday3month25日亚洲时段,美油徘徊于111.6dollar/桶附近;油价周四下跌,因拜登联合盟国加大对莫斯科的压力,但各国存分歧;且CPCCaspian stone*道码头的原油出口可能部分恢复,美国及其盟国正在讨论可能进一步协调从储备中释放更多石油,令油价承压走低,在美国的压力下,加上拜登亲临布鲁塞尔,欧盟领导人很可能最快周四晚上批准制裁更多的俄罗斯富豪并且堵住一些制裁漏洞。外交官们称,虽然有几个国家在推动,但领导人们预计仍将避免制裁俄罗斯的石油和天然气。知情外交官表示,德国、匈牙利和意大利等国家由于依赖俄罗斯的资源而不愿实施能源制裁。德国认为,在制裁俄罗斯能源之前应该先专注执行当前的惩罚措施。欧盟还担心石油禁令不会对俄罗斯总统普京伤筋动骨,因为制裁措施会抬高油价,其他国家也会取而代之购买俄石油,总体来看,虽然美国加大了对俄的制裁力度,但就能源的制裁欧洲各国还存分歧,CPCCaspian stone*道部分恢复,油价短线或偏空;但若俄就美国的新制裁采取回应措施,地缘紧张风险上升,油价或还存上涨可能。



  原油技术面分析:原油昨日探高小阴线回落收低,日线虽有回落,但实体K线不算太大,更倾向于震荡拉锯,最高触及116.60承压,最低回测至111.10.且收盘在低位。日线小阴线。从日线结构来看,三连阳之后伴随一阴一阳的循环拉锯震荡,由于空间稍有收敛,且收盘在相对高位,使得日内短线依旧强弱不明,目前在进行B浪反弹确认,昨日的收盘不太好确定已经形成B浪高点。还要留意今天的收盘强弱。单从空间来看,B浪的反弹空间略大,已至0.618上方有受阻之迹象,观察接下来能否收低回落。4小时昨日惯性探高后收低在中轨之下,短线打破了此前的依托中轨强势上涨结构,短线开始转为拉锯震荡,能否转换回落,需要空间配合,暂时进入拉锯震荡,多空延续不足,要重新拐头向下,还需要下行空间的配合,由于这波反抽空间略大,使得短线要进行日线c浪下行,需要跌至低点附近或下破低点确认,目前还有较远的距离。短线需要留意形态转换,目前有回落之势。看周尾收官空间上如何释放。综合来看,原油下周短线操作思路余越论金建议以反弹高空为主,回调做多为辅,上方短期重点关注112.7-113.2Frontline resistance, short-term focus below108.5-108.0Frontline support.



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    This article discusses the deduction of gold by Yu Yue  724952173,vx yylj10086As a contributor, I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Technical Director Yu Yue discusses online solutions for gold, with loss recovery and real-time guidance on WeChat one-on-one. Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.

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