Zhou Hongjin:8.5周一现货黄金开盘行情走势，美原油周一开盘操作建议

　　我们总羡慕别人的幸福，却常常忽略自己的美好。其实，幸福很简单，它就藏在看似琐碎的行情中。幸福的人，并非拿到了世界上最好的东西，而是珍惜了市场中的点点滴滴，用感恩的心态看待生活，用敬畏的心来看待市场。当所有的人都站在一边并不一定是好事，譬如他们都站在船的一边。
　　
Message interpretation:
　　
　　美联储降息，旨在刺激经济。自从去年特朗普发动贸易战，美国经济就成了市场的心头大患。直到收益率曲线倒挂、其他经济指标报警，“危机将至”的风声越来越大。此时下调利率，降低借贷成本，原本应该是颗定心丸。但美联储的这次降息却被形容为“鹰派降息”。除了幅度是预期中较低的那一档——25个基点，还有两名票委反对。重要的是，美联储主席鲍威尔说，这并非降息周期的开始，未来有可能再次降息，有可能不降，还有可能加息，这和大家普遍预期的今年降息三次显然不符。对此，华尔街显然不满意。消息宣布后，标普500指数、道琼斯指数、纳斯达克指数尽皆下挫。
　　
　　特朗普也“火上浇油”，他说：“市场想从鲍威尔和美联储那里听到的是，这是一个漫长而激进的降息周期的开始。”批评美联储的紧缩政策早就成了特朗普更推的日常。这次美联储不再紧缩，却也没能逃过总统先生的炮轰，“和往常一样，鲍威尔让我们失望了。”“我肯定不会从美联储得到多少帮助！”就算不看情绪化的市场，不看更加情绪化的特朗普，应该足够理智的专家这次也没给美联储叫好。他们说，美国经济尚属健康，降息实在大可不必，尤其是在周五的就业报告出炉以后。这份就业报告显示，美国的失业率保持在近50年低位，非农就业人口增幅也高于预期。

goldTrend analysis:
　　
　　刚刚过去的一周，国际金价一度跌至7month17日以来最低水准1400.43美元，因美元大涨。此前美联储如期开启近十年来首次降息，但打消了市场对长期宽松周期的预期。不过乏善可陈的美国7月非农数据令美元走软，全球贸易形势面临进一步恶化，金价终盘在时隔一周后重新收涨，并录得六周来最大单周涨幅1.59%。交易员认为美联储9月再次降息的可能性为100%。
　　
　　日线图MACD死叉信号仍在，KDJ金叉，后市走势变数仍存一些变数，短线建议关注1430.62-1452.89区域突破情况,1430.62by5日均线支撑，而1452.89是近六年高点阻力所在。若上破1452.89附近阻力，则金价有望进一步涨向2013year5month3Daily high point1488.16附近阻力。而若下破1430.62附近支撑，则金价仍可能维持高位震荡走弱，进一步支撑在10Daily moving average1425.60Nearby and20Daily moving average1420.03Nearby. Short line4hourK线形态和布林线轨道出现“喇叭张口”形态，后市走势变数较大；目前金价受到布林线上轨压制，关注3268735920The price of gold is1430.45重要支撑位处获得支撑，该位置既是整数关口，也是短线涨势的38.2%回撤位，也是美联储利率决议后鲍威尔讲话前的高点所在。短线留意1430.45-1448.4区域突破情况；综合来看综合来看，下周一操作思路上周鸿金个人建议高沽低渣即可；
　　
Focus on resistance above:1448.4；1453.09；
　　
Pay attention to support below:1438.15；1430.45；

　　

Suggestions for Gold Operations:
　　
　　1Callback1430Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1442-1444；
　　
　　2Rebound1448Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1440-1438；
　　
　　盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准，添加薇-Core:zh66646Get real-time strategies and free solutions.
　　
　crude oilTrend analysis:
　　
　　刚刚过去的一周，国际油价本周收跌，创6Since mid month, oil prices have hit a new low due to US President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on more Chinese imports8month1The daily record has hit its largest single day decline in years and is breaking new ground6Low since mid month. Prior to this, crude oilfuturesPreviously, due to Iran lowering its nuclear commitments, Saudi Arabia7The daily crude oil production continued to decline and US inventories steadily decreased, resulting in a fragile upward trend.
　　
　　技术面来看，继续关注54.72-57.64区域突破情况，前者是7month18日低点且接近布林线下轨支撑，后者是7month24日高点且接近布林线中轨阻力；KDJGolden fork operation,MACD死叉减弱，若能顶破布林线中轨57.74附近阻力，则增加短线看涨信号；进一步阻力在7month17Daily high point58.36Nearby,100Daily moving average resistance59.24附近。关注3268735920若意外下破布林线下轨54.76附近支撑，则增加短线看空信号；进一步支撑在6month19Daily low point53.50Nearby,6month17The daily high is supported by52.74附近，然后较强的支撑在6month5Daily low point50.60Near.5Daily moving average56.44附近也存在一些支撑。综合来看，下周一操作思路上周鸿金个人建议反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅；
　　
Focus on resistance above:56.05；56.38；56.96；
　　
Pay attention to support below:55.09；54.24；53.59；

　　

Recommendations for crude oil operations
　　
　　1Rebound56.0Stop loss without breaking short0.5US dollars, look at the target54.2-54.4；
　　
　　2Callback53.6Do not break long, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target55.0-55.2；
　　
　　盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准，添加薇-Core:zh66646Get real-time strategies and free solutions.
　　
　　1Special reminder: Investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time they should focus on watching and waiting patiently for the best opportunity to sell, and avoiding frequent trading is one of the recognized winning secrets. Do not attempt to seize all fluctuations, nor expect to grasp every segment of the market. Judging the market situation is only a part of trading. Investors also need to have a reverence for the market, remember trading discipline, and strictly control their positions to reduce greed, overcome fear, and try to maintain a calm mind when trading.
　　
　　2Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
　　
　　3Experience benefits: For investment friends who are interested in consulting and cooperating, it is convenient for mutual trust in future cooperation and can be experienced with screenshots of actual positions3Tian Shou Dan, you can choose whether to cooperate based on your earnings in the future! I believe this welfare is a good turning point opportunity for friends who have suffered long-term losses in the market and investors who have lost confidence. Whether you seize the opportunity depends on your choice.
　　
　　鸿金寄语-----
　　
There is a saying in the capital market: "Patience is an investment, and patience is the prerequisite for success." The courage and strategy of spot investment are necessary, and patience cannot be lacking! Spot trading must cultivate good endurance, which is often the key to investment success or failure. Many investors do not lack analytical skills or investment experience, but rather a high level of patience. Buying or selling too early can lead to pointless waste of time and loss of money.
　　
Investing in spot goods requires patience, seeking market opportunities requires waiting, and patience is needed; Holding a position is a process that requires investment of time, and therefore requires a high degree of patience, vision, and foresight. Do not be restless due to fluctuations in prices.
　　
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