Shan Chenjin:5.23美联储纪要重点前瞻！黄金日内走势分析

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Shan Chenjin:5.23美联储纪要重点前瞻！goldIntraday trend analysis


Summary:周三，全球金融市场将迎来本周首个重要消息——美联储5月会议纪要。上周美元指数强势爆发，稳健的美国经济数据和美债收益率攀升对美元走势构成提振。但本周迄今美元呈现上涨乏力迹象，而金价也暂时止住“跌跌不休”。不过即将出炉的美联储纪要将成为目前平静市场的催化剂，美元、黄金走势可能会出现剧烈波动。


--International News Analysis--

Thursday Beijing time02:00，美国联邦市场委员会(FOMC)To be announced5月政策会议纪要。投资者将从中寻找目前收紧政策周期的行动步伐。市场参与者预计美联储将在2018年加息三到四次。在美联储5At the monthly meeting,FOMC强调称通胀目标是对称的，并表达了对通胀高于目标的一些容忍度。


在上次美联储会后声明中强调“对称”一词后，美元曾出现短暂下跌，市场认为美联储可能会容忍通胀上升。鉴于上次的利率决议没有新闻发布会，本周的美联储会议纪要则显得更为重要，如果美联储再次强调“对称”通胀，美元可能会面临一定的压力。


那么本周美联储纪要是否会继续暗示通胀容忍度？2018年剩余时间美联储将加息至少2次已经被定价，目前很难看到更多定价，除非在美联储会议纪要有关通胀容忍度的表达不那么明显，这也意味着预计美国国债收益率目前不会进一步上升，这一观点也符合目前市场的预期及美国宏观政策。如果在会议纪要中淡化通胀对称，即FOMCWill be on2018年最终加息三次（总共4次），那么这一观点将会超出目前市场的预期，届时美元仍然保持强势，黄金承压。


--Analysis of spot gold market--


目前技术面来看，日线级别上看，昨日黄金行情收盘小幅收涨，收得下影线较长的小阳线，值得注意的是昨日下方低位是触及布林带下轨一线反弹，多日收得小阳线，而昨日并没有跌破下轨一线的支撑，表明下方的支撑位还是很强的，4小时级别上看，V型反转，在触及布林带下轨一线之后反弹上行，在触及低位之后反弹，顺势突破布林带中轨一线，而此时布林带三轨再次有平行运作，行情又返回前期的震荡，KDJ三线低位相交大幅上行之后再次受到承压，60分钟级别上看，昨日行情有大幅回落，打破了布林带平行走势，行情短期小幅变大，而此时三轨再次平行运作，表明震荡区间变大，而昨日大幅上行破位中轨。综合来看，虽说近期行情偏向于空头走势，但是日线级别上连续多日收得小阳线，下方的支撑还是很强的，短期指标上又有转向区间震荡走势，昨日晚间的大幅拉升，而白天在触及上轨附近后，白天底部支撑，黄金受大额资金交易刺激，最高触及1296一线，操作上建议短线还是关注昨日低点1288支撑，日内以高空操作为主，上方关注1296A line of resistance.


--Suggestions for spot gold operation--


1Above1296-1298Stop loss1301, Objective1288


2、1286-1288支撑进多，止损1283, Objective1295


如何能以交易为生？

如何能以交易为生，那么首先需要了解市场，市场的本质是什么？市场就是一大群人，他们遍布于世界五大洲，由现代的通讯设备整合在一起，每个人都希望通过别人的亏损来实现自己的获利！市场中的每个人都是敌手！而刚进入市场的投资者如果没有万分的准备，必然是遗憾离场，部分苦苦支撑盲目的找方法学技术咨询老师，最终依然还是亏损！


So why is this happening? Is the road to profitability really so difficult? It has to be said that the fact is so! Profit making techniques and analysis only account for some of the reasons, while human weaknesses are the majority of the reasons. Execution cannot keep up, loss orders are constantly carried, profits cannot be seen shrinking, profit and loss orders cannot be held, heavy positions, frequent operations, in short, it still depends on mentality! Always remember one sentence, talent is the biggest source of risk, and the person who should be most careful is always oneself! The mentality of luck is often the source of significant losses!

We know that one of the weaknesses of human nature is the lack of action, and this will be one of the most fatal weaknesses in doing something. The same goes for gold trading. We may have read through various strategies and techniques related to gold, or learned a lot about gold trading strategies. However, if we lack execution ability, all our efforts will be in vain. We have been learning the principle of 'practice leads to truth' since childhood, and execution is the first step in practice. Only with good execution can we summarize more personal experience and make better progress.


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.