Fang Yuan said Jin:9.1The first bearish point in the downward trend of gold,Trend analysis and strategy

      The survival law of the market is the law of the fittest. No one is destined to be unlucky, but there is a group of people who will be eliminated by the market. War will not give soldiers an opportunity to explain, and investors will not enjoy preferential treatment because you are weak. The big waves wash away the sand, the sinking ones are gold, the wind and clouds sweep away the remnants, and the "remaining" ones are king.

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     yesterdaygoldPrices continue to fluctuate downwards, as announced during the US trading sessionADPThe data performance was mediocre, providing an opportunity for a rebound in gold prices at one point, but Cleveland Fed President Mester said that interest rates need to rise to "slightly above" by early next year4%The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates next year, helping the US dollar stay above20Near the annual high point, this further suppresses the morale of bulls, and prices are rebounding1723It will continue to decline nearby and reach a new low point. In addition, the market has a positive impact on the European Central Bank9Monthly interest rate increase75The expectation of a one basis point increase has further heated up, and the pressure for the Bank of England to raise interest rates has also increased, which has led to a continuous rise in the opportunity cost of holding gold and reduced its attractiveness.

  From a technical perspective, gold fell back to near its intraday low in the late night of yesterday, and the daily chart closed negative. In the morning session, it fell directly and hit its lowest point1705Nearby, pay attention to the support at this location within the day. If1705Effective support, gold will mainly fluctuate today, if it falls below the effective level1705And forced to wear it1700The integer mental barrier will continue to be examined1694even to the extent that1680Nearby. The market can only stand up again1711Only then can the downward trend be ended, otherwise the probability of breaking down is still relatively high

   At the daily level, the Bollinger Bands continue to open downwards, and the price did not break through the resistance of the Bollinger Bands in last week's rebound, which means that the price will once again explore the low point. This week, the price will oscillate downwards along the Bollinger Bands, and the overall trend is weak with a clear direction.4In the early hours, the Bollinger Belt opened downwards and the price showed a stepped downward trend. In the morning, the opening price continued to decline, opening up support near the lower track and testing it1700At the first level, it is expected to break through this support within the day. In terms of operation, it is best to focus on rebounding from high altitude, with attention from above1710-1713Nearby resistance.

   Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the sharp fluctuations in prices have made hedge funds and investors feel uneasy. They choose to reduce trading, but this in turn has led to greater volatility in the oil market, as seen on Tuesday.

Global commodity brokersMarexGlobal Head of Basic ResearchGeorgi SlavovIn most important regions of the world, the consumption of petroleum products does not meet expectations. At the same time, the supply volume along the entire supply chain continues to increase, leading to the current weak oil prices.

   At the same time, this week, central banks represented by the Federal Reserve have expressed their intention to continue raising interest rates to cool inflation, which has increased the resistance faced by economic growth and oil demand growth. The outside world also believes that both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will significantly raise interest rates next month, possibly by as much as75Basis points.

crude oilThe recent trend of prices is quite uncertain and the direction is not very clear. Last week's rebound broke through important resistance, but this week, due to the influence of fundamentals, prices have once again broken through90The US dollar has fallen back to near its low point. At the daily level, the Bollinger Bands are flat, causing prices to rise and fall. The consecutive two day bearish candlestick has brought prices back below the Bollinger Bands, causing them to weaken again. Currently, it is not yet time to bottom out.4At the hour, the Bollinger Bands opened downwards, and the price was sideways near the lower track. Although the US stock market surged one wave yesterday, it quickly gave up the gains, and the price trend was still slightly weak. The intraday operation was mainly focused on rebounding at high levels, while the upper focus was on the high point of yesterday's US stock market rebound, that is91.5Resistance near the US dollar.


Operational strategy:



　　黄金：反弹1710Short nearby, stop loss1722, Objective1680。



　　原油：反弹90.5Short nearby, stop loss91.7, Objective87。

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Our investment philosophy is to first ensure the safety of principal, and then to increase value on the basis of preserving value. But the market is constantly changing and unpredictable. There are two problems with this: firstly, in order to reduce risks, we cannot maximize profits; Secondly, due to market uncertainty, losses are bound to occur at a certain stage.

　　任何成功的交易者都需要遵循严格的交易原则


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