Both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup believe that the UK inflation rate is currently difficult to "peak" and is rising at an unprecedented rate.
The soaring inflation level in the UK seems to have become a bit "unable to stop". Citigroup only announced last week that it expects the UK inflation rate to hit in January next year18%Goldman Sachs immediately pointed out today that the UK inflation rate may exceed next year22%。
Goldman Sachs warns that if natural gas prices continue to rise in the coming months,In January next year, Britain will be forced to raise the energy Price ceiling again80%This will push up the inflation rate to22.4%And led to a decrease in the UK's gross domestic product3.4%。
It is worth noting that the UK energy regulatory agency has previously8month26Announced on the day, starting from this year10The annual energy Price ceiling for ordinary British households will be significantly raised from August80%。
Previous analysis suggested that inflation in the UK is likely to increase this year10The moon has reached its peak, but now Wall Street's predictions of next year's inflation rate in the UK are becoming increasingly "terrifying".
As mentioned earlier on Wall Street,8month18Day to Day8month22In just four days, Citigroup lowered its expectations for UK inflation from15%Up to18.6%And in the8month30On the day, Goldman Sachs announced that its expectations for the UK economy were even bleaker than those of Citigroup.
Regarding this, the two candidates for the new British Prime MinisterLiz TrussandRishi SunakBoth said they would take prompt action to solve the energy crisis. The market expects that the key interest rates of the Bank of England next year may reach as high as4.25%Much higher than the current1.75%。
It is worth mentioning that earlier this month, Goldman Sachs was not so pessimistic. Goldman Sachs had previously predicted that the inflation rate in the UK would likely exceed by the end of the year13%And reach around the beginning of next year15%。
On Monday, Goldman Sachs economistsSven Jari StehnTeam analysis indicates that:
We believe that the risk is shifting towards a more severe and prolonged recession, as natural gas prices may remain high for a long time. Even if energy costs decrease, the UK inflation rate in January next year will at least reach15%This is still enough to plunge the UK economy into recession.
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