Against the backdrop of economic downturn, crisis in the real estate industry, and declining investment returns, wealthy homeowners are repaying their housing mortgage loans in advance, putting pressure on banks.
Updated on2022year8month30day 19:46 Financial Times Cheng Leng Hong Kong Report Chinese residential homeowners are repaying their mortgages in advance, putting pressure on commercial banks that are already struggling to find attractive lending opportunities. Several state-owned bank managers have told the Financial Times that since the beginning of this year, the prepayment amounts of mortgage loans in Beijing and Shanghai branches have increased by20%The magnitude of the increase. Analysts say that these managers' statements are consistent with the recently released national loan data. Moody"s Investor Service (Moody's Investors Service)Senior Credit Rating Director Zhu Shuning(Nicholas Zhu)Early repayment is to reduce debt, which indicates a decrease in demand, consistent with the macro data we see The background for Chinese lenders to strive for early repayment is the decline in the rate of return on investment, the interference of COVID-19's "zero clearing" policy on the economy, and the heavy impact of the liquidity crisis on the real estate industry. In this context, many homeowners are attempting to reduce mortgage interest rates. According to data released by the People's Bank of China,2022In the first half of the year, the balance of households' medium and long-term debt, mainly mortgage loans, only increased2.9%Below2021In the second half of the year5.2%Compared to the same period last year7.3%。 meanwhile,2022In the first half of this year, Chinese households' RMB deposits increased10.3Trillion RMB1.5Trillion US dollars, year-on-year growth13%, from2013Since the beginning of the year, any6The maximum increase during the month period. In contrast, household loans only increased8%, for2007The slowest growth rate since the beginning of the year.
Many people who prepay not only have one property, but also can easily raise cash and have been paying high annual interest rates for their second or third home loans5.5%to6%between. Bill ChenI am an independent consultant from Beijing2020I applied for it in the year125RMB 1000025I purchased a second house in Beijing with a one-year mortgage loan. But due to the monthly6500The rental income of yuan cannot offset the monthly income7826The repayment of yuan (currently three-quarters of the repayment is interest), and there are no other attractive investment options,Bill ChenDecided to repay the loan this summer. He said, "I prefer predictable returns, and saving on mortgage interest seems to be the only predictable return currently available to me The decline in housing prices has also promptedBill ChenPay off the loan in order to sell the house in the event of further decline in housing prices. Chinese homeowners usually have to pay off all loans before selling their homes. Yiju Real Estate Research Institute(E-house China Research and Development Institute)Research Director Yan Yuejin said that the trend of early repayment reflects the increasing caution of Chinese consumers, as Beijing's actions to control heavily indebted real estate developers have suppressed housing prices and led to a decrease in the yield of wealth management products related to the industry to less than4%。 Beijing Consulting Agency Jince Frontier(Jince Frontier)Founder Tan Yifei stated that this policy is in line with the government's broader economic goals. He said: "The deleveraging of household debt will be conducive to financial stability, and is consistent with the initial intention of policymakers to reduce the risk of real estate foam." National Finance and Development Laboratory(National Institution for Finance and Development)According to data, China's household debt ratio - measured by debt to GDP(GDP)By comparison - from2000Less than the year of5%, significantly increasing to2021At the end of the year62%。
But an increase in early repayment will add pressure to Chinese commercial banks, making it more difficult for them to meet the government's loan targets. These banks view mortgage loans as one of the highest quality assets. Banks do not like early repayment, "Yan Yuejin said." If the amount of early payment skyrockets too much, they will not be able to meet the annual loan targets set by regulators China Merchants Bank(China Merchants Bank)express,2022In the first half of the year, its retail business, mainly composed of mortgage loans and credit card debt, only accounted for a small proportion of new loans, much lower than its60%The goal of. The bank's net interest margin (a key profitability indicator) narrowed in the first half of the year4Basis points, to2.44%。 Bank of Communications, ranked sixth in China's total asset value(Bank of Communications) 8month1Japan stated that it will charge for early repayment of housing loans and commercial loans1%Compensation for. The bank, which usually waives such compensation, withdrew the notice after receiving a large number of complaints. The People's Bank of China has made some efforts to improve market sentiment and support home buyers, including5Market quoted interest rate for one-year loans(LPR)Downregulation15Basis points, to4.3%。LPRIt is the reference interest rate for mortgage loans. but2021Most mortgage loans issued before the year were set at high fixed interest rates, while floating rate loans can only be issued every12Adjust interest rates once a month. Therefore, some borrowers are eager to repay their mortgage loans this year in an attempt to apply for a cheaper loan. I am preparing to pay off my mortgage, sell the house, and then buy a larger house for my family to apply for a lower interest rate loanBella JiangSaving costs should be done in advance. Now that the economic outlook is so bad, I don't want banks to sit and earn interest in vain Updated on2022year8month30day 19:46 Financial Times Cheng Leng Hong Kong Report translator/He Li |
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