Base metal Energy in Europe Against the backdrop of tension, driven by the rise in international oil prices, the prices of basic metal commodities have generally rebounded this week. Among them,LME3 Monthly copper rise0.5%Aluminum rise4.0%，SHFE Main contract copper up2.8%Aluminum rise2.4%。 This week, the global dominant inventory of base metal aluminum has slightly accumulated, but overall it still maintains a good state, with copper decreasing month on month10.17%Year-on-year decrease58.99%Aluminum ring to ring ratio increased0.81%Year-on-year decrease49.21%； Mainly benefiting from the increase in aluminum prices, the pre tax profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting per ton has rebounded month on month based on cost estimation this week302 Yuan to-835 Yuan is still at a historically poor level. We will elaborate on the judgment of basic metal commodity prices from both long-term and short-term perspectives.1）In the medium to long term, although the bottom of this round of real estate sales is relatively long, and the inventory of industrial finished products is still at a high level, the macro risks of basic metals have not been fully released. After all, it is already before dawn, especially copper and aluminum, which benefit from the optimization of the supply and demand pattern, and is expected to maintain a tight balance pattern in the long term.2）In the short term, although the recent increase in interest rate expectations by the Federal Reserve has increased macroeconomic uncertainty overseas, which may bring twists and turns to the rebound of basic metal commodities in this round. However, due to the fact that domestic economic concerns have remained relatively eased, combined with factors such as supply side, overseas energy costs have been boosted, forming cost support for some basic metals. It is expected that the rebound in basic metal commodities in the short term will continue, especially for high-energy consuming aluminum, zinc, and other commodities. Equity level, from2021 Since the middle of the year, the valuation adjustment of the base metal sector has followed the peak of the domestic economy, which has relatively fully reflected pessimistic expectations, making the downward and upward resilience of equity stronger than commodities. Focus on copper (Zijin Mining, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry), aluminum (Shenhuo Stock, Tianshan Aluminum, Nanshan Aluminum, Yunaluminum Stock), tin (Tin Industry Stock), zinc (Chihong Zinc Germanium), etc, Other strong alpha attributes such as Sotong Development and Jin Chengxin can be followed in the medium to long term. Energy Metals As we enter the peak season of new energy, demand side growth is expected to further accelerate. In terms of lithium, lithium salt factories in the power limited areas of Sichuan have temporarily ceased production, and the supply-demand contradiction is expected to further intensify, accelerating price increases. Prices are expected to reach new highs in the third quarter. The supply guarantee of lithium resources will be the core bottleneck of the industrial chain in the second half of the year. In terms of cobalt, looking back on the second quarter, the sluggish demand has led to a significant correction in cobalt prices. The month on month acceleration of new energy vehicles and the rebound in consumer electronics are expected to drive an improvement in cobalt demand in the third quarter, and the risk of rapid and significant price declines has been significantly released. In terms of nickel, nickel prices have shown a short-term trend of volatility. With the gradual release of new supply, the downward pressure on prices has increased, highlighting the advantages of companies with upstream integrated layout. At the same time, with the downward turning point of cobalt and nickel prices and the industrialization of high voltage and ultra-high nickel, the marginal cost-effectiveness of the ternary system has improved. In terms of rare earths, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the second batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining, smelting and separation, and the quota for rare earth mining has increased year-on-year throughout the year25%The tight supply pattern of rare earth is expected to continue in the future, and prices are gradually bottoming out. We are optimistic about the release of performance elasticity under the resonance of multiple factors such as capacity expansion and product structure improvement of the NdFeB head company, as well as the order growth brought by the downstream prosperity of the soft magnetic company. Suggested focus: Lithium (Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Yongxing Materials, Tianhua Ultra Clean, China Mining Resources, Shengxin Lithium Energy), Cobalt Nickel (Huayou Cobalt Industry, Weiming Environmental Protection, Zhongwei Co., Ltd., Hanrui Cobalt Industry), Materials (Xiamen Tungsten Industry, Northern Rare Earth, Jinli Permanent Magnet, Zhongke Third Ring, Dixiong, Yunlu Co., Ltd., Hengdian Dongci). noble metal It is suggested that the current node can be added graduallygold。 The oil price has broken through and the platform has been fluctuating in the past six months, and the gold oil ratio has started to repair, which has important signal significance in recession trading. The confirmation of oil break may still require attention, but the gold trend is indeed more clear.1Once stagflation and recession are established in the US cycle, the two types of assets that start first and have the strongest certainty are US bonds and gold;2From the perspective of commodities, it is confirmed that stagflation is heading towards recession, and the gold silver ratio, gold copper ratio, and gold oil ratio are three inflection point signals in sequence. The gold silver ratio is turning around1 Month; Gold copper ratio6 Month, gold oil ratio, or current, is also the last confirmed level;3Maintain the judgment at the beginning of the year, with gold prices throughout the yearN The trend of the font: "stagflation, rapid decline of commodities, and continued recession", with two important nodes:1）The sharp drop in copper has ended, and the bottom of gold has been discovered,1700 dollar/Ounces or difficult to breakdown;2）Oil breaks and falls, and the right side of gold begins to move bullish with US bonds. It is recommended to attach importance to the allocation opportunities of gold stocks. Pay attention to Zhaojin Industry, Chifeng Gold, Yintai Gold, and Shandong Gold. Risk statement 1The progress of global economic recovery is less than expected, and the global demand for new energy vehicles is less than expected;2Excessive release of metal supply. |
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