Analysis suggests that the expected increase in imports of Mongolian coal will be strengthened, and it is difficult for terminal demand to significantly improve within the year. In addition, the reduction of crude steel in the second half of the year will continue, and the profit recovery of coking coal will continue.
8month30Day, coalfuturesSuddenly, both of them dived, causing the entire black system plate to collapse. As of closing, coking coal has fallen by over6%Coke has fallen more than5%The price hit a new low in a month; Iron ore decline5%Thread drop4%Heat wave, glass falling close3%。
Coal stocks have also been affected, with coalETFToday's underperformance5%Individual stocks collectively fell sharply, with Shanmei International and Diantou Energy hitting their limit, while Shanxi Coking Coal fell more than8%Shanghai Energy and Jinkong Coal Industry fell and surpassed7%Several stocks, including Huayang Group, Lanhua Science and Technology Innovation, and Pingmei Group, fell and surpassed6%。
Since the beginning of this year, the trend of the coal sector has been relatively strong, why did it suddenly fall?
In response, CITIC Construction Futures stated that,This week, the Chinese management committee plans to organize a one-day customs clearance drill for Mongolian coal trucks (expected900The Chinese side will further increase the clearance volume of coal trucks.The organization stated that:
At present, the macro sentiment in the domestic market has improved, and raw material inventory is extremely low,01Long contract trades repair winter storage demand and peak season demand, but short trade Federal Reserve rate hikes and Tangshan Steel Mill production cuts800Ten thousand tons.
In addition,Poor terminal demandThe gross profit of threads continues to decline, and the difference in gross profit of coke steel has been repaired to0%Above, it is expected that the positive gross profit margin of coke steel in this round will be maintained2Zhou, this means9At the beginning of the month, the gross profit margin of coke steel may turn negative again, and the first round of reduction is expected to be implemented. The import volume of Mongolian coal is high, and the domestic coal mine supply is temporarily stable, but there is still a demand for replenishment of coke steel in the short term; In the long term, the economy is under pressure, and the certainty of import increment is strong. Coupled with the expected reduction of crude steel, the trend of excess profits from coking coal is difficult to change.
Looking ahead to the future, the expected increase in imports of Mongolian coal will be strengthened,Difficulty in significantly improving terminal demand within the yearIn addition, with the implementation of crude steel reduction in the second half of the year, the profit recovery of coking coal will continue, and the gross profit margin of coking steel will accelerate to turn negative in the near future
For iron ore, threads, and hot coils, Southwest Futures analyst Xia Xuezhao said,The core incentive for its sharp decline comes from the demand side.Xia Xuezhao said:
Currently, we are in the traditional off-season of steel demand, and the widespread high temperature weather across the country has significantly suppressed the demand for threaded steel. From the transaction data of the national building materials market, it can be seen that,8Since January, the national trading volume of building materials has decreased month on month, and weak demand is the core incentive to suppress steel prices.
Chaos Tiancheng Futures believes thatFuture iron ore prices may be slightly stronger：
Last week, there was a significant rebound in global iron ore shipments, a significant increase in shipments from Australia, and an increase in shipments from Brazil and non mainstream sources. On the demand side, with8The steel mills are gradually resuming production in the month, and the production of molten iron continues to increase. The steel mills are increasing their purchases and restocking of iron ore.
Overall, with the rapid recovery of iron ore transportation volume and a slight increase in port arrivals last week, coupled with the continued increase in domestic ore production, it is expected that iron ore supply will continue to increase in the later stage. However, with the continuous recovery of iron ore production in steel mills9Some blast furnaces are still resuming production in the month, and there is still a strong demand for iron ore in the short term. Under the dual increase pattern of supply and demand expectations, the recent trend of mineral prices may be fluctuating
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