XAU/USD price forecast: Is gold price in a hurry?

XAU/Background of USD fundamentals

Gold priceContinuously strengthening, mainly due to2024 yearBullish comments on the US dollar。The market has been rapidly rising, but it may be a bit impatient.Although implicitfederationfundfutures(See table below) indicates that2024 year 12 MonthlyAccumulated interest rate cuts 85 Basis points，butThe Federal Reserve and othersCentral BankI have always been quite cautious in language and highly dependent on data, which could easily affect the prediction of current trends if economic data is against it.

Implied Federal Reserve Fund Futures

Source: Lu Fute

The decline in the yield of US treasury bond bonds is a key factor in the bullish gold price (corresponding to the decline in the real yield). Yesterday, the auction performance of US treasury bond was flat,2The yield of one-year treasury bond bonds continued to decline, while10The yield of the one-year treasury bond bond is still low.

Actual rate of return in the United States（10 Term)

Source: Lu Fute

Today's economic calendar includesCBConsumer confidence and the schedule of Federal Reserve officials throughout the entire US trading session (see economic calendar below).fromAvoidanceFrom a perspective, the war between Israel and Hamas has now entered its fifth day of an agreed ceasefire, which may limit the appeal of gold bars.Finally, the gold prices in China and India have approached local highs, which may suppress demand in these two major gold consuming countries.

Golden Economic Calendar

Source:DailyFX

technical analysis

Daily chart of gold prices

Chart byWarren Venketasand TradingViewprepare

everyday XAU/dollar Price trendStay firm and above2000.00 USDbracepsychologyHandle, butRelative strength index (RSI)Send worrying signals to the bulls, as lower highs may indicate a bearish outlook in the short term/Negative deviation.Gold bulls may be affected 50 Rihe200 Daily moving averageExcited by the prospect of convergence,The moving average may decompose intokdj form.

Resistance level:

• 2081.82
• 2048.79

Support level:

• 2000.00
• 1987.42
• 1950.00