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Euro due to Germany GDP Weakening

2023-11-27 17:05| Publisher: 2233| see: 257| comment: 0

abstract: euro/The analysis of mixed investments in the Eurozone by the US dollar does not provide firm guidance for the path forward. GermanyIfoThe business climate report and European Central Bank officials have become the focus. Euro/The US dollar is consolidating due to expectations of fundamental catalysts. Background of Euro Fundamentals During Thanksgiving, the Euro appreciated against the US dollar, despite the EurozonePMInumber ...

euro/USD analysis

eurozoneMixing ofInvestment has not provided firm guidance for the path forward.
GermanyIfoThe business climate report and European Central Bank officials have become the focus.
euro/dollarConsolidation due to expectations of fundamental catalysts.

Background of Euro Fundamentals

During Thanksgiving, EuroExchangedollarappreciationDespite the EurozonePMIThe data shows some improvement, but still below50Define the threshold for expansion and contraction.EuropeCentral Bank（ECB） monetary policyThe meeting accounts were also released yesterday, emphasizing the uncertainty of the market and the dependence on future data,If necessary, it will increaseInterest rate.On the other hand, the attitude of European Central Bank officials is mixed, and it will be interesting to see how today's speakers can supplement the overall remarks.

GermanyGDPThe data (see economic calendar below) shows that the country has been 2022 The first negative growth since the fourth quarter of this yearquarter(intensifies)Economic recessionWorried, but the year-on-year statistical data is lower than expected.As the largest economy in the eurozone, Germany is often used as an indicator to measure the overall health of the eurozone.The main focus for the next day will be on Eurozone data, including Germany Ifo Business sentiment data and data from European Central Bank officials, including President Lagarde.On this trading day, based on the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Ended, but due to the lingering aftermath of Thanksgiving,VolatilityMay weaken.

Economic Calendar (GMT+02:00)

Euro due to Germany GDP Weakening560 / author: / source:

Source: Lu Fute

Today'soptionDue on1.0800The highest proportion is located near the checkpoint,As the maturity approaches, the currency may weaken against trading.From the perspective of interest rate probability (see table below), there has been almost no change as the market views the current level as the peak of the interest rate hike cycle, and it is expected that the interest rate cut will be 2024 year 6 Starting around the month.

euro/USD: 1.0800 (EU1.18b)、1.0925 (EU925m)、1.1000 (EU759.1m)

European Central Bank interest rateprobability

Euro due to Germany GDP Weakening362 / author: / source:

Source: Lu Fute

technical analysis

euro/USD daily chart

euro/dollarThe daily chart is breaking throughRelative strength index（RSI）alongPsychological controller1.0900 The overbought area has not been successfully pushed up yet。The recent consolidation indicates that the euro/USD trader next weekinflationHesitation before data release.

Resistance level: