Yabao claims that electric vehicle sales have changed the market for this key battery metal.
Yabao, the world's largest lithium producer(Albemarle)It is expected that the high prices of this key battery metal will continue for several years, despite it triggering a wave of expanding supply. The lithium market is2018Year to2020The collapse during the year was due to oversupply, and demand was impacted by the reduction of subsidies for electric vehicles.Benchmark Mineral IntelligenceThe data shows that during this period, its price increased from per ton2.5Ten thousand US dollars fell to6000Below USD. But Eric Norris, head of the lithium business of this American chemical group(Eric Norris)After the rapid growth of electric vehicle sales, the lithium market has undergone a fundamental transformation. since2020Since the beginning of the year, lithium prices have skyrocketed10Multiple times, reaching nearly every ton8A record high of ten thousand US dollars, the entire2022Approaching this level every year has raised concerns that automakers will find it difficult to ensure lithium supply in the next decade. Norris said in an interview, "We believe one of the reasons for such tight supply is that the market has fundamentally changed.2019In, the market growth was not significant, only30Ten thousand tons. The previous growth rate may have been annual3Wanzhi5Ten thousand tons. Nowadays, the market is growing every year20Ten thousand tons, almost the entire scale of the market at that time Norris added that the average size of new supply projects is5000Tons. Yabao is the world's largest lithium producer by market value and is expected to produce from its assets located in Chile, the United States, and Australia this year13Wanzhi14Ten thousand tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, its production will be processed in both the producing country and China. Against the backdrop of soaring prices, it is expected that the company's adjusted EBITDA(ebitda)This year will see growth4Times, to33100 million to35USD100mn The company's comments come as lithium market analysts debate whether this metal, like other commodities, has a boom and bust cycle, or whether it will face structural shortages indefinitely as the emerging industry strives to keep up with the rise of electric vehicles. Lower battery metal prices are crucial for making electric vehicles affordable for consumers. Goldman Sachs(Goldman Sachs)It is predicted that as the Chinese electric vehicle industry faces an oversupply of automobiles and high lithium prices, Chile, Australia, and China will develop new sources of supply2024In, the price of lithium carbonate equivalent will be significantly adjusted to per ton1.1Ten thousand US dollars. according toFastmarkets NewGenAnalysis of approximately40Lithium projects under construction are currently in progress or have completed final feasibility studies2019Annual growth166%。 Lithium analysts say the cost of new supplies is high because the lithium grade being developed for the new project is low, which will prevent prices from falling to per ton2Less than ten thousand US dollars. The Australian government stated this month that it expects2024Annual lithium hydroxide(Another battery grade lithium chemical)The average price of will only decline to per ton4.8About ten thousand US dollars. Canberra also echoes industry concerns that new projects being developed by primary miners are prone to delays, which will lead to "sustained supply shortages in the coming years". However, it added that the increase in inventory of lithium refinery and battery manufacturers was an unknown factor, which might push down prices faster than expected. |
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