Behind the change of US dollar, things are not so simple!

2022-9-26 17:16| Publisher: 2233| see: 276| comment: 0|original author: Patriarchal school establishment|come from: School Advisory

abstract: I have to say, it has been a troubled time recently! Last Friday, the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase on the market was vivid. Today, a wave of unimaginable market rises suddenly. I have to say that recently, the market is really evil and increasingly incomprehensible. First, let's talk about last Friday. It was originally expected that the market would ...
I have to say, it has been a tumultuous time recently!

The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike on the market only last Friday is vivid in my mind. Today, there has been an incredible surge in the market, and it has to be said that there have been enough demons in this market lately, making it increasingly difficult for people to understand.

Speaking of last Friday's situation, it was originally expected that the market would rise and fall. The US dollar index first rose and then fell under pressure at a suitable position, entering a volatile market; But the actual situation is not like this. The US dollar index not only did not experience a correction last Friday, but also further drove up and up, with prices rising all the way up and finally closing at high levels. The daily chart is set as a bullish line, which is quite eye-catching. And this trend has also disrupted many balances, causing the market center to shift. Of course, the upward space and momentum have also become more abundant as a result. Therefore, since the end of last Friday's market, the market's bullish sentiment towards the US dollar has become more positive.

However, during today's Asian session, there was another wave of monster market trends in the market, which occurred at9:00Around the corner, the US dollar index suddenly surged upwards, with the highest price hitting114.58Nearby, it gradually began to decline and temporarily formed a shooting star shape on the daily chart, conveying a stressful emotion.

Although the US dollar index is currently bullish and optimistic, the early morning market has directly confused many people. What is the matter with this? After collecting and organizing information, the school has determined that the main reason for this change comes from the People's Bank of China, as the People's Bank of China issued a notice during the Asian session: "In order to stabilizeforeign exchangeMarket expectations, strengthening macro prudential management, the People's Bank of China has decided to2022year9month28Starting from today, the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales business will be reduced from0Up to20%。” As soon as this news was released, it caused significant market fluctuations, with the US dollar index suddenly rising and the Chinese yuan exchange rate also experiencing significant depreciation. At the same time, the fluctuations in the US dollar index also caused fluctuations in other non US currencies, especially the pound sterling/The US dollar has plummeted directly due to this impact400Surprisingly, it can be said that it shocked the entire market. But why did the People's Bank of China issue such a notice? The school believes that the fundamental reason is still to stabilize market expectations and exchange rate prices. Raising the reserve ratio for foreign exchange risk will enable commercial banks to purchase sufficient US dollars from the market for reserves, and this trend will inevitably cause significant market fluctuations in a short time, but the message is also very clear, that is, to stabilize the exchange rate of US dollars and RMB, not allow the exchange rate to depreciate further, so as to stabilize market sentiment and capital flows, regardless of the impact of this announcement, But the intention conveyed is already very clear, that is, the RMB exchange rate cannot continue to soar uncontrollably and needs to be effectively controlled. Therefore, the next step is to see how the market interprets and responds, whether the central bank's policy is powerful or the market's reaction is powerful, and it remains to be seen.

At the operational level, the overall performance of the US dollar index is currently looking at the bottom of the decline, which means buying the US dollar on dips, while non US currencies are mainly short selling on highs. This will be the main idea for today, for reference!

euro/dollar

Last week, Europe and the United States offered a low high strategy, which can be found in0.9740The position enters, and the price then rises to reach the first target position. This order can be profitable30Points.

In summary, today's US dollar index can consider waiting for opportunities to be much lower, while corresponding to European and American currencies, it can seek opportunities to sell short when high. Based on the market situation, the following suggestions are given, and appropriate reference operations can be made to light positions:

0.9700-0.9710Sell within a range, stop loss20Point, target0.9680、0.9660、0.9640。

Behind the change of US dollar, things are not so simple!835 / author:Patriarchal school establishment / source:School Advisory

Europe and America1HAnalysis Chart


AUD/dollar

Today's second currency pair operation, you can choose to trade in Australia and the United States. The operating strategy is also mainly to sell short on high occasions, and the following suggestions are given based on the market situation. Please refer to the operation as appropriate, light positions:

0.6530-0.6540Sell within a range, stop loss20Point, target0.6510、0.6490、0.6470。

Behind the change of US dollar, things are not so simple!312 / author:Patriarchal school establishment / source:School Advisory

Australia and the United States1HAnalysis Chart


goods in stockgold

Gold fluctuates greatly and currently carries significant risks. However, some key positions can be considered for layout. Therefore, the following suggestions are given: the market will do it if given an opportunity, and wait and see if not given an opportunity. Light positions:

1654-1655Sell within a range, stop loss3USD, target1651、1647、1642。

Behind the change of US dollar, things are not so simple!147 / author:Patriarchal school establishment / source:School Advisory

Spot gold1HAnalysis Chart
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