Crossing the Sea 2017year8month30day

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

8

month

30

day

Focus this week:
8month30day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8monthADPChanges in private employment positions
美国第二季商业获利初值
Season 2 in the United StatesGDPRevised month on month annual rate
美国第二季最终销售修订
美国第二季消费者支出修订
Season 2 in the United StatesGDP平减指数修订
Season 2 in the United StatesPCE物价指数修订

8month31day(Thursday)
U.S.A8monthChallengerNumber of layoffs planned by the company
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A7月实质个人消费月率
U.S.A7Monthly personal income rate
U.S.A7月经季节调整个人支出月率
U.S.A7monthPCEprice index
U.S.A7Dallas Federal Reserve BankPCE
U.S.A8Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A7Monthly Housing Pending Sales Index

9month1day(Friday)
U.S.A8Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A8Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A8Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A8月劳动人口就业参与率
U.S.A8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A7Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A8monthISMmanufacturingPMI
U.S.A8Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month



Today's important economic data:   
17：00eurozone8Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧forecast1.06‧Previous value1.05
17：00eurozone8Monthly Economic Prosperity Index‧forecast111.3‧Previous value111.2
17：00eurozone8Monthly Industrial Prosperity Index‧forecast4.8‧Previous value4.5
17：00eurozone8Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index‧forecast13.9‧Previous value14.1
17：00eurozone8Final value of monthly consumer confidence index‧Predict negative1.5‧Negative front value1.5
17：00eurozone8Monthly Consumer Inflation Expectation Index‧Previous value11.7
20：00Germany8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.4%
20：00Germany8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+1.8%‧Previous value+1.7%
20：00Germany8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.4%
20：00Germany8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+1.7%‧Previous value+1.5%
20：15U.S.A8monthADPChanges in private employment positions‧Forecast increase18.5Ten thousand‧Previous value increase17.8Ten thousand
20：30美国第二季商业获利初值‧Previous value-2.6%
20：30美国第二季国内生产总值(GDP)Revised month on month annual rate‧forecast+2.7%‧Previous value+2.6%
20：30美国第二季最终销售修订‧forecast+2.7%‧Previous value+2.6%
20：30美国第二季消费者支出修订‧Previous value+2.8%
20：30美国第二季国内生产总值(GDP)平减指数修订‧forecast+1.0%‧Previous value+1.0%
20：30美国第二季核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数修订‧forecast+0.9%‧Previous value+0.9%
20：30Personal consumption expenditure in the second quarter of the United States(PCE)物价指数修订‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.3%
20：30加拿大第二季流动帐平衡‧forecast174.0A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value140.5A deficit of one billion yuan

News of the Week
Monday/U.S.A7月批发库存增加0.4%，零售库存下降0.2%
U.S.A7月商品贸易收支初值为逆差651.0USD100mn

Tuesday/朝鲜发射导弹飞过日本领空，半岛紧张情势急剧升级
标普认为美国政府若能避免违约，便可保住AA+credit rating

U.S.A8The monthly consumer confidence index is122.9
U.S.A6Monthly standard and standard/CASE-SHILLER 20个大都会地区房价较上年上涨5.7%

8month29day
LondongoldMorning order price:1323.40
London gold afternoon fixing price:1218.65


Today's Introduction
美国总统特朗普周二发出警告称，朝鲜发射弹道导弹飞越日本北海道北方落入海中以展示武力，美国对此进行响应的所有选项都在台面上。朝鲜此次导弹试射进一步加剧了东亚的紧张局势，美国和韩国在朝鲜半岛举行年度军事演习，触怒了把军演视为侵略准备的朝鲜。朝鲜在金正恩的领导下，不顾联合国制裁，已进行数十次弹道导弹试射，但飞越日本本土的发射实属罕见。特朗普称，全世界已“一清二楚地”收到了朝鲜最新发出的信息；他曾誓言不会让朝鲜研发出可攻击美国本土的核导弹。白宫称，特朗普和日本首相安倍晋三表示并同意朝鲜对美国、日本和韩国“构成严重及愈来愈直接的威胁”。在朝鲜发射导弹后，投资人涌向避险资产。美元指数跌至逾两年半低位，但之后反弹；10年期美债收益率下跌，金价触及逾九个月高位。

朝鲜中央通讯社周三报导，朝鲜领导人金正恩在周二的一次演习中指导了火星-12中程弹道导弹的发射，意在反击韩国和美国军队的联合军事演习。美国国防部发言人ColonelRobert Manning称，外交手段仍是华盛顿处理朝鲜问题的优先选项。朝鲜誓言绝不放弃其武器计划，称这是对抗美国及其盟友敌意所必需的。



XAU London Gold - 朝鲜半岛紧张局势加剧，金价创九个月高位

金价周二触及逾九个月高点后回吐大部分涨幅，因围绕朝鲜的紧张形势有所缓解，使美元自多年低点反弹。金价一度触及11month9The highest level since the beginning of the day1325.94美元。美元周三自两年半低点回升，因朝鲜发射导弹飞越日本上空的疑虑消退。朝鲜周三表示，已进行中程弹道导弹试射，以反击美韩联合军事演习，同时也是牵制关岛这一目标的重要序幕。美国驻联合国大使黑利(NikkiHaley)周二表示，美国不会允许朝鲜继续无法无天，在全球统一阵线对抗朝鲜之际，已经到了平壤当局承认“作茧自缚”的时候。


经历了4Month and6月两度于1300美元闯关失败后，金价终在本周一一举攻破，技术上并可望以整固双底的型态继续往上冲，以6month6Daily high1296to7month10Daily low1204的相距幅度计算，上延涨幅可推算至1388美元。另外，去年11month9日，金价曾一度飊涨至1337.40美元，这亦会为一个上阻参考。由2012Year to2015年累计跌幅750美元，黄金比率计算38.2%的反弹可至1333Expand to50%Then it is1420水平。支持位方面，较近先留意1298and1290To the next level1280USD.
        
London Gold8month30day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1298- 1320
Resistance level:1334- 1354
Support bit:1290- 1280

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month1Day - 791.88ton
8month2Day - 791.88ton
8month3Day - 791.88ton
8month4Day - 787.14ton
8month7Day - 786.87ton
8month8Day - 786.87ton
8month9Day - 786.87ton
8month10Day - 786.87ton
8month11Day - 786.87ton
8month14Day - 791.01ton
8month15Day - 791.01ton
8month16Day - 795.44ton
8month17Day - 795.44ton
8month18Day - 799.29ton
8month21Day - 799.29ton
8month22Day - 799.29ton
8month23Day - 799.29ton
8month24Day - 799.29ton
8month25Day -805.20ton
8month28Day -814.36ton
8month29Day -816.43ton

8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year7month7day)

Global:33465.1(+39.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton (-3.2ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1715.8ton (+28.5ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton


XAG London Silver - 银价上破三角，延展进一步涨势

伦敦白银方面，银价在周一已突破缘自6月初高位的下降趋向线，亦即同时为三角型态的顶部，此前两周银价一直处于窄幅横盘，随着银价向上破位，料银价可进一步伸延近月的升势，下一级阻力将看至17.60and17.90美元，较大阻力则料为18.30美元。下方依据为起延至7month7日的上升趋向线，目前设立支撑于17.17美元，较大支撑在16.90USD.     

London Silver8month30day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.30– 17.60
Resistance level:17.90– 18.30
Support bit:17.10– 16.90
                                                        
iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month7Day - 10562.93ton
8month8Day - 10530.59ton
8month9Day - 10530.59ton
8month10Day - 10445.33ton
8month11Day - 10445.33ton
8month14Day - 10445.33ton
8month15Day - 10445.33ton
8month16Day - 10445.33ton
8month17Day - 10401.24ton
8month18Day - 10401.24ton
8month21Day - 10401.24ton
8month22Day - 10401.24ton
8month23Day - 10401.24ton
8month24Day - 10363.03ton
8month25Day - 10363.03ton
8month28Day - 10363.03ton
8month29Day - 10363.03ton


EUR euro - 欧元继续持稳，瞩目非农报告

欧元兑美元周三 脱离两年半高位，因投资者对朝鲜导弹试射的担忧暂时缓解。朝鲜周二发射弹道导弹飞越日本北海道上空，最初引起投资者恐慌，并触发美元下跌。但美元稍后回升，因美股周二上涨，且美国10年期公债收益率脱离九个月低点。美国周五将公布备受关注的非农就业报告，路透调查访问的60位分析师预估中值为，8Monthly non farm employment opportunities are expected to increase18.2Ten thousand.

上周在杰克逊霍尔召开的全球央行年会上，美联储主席耶伦没有提及货币政策，同时，欧洲央行行长德拉吉也未有口头压低欧元，致使欧元节节上升。随着近三个交易日的强势上冲，令至MACD亦已突破讯号线，示意着中期升势大有机会延续。以自2014Year to2016年欧元的累计跌幅计算，50%The rebound level is1.2170Expand to61.8%Then it is1.26. Additionally,200个平均线1.2360亦可作为一阻力参考。预估下方支持先留意1.1910，下一级则指向1.18Horizontal.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2170 - 1.2360 - 1.2600
support1.2000 - 1.1800

Focus:
8month30day(three): Eurozone8Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧Germany8monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
8month31day(four): Germany7Monthly actual retail sales‧France8monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧France7monthPPIMonthly rate‧Italy7Monthly unemployment rate‧Germany8Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧Italy8monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value‧eurozone8monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPAnnual rate initial value‧eurozone7Monthly unemployment rate
9month1day(five): Italy8monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany8monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧eurozone8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value‧意大利第二季GDPFinal value

Related news
Germany9monthGFKConsumer confidence index rises10.9
France7月消费者支出较前月升0.7%
France Season 2GDP终值为较前季增长0.5%


JPY yen - 美元反弹，因朝鲜相关担忧缓解

美元周三从两年半低点反弹，因围绕朝鲜发射导弹飞越日本领空的担忧缓解。美元兑日圆涨至110水平附近。周二，美元兑日圆一度触及四个半月低点108.25，之后则掉头反弹收涨。  联合国安理会谴责朝鲜发射导弹行为“蛮横”，但未威胁对朝鲜实施新的制裁。朝鲜周三发布声明称，此次试射是在太平洋采取军事行动的第一步。但市场对此未予理会。朝鲜媒体有关导弹试射的报导没有像往常那样夸口技术进步，表明此次试射可能没有实现其既定目标。市场人士目前在关注周五出炉的美国8月非农就业报告。之前数据显示，随着就业市场改善及房价上涨，美国8月消费者信心升至五个月高位。

图表所见，双顶型态的两个顶部分别为5month11Of114.36and7month11Of114.49，颈线位置即6month14day108.81，视为一个关键水平，倘若成功破位，下试目标预估可至108To the extent that107.20，关键直指105关口。上方阻力参考25The current position of the balance moving average109.90as well as112.20水平，较大阻力则留意114.50Horizontal.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance110.65 –112.20 –114.50*
support108.80** –108.00 –107.20

Focus:
8month30day(three): Japan7Monthly retail sales annual rate
8month31day(four): Japan7Monthly construction order annual rate‧房屋开工年率‧工业生产初值‧Japan8月一个月预估值‧Japan9月两个月预估值‧Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
9month1day(five)：日本第二季商业资本支出年率‧Japan8Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI‧Consumer confidence index

Related news
Japan7The monthly talent seeking job search ratio is1.52, creating1974year2The highest since the beginning of the month
Japan7The adjusted unemployment rate for the menstrual season is2.8%
Japan7Monthly household expenses have decreased compared to the previous month1.9%, decreased compared to the same period last year0.2%


GBP pound - 英镑短线弱势依然

欧盟负责英国退欧事务谈判的首席代表巴尼尔(MichelBarnier)周一表示，他担心退欧谈判进展缓慢；英国脱欧事务大臣戴维斯则呼吁前进要有“想象力和弹性”。英国官员们周一抵达布鲁塞尔，希望推动欧盟谈判朝向退欧后关系进行；但欧盟在与英国就退欧账单和其他迫切的“分手”问题上达成协议前，拒绝展开这方面的谈判。较迫切的分手问题包括2019year3月之后欧盟公民在英国的权利等。

图表所见，英镑兑美元显著跌破上升趋向线，并横盘一周多时间后，于上周二更跌破50天平均线，估计后市若再而跌破7月险守着的1.28关口，料英镑将出现较具规模的调整。同时，MACD已初步跌破讯号线，亦反映着汇价作进一步下跌的机会较大。预计向下延伸支持料为250Balance moving average1.2640水平。另一方面，阻力可参考1.30and25Balance moving average1.3050水平，下一级料为1.3160。        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3000 - 1.3040 –1.3160
support1.2800 - 1.2640

Focus:
8month30day(three): UK7Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
8month31day(four): UK8monthGfKConsumer confidence index
9month1day(five): UK8monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI

Related news
欧盟敦促迅速进行退欧谈判；英国则寻求弹性

NATIONWIDE: UK8月房价较前月下跌0.1%, up from the same period last year2.1%


CHF Swiss franc - 避险情绪推动瑞郎

技术图表所见，预估支持则可会看至0.9430及以至参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251。至于上方阻力则预估为0.9560and100Balance moving average0.9740Horizontal.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9560 - 0.9740
support0.9430 - 0.9251

Related news
Switzerland8monthKOF领先成长指标为104.1
UBS Group(UBS)7月瑞士消费指标微升至1.38

Focus:
9month1day(five)Switzerland7Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland8Monthly manufacturing industryPMI


AUD AUD - 澳元呈现区间波动

澳元周三攀升至一个月高点，迫近0.80关口，数据显示澳洲第二季建筑支出增幅创纪录。澳洲统计局周三公布数据显示，第二季建筑完工额较第一季激增9.3%，创纪录最大增幅，并远超路透调查预估的增长1%。这一出人意料的增幅可能推动澳洲经济增速大大超越最初预期。澳元8月月线料基本持平，受围绕朝鲜的地缘政治紧张局势以及缺乏重要刺激因素影响，投资者仍保持警惕。

技术走势而言，澳元兑美元在近期区间内波动，上周大部分时间处于0.7880to0.7950的区间，需待破位后才有较明确方向。较大阻力则可留意0.80Pass, the next level is visible50Monthly average line0.8050。另一边厢，以去年十二月低位0.7160起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为0.7720and0.7610Expand to61.8%by0.7505。
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7950 - 0.8000 –0.8050 –0.8230
support0.7780 - 0.7720 - 0.7610 –0.7505
                                                               
Related news
澳洲第二季经季节调整的建筑完工额较前季跳增9.3%
Australia7月建筑许可经季调后较前月下降1.7%, decreased compared to the same period last year13.9%

Focus:
8month31day(four): Australia7monthHIA新屋销售月率‧澳洲第二季资本支出季率‧前建筑资本支出季率‧厂房/机械设备资本支出‧Australia7月民间部门信贷月率‧房屋信贷月率
9month1day(five): Australia8monthAIGManufacturing Index


NZD New Zealand dollars - 新西兰央行总裁称乐见本币贬值以刺激通胀

新西兰央行总裁惠勒周三表示，需要纽元走软来帮助扶持出口产业和推高通胀，此番讲话引发纽元一度下跌。惠勒将在9month26日卸任。纽元本月很大机会将录得自2016year1月来最大月度跌幅，部分源于央行近几周不断喊话压低汇率。投资者亦抛售纽元，因揣测央行可能入市干预。纽元本月势将跌3.4%, for2016年初跌5.2%以来的最大单月跌幅；但纽元兑美元今年迄今仍涨近5%。最近经济数据疲弱给投资者提供了对新西兰元多仓了结获利的理由。新西兰央行8月坚持其中性立场后，投资者打消了对新西兰加息的预期，令新西兰元承压。在9月新西兰举行大选前，预计纽元将继续下行。工党领导层进行调整后，大选竞争变得愈发激烈。   

纽元兑美元近日走势处于低位横盘，倘若以五月至今的累积升幅计算，50%的回吐水平会看至0.7190Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then in the0.71。目前关键支持预估为250Balance moving average0.7140To the extent that0.70关口，假若双双失守则纽元料会面临新一轮跌势，下延支撑先可看至0.68水平。另一方面，上方阻力见于50Balance moving average0.7330，较瞩目为100Monthly average line0.7570Since last year9月触碰以来，汇价就一直没能冲破此技术指标，因此，若可突破此区，纽元兑美元才可望摆脱势。
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7330 - 0.7570 - 0.7745
support0.7140 –0.7000 - 0.6800/40
                                                        
Related news
央行总裁惠勒：要提高可贸易品通胀，需要纽元贬值

New Zealand7月建筑许可经季调后较前月下降0.7%

Focus:
8month31day(four): New Zealand8monthNBNZ商业展望指数‧NBNZBusiness Activity Index
9month1day(five)：新西兰第二季贸易条件季率



CAD Cad - 加元再探1.24resistance

美元兑加元方面，汇价于七月底在1.24止住了跌势，其后持续反弹至8month15Rigaojian1.2778，但此后重新回落，至今重回1.24区间。图表所见，若果美元兑加元进一步下破1.24这个关键水平，预料将延伸弱势，下探支持看至1.2175To the extent that1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916。上方阻力则会回看25Balance moving average1.2590and1.28Horizontal. Calculated by the golden ratio,38.2%的反弹幅度见于1.2940Horizontal, extended to50%Then it is1.31。
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2720 - 1.2940
support1.2400* –1.2175 –1.2000

Focus:   
8month30day(three)：加拿大第二季流动帐平衡
8month31day(four): Canada Season 2GDPSeasonal rate‧GDPMonth on month annual rate‧Canada6monthGDPMonthly rate
9month1day(five): Canada8monthMarkimanufacturingPMI

Related news
Canada7Monthly industrial product prices have declined compared to the previous month1.5%, up from the same period last year1.3%

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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)