Crossing the Sea 2017year8month29day (foreign exchange)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

8

month

29

day

EUR euro - 欧元突破1.20关口延续强势

朝鲜周二发射的一枚导弹飞过日本领空，令人益发担心美国和朝鲜的紧张情势。朝鲜在金正恩的领导下，已进行数十次弹道导弹试射，但飞越日本本土的发射实属罕见。朝鲜领导人金正恩本月稍早曾威胁要向美国在太平洋地区领土关岛附近海域发射导弹。此前美国总统特朗普警告称，如果威胁到美国，朝鲜方面将面临“火与怒”。投资者正在注意特朗普将如何对朝鲜作出反应，且唯恐特朗普发出任何激烈言论升高紧张局势。

欧元兑美元走势，随着近三个交易日的强势上冲，令至MACD亦已突破讯号线，示意着中期的升势延续。以自2014Year to2016年欧元的累计跌幅计算，50%The rebound level is1.2170Expand to61.8%Then it is1.26. Additionally,200个平均线1.2360亦可作为一阻力参考。预估下方支持先留意1.20关口，下一级则指向1.18Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2170 - 1.2360 -1.2600
support 1.2000 - 1.1800
                                                      
Focus:
8month29day(two): Germany9monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧France7Monthly consumer expenditure rate‧France Season 2GDP终值季率
8month30day(three): Eurozone8Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧Germany8monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
8month31day(four): Germany7Monthly actual retail sales‧France8monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧France7monthPPIMonthly rate‧Italy7Monthly unemployment rate‧Germany8Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧Italy8monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value‧eurozone8monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPAnnual rate initial value‧eurozone7Monthly unemployment rate
9month1day(five): Italy8monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany8monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧eurozone8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value‧意大利第二季GDPFinal value

Related news
Germany9monthGFKConsumer confidence index rises10.9
France7月消费者支出较前月升0.7%
France Season 2GDP终值为较前季增长0.5%


JPY yen - 朝鲜试射导弹飞过日本领空

鲜周二早间发射了一枚导弹，这枚导弹飞过日本领空并落入北海道附近的海域，朝鲜半岛紧张情势急剧升级。朝鲜在金正恩的命令下进行了多次弹道导弹试验，不过导弹飞过日本领空还是2009年以来的首次。美元兑日圆滑落至108.30Horizontal, for4月来最高。投资者还关注特朗普将如何应对朝鲜以及推动税改进展。特朗普预计在本周会启动一项重大努力，以使公众相信税改的必要性。

图表所见，双顶型态的两个顶部分别为5month11Of114.36and7month11Of114.49，颈线位置即6month14day108.81，视为一个关键水平，至今重新回落并大有机会再挑战颈线支撑，倘若成功破位，下试目标预估可至108To the extent that107.20，关键直指105关口。上方阻力参考25The current position of the balance moving average110.10as well as112.20水平，较大阻力则留意114.50Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 110.65 – 112.20 – 114.50*
support 108.80** – 108.00 – 107.20

Focus:
8month30day(three): Japan7Monthly retail sales annual rate
8month31day(four): Japan7Monthly construction order annual rate‧房屋开工年率‧工业生产初值‧Japan8月一个月预估值‧Japan9月两个月预估值‧Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
9month1day(five)：日本第二季商业资本支出年率‧Japan8Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI‧Consumer confidence index

Related news
Japan7The monthly talent seeking job search ratio is1.52, creating1974year2The highest since the beginning of the month
Japan7The adjusted unemployment rate for the menstrual season is2.8%
Japan7Monthly household expenses have decreased compared to the previous month1.9%, decreased compared to the same period last year0.2%


GBP pound - 英镑短线弱势依然

欧盟负责英国退欧事务谈判的首席代表巴尼尔(Michel Barnier)周一表示，他担心退欧谈判进展缓慢；英国脱欧事务大臣戴维斯则呼吁前进要有“想象力和弹性”。英国官员们周一抵达布鲁塞尔，希望推动欧盟谈判朝向退欧后关系进行；但欧盟在与英国就退欧账单和其他迫切的“分手”问题上达成协议前，拒绝展开这方面的谈判。较迫切的分手问题包括2019year3月之后欧盟公民在英国的权利等。

图表所见，英镑兑美元上周显著跌破上升趋向线，并横盘一周多时间后，于上周二更跌破50天平均线，估计后市若再而跌破7月险守着的1.28关口，料英镑将出现较具规模的调整。同时，MACD已初步跌破讯号线，亦反映着汇价作进一步下跌的机会较大。预计向下延伸支持料为250Balance moving average1.2640水平。另一方面，阻力可参考1.30and25Balance moving average1.3050水平，下一级料为1.3160。   

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3000 - 1.3040 – 1.3160
support 1.2800 - 1.2640


Focus:
8month30day(three): UK7Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
8month31day(four): UK8monthGfKConsumer confidence index
9month1day(five): UK8monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI

Related news
欧盟敦促迅速进行退欧谈判；英国则寻求弹性

NATIONWIDE: UK8月房价较前月下跌0.1%, up from the same period last year2.1%


CHF Swiss franc - 避险情绪推动瑞郎

技术图表所见，预估支持则可会看至0.9430及以至参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251。至于上方阻力则预估为0.9560and100Balance moving average0.9740Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9560 - 0.9740
support 0.9430 - 0.9251

Focus:
8month28day(one)：瑞士第二季非农就业岗位
8month30day(three)UBS Group(UBS)Switzerland7Monthly consumption indicators‧Switzerland8monthKOF领先成长指标‧Investor confidence index
9month1day(five)Switzerland7Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland8Monthly manufacturing industryPMI


AUD AUD - 澳元呈现区间波动

澳元和纽元兑日圆周二重挫至数周低位，因朝鲜半岛紧张局势升级促使投资者寻找避险港湾。韩国和日本官员表示，朝鲜周二早间发射了一枚导弹，这枚导弹飞过日本领空并落入北海道附近的海域，朝鲜半岛紧张情势急剧升级。基金因而削减利差交易中风险较高的仓位，利差交易通常利好风险较高的澳纽货币。美国、日本和韩国认为朝鲜进行的是弹道导弹测试，而朝鲜则表示其发射的是将通讯卫星送入轨道的火箭。朝鲜上次发射导弹飞过日本领空还是在2009Year.

技术走势而言，澳元兑美元在近期区间内波动，上周大部分时间处于0.7880to0.7950的区间，需待破位后才有较明确方向。较大阻力则可留意0.80Pass, the next level is visible50Monthly average line0.8050。另一边厢，以去年十二月低位0.7160起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为0.7720and0.7610Expand to61.8%by0.7505。

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7950 - 0.8000 – 0.8050 – 0.8230
support 0.7780 - 0.7720 -0.7610 – 0.7505

Focus:
8month30day(three): Australia7Monthly building permit rate‧澳洲第二季建筑完工额季率
8month31day(four): Australia7monthHIA新屋销售月率‧澳洲第二季资本支出季率‧前建筑资本支出季率‧厂房/机械设备资本支出‧Australia7月民间部门信贷月率‧房屋信贷月率
9month1day(five): Australia8monthAIGManufacturing Index


NZD New Zealand dollars - 政府下调经济展望打压纽元

纽元兑美元近日走势处于低位横盘，倘若以五月至今的累积升幅计算，50%的回吐水平会看至0.7190Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then in the0.71。目前关键支持预估为250Balance moving average0.7140To the extent that0.70关口，假若双双失守则纽元料会面临新一轮跌势，下延支撑先可看至0.68水平。另一方面，上方阻力见于50Balance moving average0.7330，较瞩目为100Monthly average line0.7570Since last year9月触碰以来，汇价就一直没能冲破此技术指标，因此，若可突破此区，纽元兑美元才可望摆脱势。
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7330 - 0.7570 -0.7745
support 0.7140 – 0.7000 - 0.6800/40

Focus:
8month30day(three): New Zealand7Monthly building permit rate
8month31day(four): New Zealand8monthNBNZ商业展望指数‧NBNZBusiness Activity Index
9month1day(five)：新西兰第二季贸易条件季率



CAD Cad - 加元再探1.24resistance

美元兑加元方面，过去两个月汇价一路下滑，直至七月底似乎在1.24止住了跌势，至上周二高见至1.2778；但此后又复跌势，当前回见至1.26水平附近。上方阻力将回看50Balance moving average1.2820水平。以gold比率计算，38.2%的反弹幅度见于1.2940Horizontal, extended to50%Then it is1.31。反之，近日正处于调整，若果进一步下破1.24这个关键水平，预料延伸跌幅可会看至1.2175To the extent that1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916。

      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2720 - 1.2940
support 1.2400* – 1.2175 – 1.2000
                                                                       

Focus:   
8month29day(two): Canada7月工业产品价格‧原材料价格
8month30day(three)：加拿大第二季流动帐平衡
8month31day(four): Canada Season 2GDPSeasonal rate‧GDPMonth on month annual rate‧Canada6monthGDPMonthly rate
9month1day(five): Canada8monthMarkimanufacturingPMI


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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)