Crossing the Sea 2017year8month25day(foreign exchange)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

8

month

25

day

EUR euro - 欧元争持待变，关注央行年会

技术走势而言，欧元兑美元过去两周大致处于1.1650to1.1850区间进行横盘，并交迭于短期平均线，整体行情尚处于争持待变局面。预计上向较大阻会先参考8month2Daily high1.1909，若可作出突破，下一个焦点则会是1.20关口，上一次持于此关口上方要追溯至2015year1月，若欧元可重回此区上方，技术面将巩固欧元的进一步强势。然而，亦要留意当前10Days and25天平均线分别位于1.1775and1.1770，故若欧元延续着横盘，甚或出现下调，则将促使利淡交叉的呈现，同时指示着中期转弱的讯号。预估下延支持将看至1.16水平。以gold比率计算，50%and61.8%的调整水平将见于1.1510and1.1415Horizontal.
       
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1850 – 1.1900 - 1.2000 – 1.2060
support 1.1650* - 1.1600 – 1.1510 – 1.1415


Focus:
8month25day(five): Germany8monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index
8month28day(one): Italy8月制造业商业信心指数‧Consumer confidence index‧eurozone7monthM3Annual rate of goods supply‧针对家庭的放款
8month29day(two): Germany9monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧France7Monthly consumer expenditure rate‧France Season 2GDP终值季率
8month30day(three): Eurozone8Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧Germany8monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
8month31day(four): Germany7Monthly actual retail sales‧France8monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧France7monthPPIMonthly rate‧Italy7Monthly unemployment rate‧Germany8Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧Italy8monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value‧eurozone8monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPAnnual rate initial value‧eurozone7Monthly unemployment rate
9month1day(five): Italy8monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany8monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧eurozone8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value‧意大利第二季GDPFinal value

Related news
德国央行月报称今年经济成长或超过预期
France8月企业景气指数升至111创近10年最高
eurozone8月消费者信心指数初值为负1.5
France8月消费者信心连续第三个月下滑，从104lower103
德国第二季度GDP确认为较前季成长0.6%Growth compared to the same period last year0.8%
Germany7Monthly import prices have decreased compared to the previous month0.4%, up from the same period last year1.9%
France7月失业人数增3.4910000 people to351.81万人的近一年最高


欧洲央行管委魏德曼呼吁迅速结束资产购买计划
ECB管委韩伟森称不担心欧元强势，指欧元兑美元年内上涨12%是反映区内经济动能


JPY yen - 特朗普有关政府关门的言论曾拖累美元

图表所见，双顶型态的两个顶部分别为5month11Of114.36and7month11Of114.49，颈线位置即6month14day108.81，视为一个关键水平，至今重新回落并大有机会再挑战颈线支撑，倘若成功破位，下试目标预估可至108To the extent that107.20，关键直指105关口。上方阻力参考25The current position of the balance moving average110.65as well as112.20水平，较大阻力则留意114.50Horizontal.
      

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 110.65 – 112.20 – 114.50*
support 108.80** – 108.00 – 107.20


Focus:
8month29day(two): Japan7All monthly household expenses‧Talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate
8month30day(three): Japan7Monthly retail sales annual rate
8month31day(four): Japan7Monthly construction order annual rate‧房屋开工年率‧工业生产初值‧Japan8月一个月预估值‧Japan9月两个月预估值‧Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
9month1day(five)：日本第二季商业资本支出年率‧Japan8Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI‧Consumer confidence index


Related news
Japan7Monthly National CoreCPIIncrease compared to the same period last year0.5%
日本东京地区8Monthly overallCPIIncrease compared to the same period last year0.5%
日本东京地区8Monthly CoreCPIIncrease compared to the same period last year0.4%
Japan7Monthly National OverallCPIIncrease compared to the same period last year0.4%


GBP pound - 英镑短线弱势依然

英国国家统计局周四确认第二季国内生产总值(GDP)为较前季增长0.3%，第一季为增长0.2%，从而使英国创下2017年初以来发达经济体中的最慢增速。数据显示，家庭支出增幅微乎其微，企业投资亦持平。另一份报告显示，疲弱表现将延续。英国工业联盟(CBI)Announcement,8月零售销售增速放缓程度为一年多来最高。周四的数据显示家庭支出正在减弱，英国第二季家庭支出较上季和较上年同期均创2014年底以来最慢增速。尽管英镑贬值且全球经济强劲，但投资及对外贸易未能抵消家庭支出的疲弱。英国国家统计局称，因英镑弱势，5Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Increase compared to the same period last year2.9%，创四年来最高升幅；4-6月实质家庭支出仅较前季增长0.1%。企业投资同比持平，低于分析师预期的增长0.5%。凈贸易对经济较前季增幅的贡献为零，对按年增幅还构成0.5%的拖累。英国6月开始就退欧进行正式谈判，鉴于2019year3月的退欧截止日期，企业抱怨称谈判进程缓慢。欧盟谈判人员希望就会费、欧盟移民的权利，和英国与爱尔兰边境问题达成一致，然后在今年稍晚展开关于未来贸易安排的更具实质性的谈判。这种不确定性和英镑下滑，也对在英国工作的欧盟工人产生不利影响。欧盟工人对一些行业来说至关重要。

图表所见，英镑兑美元上周显著跌破上升趋向线，并横盘一周多时间后，于上周二更跌破50天平均线，估计后市若再而跌破7月险守着的1.28关口，料英镑将出现较具规模的调整。同时，MACD已初步跌破讯号线，亦反映着汇价作进一步下跌的机会较大。预计向下延伸支持料为250Balance moving average1.2640水平。另一方面，阻力可参考1.30and25Balance moving average1.3050水平，下一级料为1.3160。  

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3000 - 1.3040 – 1.3160
support 1.2800 - 1.2640
                                                               

Focus:
8month30day(three): UK7Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
8month31day(four): UK8monthGfKConsumer confidence index
9month1day(five): UK8monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI


Related news
英国希望退欧后与欧盟订立临时性关税协议以及新的贸易协议

britain8The monthly retail sales difference is negative10, for2016year7月以来最差


CHF Swiss franc - 瑞郎走低，因风险偏好回温

技术图表所见，若果以美元兑瑞郎近一轮的累计涨幅计算，50%and61.8%的回调水平将为0.9605and0.9565，较大支持则可会看至0.9430及以至参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251。至于上方阻力则预估为100Balance moving average0.9750and250Balance moving average0.99水平，关键指向1.00Gateway.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9750 -0.9990* – 1.0000**
support 0.9605 - 0.9565 – 0.9430 - 0.9251


Related news
Switzerland7The monthly trade surplus is35.11Billion Swiss francs
瑞士第二季工业订单较上年同期增长2.8%


Focus:
8month28day(one)：瑞士第二季非农就业岗位
8month30day(three)UBS Group(UBS)Switzerland7Monthly consumption indicators‧Switzerland8monthKOF领先成长指标‧Investor confidence index
9month1day(five)Switzerland7Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland8Monthly manufacturing industryPMI




AUD AUD - 澳元呈现区间波动

澳元陷入窄幅区间波动，投资人谨慎地等待美联储在怀俄明州杰克森霍尔举办的会议上主要央行官员的讲话。不论耶伦还是德拉吉，预计都不会释出新的政策信号，但投资人仍对官员们的讲话保持谨慎，因为可能引发对亚币的抛售。本周澳洲经济面事件颇为淡静，下周将有一些数据登场，其中第二季国内生产总值(GDP)Will be on9month6Announced daily.

澳元兑美元在近期区间内波动，本周大部分时间处于0.7880to0.7950的区间，需待破位后才有较明确方向。较大阻力则可留意0.80Pass, the next level is visible50Monthly average line0.8050。另一边厢，以去年十二月低位0.7160起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为0.7720and0.7610Expand to61.8%by0.7505。
       
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7950 - 0.8000 – 0.8050 – 0.8230
support 0.7780 - 0.7720 -0.7610 – 0.7505


Focus:
8month30day(three): Australia7Monthly building permit rate‧澳洲第二季建筑完工额季率
8month31day(four): Australia7monthHIA新屋销售月率‧澳洲第二季资本支出季率‧前建筑资本支出季率‧厂房/机械设备资本支出‧Australia7月民间部门信贷月率‧房屋信贷月率
9month1day(five): Australia8monthAIGManufacturing Index


NZD New Zealand dollars - 政府下调经济展望，打压纽元至两个月低位

纽元周五在两个月低点附近徘徊，周线料创4月底以来最差表现。纽元兑美元周四触及6month22The lowest level since the beginning of the day0.7192。纽元本周受挫，因新西兰政府下调该国当前和下一财年经济成长预估。本周纽元料下跌逾2%，为连续第四周录得周线跌幅。市场人士如今希望从怀俄明州杰克森霍尔(JacksonHole)会议中获得货币政策线索。美联储主席耶伦和欧洲央行总裁德拉吉将在今日稍晚发表演说。

纽元兑美元方面，近日走势处于低位横盘，目前关键预估为250Balance moving average0.7140To the extent that0.70关口，下延较大支撑在0.68。倘若以五月至今的累积升幅计算，50%的回吐水平会看至0.7190Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then in the0.71。另一方面，上方阻力见于50Balance moving average0.7330，较瞩目为100Monthly average line0.7570Since last year9月触碰以来，汇价就一直没能冲破此技术指标，因此，若可突破此区，纽元兑美元才可望摆脱势，上延目标则会看至0.7745Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7330 - 0.7570 -0.7745
support 0.7140 – 0.7000 - 0.6800/40


Focus:
8month30day(three): New Zealand7Monthly building permit rate
8month31day(four): New Zealand8monthNBNZ商业展望指数‧NBNZBusiness Activity Index
9month1day(five)：新西兰第二季贸易条件季率



CAD Cad - 加元再探1.24resistance

美元兑加元方面，过去两个月汇价一路下滑，直至七月底似乎在1.24止住了跌势，至上周二高见至1.2778；但此后又复跌势，当前回见至1.26水平附近。上方阻力将回看50Balance moving average1.2820Horizontal. Calculated by the golden ratio,38.2%的反弹幅度见于1.2940Horizontal, extended to50%Then it is1.31。反之，近日正处于调整，若果进一步下破1.24这个关键水平，预料延伸跌幅可会看至1.2175To the extent that1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916。

      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2720 - 1.2940
support 1.2400* – 1.2175 – 1.2000


Focus:   
8month29day(two): Canada7月工业产品价格‧原材料价格
8month30day(three)：加拿大第二季流动帐平衡
8month31day(four): Canada Season 2GDPSeasonal rate‧GDPMonth on month annual rate‧Canada6monthGDPMonthly rate
9month1day(five): Canada8monthMarkimanufacturingPMI


Related news
Canada6月批发贸易较前月下滑0.5%


QRCode      http://app.mw801.com

Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)