Crossing the Sea 2017year8month22day

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

8

month

22

day

Focus this week:
8month22day(Tuesday)
U.S.A6monthFHFA房屋价格

8month23day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8monthMarkit PMIinitial value
U.S.A7Monthly sales of new houses

8month24day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A7Monthly Housing Sales
U.S.A8月堪萨斯联储制造业指数

8month25day(Friday)
U.S.A7Monthly rate of durable goods orders



Today's important economic data:
17：00 Germany8monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index‧Predict positive15.0‧Front value positive17.5
17：00 Germany8monthZEWCurrent situation index‧Predict positive85.5‧Front value positive86.4
18：00 britain8Monthly Industrial Alliance(CBI)Total industrial order difference‧Front value positive10
20：30 Canada6Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.6%
20：30 Canada6Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars‧Forecast remains unchanged‧Previous value-0.1%
21：00 U.S.A6Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)Monthly rate of housing prices‧Previous value+0.4%
21：00 U.S.A6Federal Housing Finance Bureau(FHFA)Annual rate of housing prices‧Previous value+6.9%
22：00 U.S.A8Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index‧Front value positive14



8month21day
LondongoldMorning order price:1287.60
London gold afternoon fixing price:1292.90


Today's Introduction
上周市场受到特朗普政府人事方面辞职潮、恐袭事件、朝鲜局势紧张升级影响，避险货币普遍扬升；而美元则呈反弹乏力，徘徊在93区间附近，仍然接近于8month2Daily low92.55。本周将迎来一年一度的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)货币政策研讨会，美联储主席耶伦和欧洲央行行长德拉吉分别在周五和周六的公开讲话料会引起市场重点关注。耶伦议题为金融稳定，这次演讲的性质，意味着她有可能解释其对缩表速度的看法，什么状况可能导致她改变预设线路，以及在通胀低迷情况下她倾向于多大程度推迟加息。若有关于其他央行政策正常化可能如何改变美联储计划的内容，也将给人以启发。耶伦今年6月时被直接问及金融环境放松是否可能支持加快升息时，她指出金融市场状况只是美联储制定政策时所考察诸多信息中的一个方面。美联储官员的最新预测显示，决策者预计今年再升息一次，可能在12月，与此同时开始缩减资产负债表。另外，欧洲央行行长德拉吉也将在会上讲话，上周有报导称，欧洲央行总裁德拉吉不会在本周的杰克森霍尔会议上传递新的政策讯息，减弱了欧洲央行将开始缩减刺激举措的预期。这可能是他在欧洲央行9month7日会议前的最后一次公开讲话，或许他将继续保持一贯谨慎鸽派的看法，但仍需注意关于欧元币值飙升带来的影响，全球和欧元区经济的判断相关意见，需要重点关注。



XAU London Gold - 杰克森霍尔会议之前，谨慎气氛占据上风

金价周二回跌，在本周稍后的杰克森霍尔年度央行官员会议前，投资者保持谨慎。美国和韩国周一进行规划已久的联合军事演习，与北韩间的紧张情势升高；北韩称这场演习是迈向核冲突的鲁莽举动。避险情绪推动金价周一曾升上1290美元上方。另外，美国联邦储备理事会(FED)周一发布的一项调查显示，美国打工者认为，未来薪资增长的希望不大，且尽管他们在更积极的寻找新工作，但预计拿到的录用通知书会减少。

As shown in the chart trend, this year6month6日高位见于1296，再上一个高位见于4month17Of1295.42，故此，双底颈线位置1296这水平将颇为关键，若本周可企稳于颈线之上，金价可望再而冲高。预计向上延伸阻力可至1301and1315水平，进一步则会参考去年11Monthly high1337.40美元。下方支持料为1275and1262To the next level50The current position of the balance moving average1252USD.

London Gold8month22day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1275 – 1301
Resistance level:1315 – 1335
Support bit:1262 – 1252

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
7month24Day - 809.62ton
7month25Day - 800.45ton
7month26Day - 795.42ton
7month27Day - 791.88ton
7month28Day - 791.88ton
7month31Day - 791.88ton
8month1Day - 791.88ton
8month2Day - 791.88ton
8month3Day - 791.88ton
8month4Day - 787.14ton
8month7Day - 786.87ton
8month8Day - 786.87ton
8month9Day - 786.87ton
8month10Day - 786.87ton
8month11Day - 786.87ton
8month14Day - 791.01ton
8month15Day - 791.01ton
8month16Day - 795.44ton
8month17Day - 795.44ton
8month18Day - 799.29ton
8month21Day - 799.29ton

8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year7month7day)

Global:33465.1 (+39.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton (-3.2ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1715.8ton (+28.5ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价再访上阻

伦敦白银方面，在连续三日17.25水平附近遇阻后，经过上周初之调整，至上周五银价一度闯过此区；倘若后市终可稳企此区上方，料银价可进一步伸延近月的升势，较大阻力将看至17.70and18.40美元。下方支持预估在上升趋向线位置16.75美元，较大支持为16.20and15.70USD.

London Silver8month22day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.60 – 17.30
Resistance level:17.70 – 18.40
Support bit:16.20 – 15.70

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month1Day - 10629.07ton
8month2Day - 10592.33ton
8month3Day - 10592.33ton
8month4Day - 10562.93ton
8month7Day - 10562.93ton
8month8Day - 10530.59ton
8month9Day - 10530.59ton
8month10Day - 10445.33ton
8month11Day - 10445.33ton
8month14Day - 10445.33ton
8month15Day - 10445.33ton
8month16Day - 10445.33ton
8month17Day - 10401.24ton
8month18Day - 10401.24ton
8month21Day - 10401.24ton



EUR euro - 欧洲央行担心市场动荡及欧元过度升值

美元兑一篮子货币周二持稳，市场焦点放在本周杰克森霍尔全球央行年度会议，寻求进一步了解货币政策前景。近期市场关注美国联邦储备理事会(FED)主席耶伦的讲话，她将于周五在怀俄明州杰克森霍尔(Jackson Hole)举行的年度央行会议上发表讲话。由于投资者对特朗普政府实施经济政策的能力再度感到担忧，美元最近几日受阻。在美国通胀疲弱之际，对于美联储今年再度升息前景的持续怀疑，亦打压美元。另外，上周有报导称，欧洲央行总裁德拉吉不会在本周的杰克森霍尔会议上传递新的政策讯息，减弱了欧洲央行将开始缩减刺激举措的预期。

技术走势而言，欧元兑美元过去两周大致处于1.17to1.19进行横盘，并交迭于短期平均线，RSI及随机指数处于反复，均表现着汇价之争持待变局面。下方底部1.1720Also25天平均线所在，倘若跌破此区，下延支持则看至1.16Horizontal. Calculated by the golden ratio,50%and61.8%的调整水平将见于1.1510and1.1415。另一边厢，若果可向上突破区间顶部，下一个焦点则会是1.20关口，上一次持于此关口上方要追溯至2015year1月，若欧元可重回此区上方，技术面将巩固欧元的进一步强势。预估延伸较大阻力则在250Weekly moving average1.2050and1.2170Horizontal.

Focus:
8month22day(two): Germany8monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index‧ZEWCurrent situation index
8month23day(three): France8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
Germany8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧
eurozone8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
8month24day(four): France8Monthly Business Prosperity Index
8month25day(five): Germany Season 2GDP细节‧France8Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧Germany8monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index

Related news
德国央行月报称今年经济成长或超过预期

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1900 – 1.2000 – 1.2060 – 1.2170
support 1.1700* – 1.1600 – 1.1510 – 1.1415



JPY yen - 避险情绪支撑日圆

美元周一下挫，因朝鲜地缘政治局势紧张，投资者等待本周在杰克森霍尔举行的年度央行会议，全球主要央行行长可能会对未来政策行动做出暗示。美元兑避险日圆连续第四日下跌，日圆通常在市场紧张时受到追捧。韩国和美国军队针对朝鲜的武器计划，周一开始进行计算器模拟的军事演习，这一举动激怒了朝鲜。朝鲜谴责军演是为核战争做准备。

美元兑日圆走势，图表所见，双顶型态的两个顶部分别为5month11Of114.36and7month11Of114.49，颈线位置即6month14day108.81，视为一个关键水平，至今重新回落并大有机会再挑战颈线支撑，倘若成功破位，下试目标预估可至108To the extent that107.20，关键直指105关口。上方阻力参考25The current position of the balance moving average110.65as well as112.20水平，较大阻力则留意114.50Horizontal.

Focus:
8month21day(one): Japan8Monthly Reuters Short term Manufacturing Prosperity Index
8month23day(three): Japan8Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI
8month24day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
8month25day(five): Japan7Monthly National CoreCPIthe annual rate‧Nationwide as a wholeCPIthe annual rate‧Japan8Tokyo Regional CoreCPIthe annual rate‧Tokyo region as a wholeCPIthe annual rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 110.65 – 112.20 – 114.50*
support 108.80** – 108.00 – 107.20



GBP pound - 短线弱势依然

英镑兑普遍走软的美元周一微升，但兑欧元进一步下跌，因对英国经济成长和退欧谈判进展的疑虑持续令英镑承压。英国公布了另外两份退欧谈判策略立场文件，大臣们设法不让人觉得磋商进展缓慢且今年稍晚可能会推迟。外界质疑政府退欧谈判的处理情况，加上本月对英国央行明年升息的预期破灭，已推低英镑兑美元至1.30以下，兑欧元则来到0.90GBP.

英镑兑美元走势，图表所见，英镑兑美元上周显著跌破上升趋向线，并横盘一周多时间后，于上周二更跌破50天平均线，估计后市若再而跌破7月险守着的1.28关口，料英镑将出现较具规模的调整。同时，MACD已初步跌破讯号线，亦反映着汇价作进一步下跌的机会较大。预计向下延伸支持料为250Balance moving average1.2640水平。另一方面，阻力可参考1.30and25Balance moving average1.3050水平，下一级料为1.3160。

Focus:
8month21day(one): UK7monthPSNB&#8231SNCR
8month24day(four)：英国第二季GDP修订‧商业投资初值‧britain7monthUK FINANCENumber of approved mortgage loans‧britain8monthCBIRetail sales difference

Related news
英国希望退欧后与欧盟订立临时性关税协议以及新的贸易协议  

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3000 – 1.3040 – 1.3160
support 1.2800 – 1.2640



CHF Swiss franc - 走低，因风险偏好回升

技术图表所见，若果以美元兑瑞郎近一轮的累计涨幅计算，50%and61.8%的回调水平将为0.9605and0.9565，较大支持则可会看至0.9430及以至参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251。至于上方阻力则预估为100Balance moving average0.9780and250Balance moving average0.99水平，关键指向1.00Gateway.

Related news
Switzerland7The monthly trade surplus is35.11Billion Swiss francs

Focus:
8month24day(four)：瑞士第二季工业订单年率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9780 – 0.9990* – 1.0000**
support 0.9605 – 0.9565 – 0.9430 – 0.9251



AUD AUD - 持稳，关注杰克森霍尔全球央行年会

澳元周二窄幅徘徊，市场人士对朝鲜半岛紧张局势保持警惕，而且在本周稍晚的杰克森霍尔全球央行年会召开前按兵不动，美联储主席耶伦和欧洲央行总裁德拉吉将在会上发表讲话。。澳元在7月底升至两年高点0.8066美元，但随后走势迟滞，在0.78-0.7950区间交投。

澳元兑美元走势，自2016年第三季至今，澳元走势勾划出一组头肩底形态，颈线位置在0.7780，只要汇价持稳于此区上方，澳元料仍可保持上涨势头，而上周二低位则仅仅居于此区之上的0.7808。若然以右肩的深度450点计算，向上延伸目标可看至0.8230；以头形的幅度620Point calculation, mid-term goals will point towards0.84Horizontal. As for the current resistance in close proximity, attention can be paid to it0.80Pass, the next level is visible50Monthly average line0.8050。另一边厢，以去年十二月低位0.7160起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为0.7720and0.7610Expand to61.8%by0.7505。

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7890 – 0.8000 – 0.8050 – 0.8230
support 0.7780 – 0.7720 – 0.7610



NZD New Zealand dollars - 美元反弹乏力，商品货币喘稳

纽元兑美元方面，近日走势处于低位横盘，下方支持参考上周低位于0.7224，需防范若下破此区，纽元或会延续月初以来之跌势，关键则预估为250Balance moving average0.7140To the extent that0.70Gateway. If calculated based on the cumulative increase since May, 50%的回吐水平会看至0.7190Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then in the0.71. On the other hand, the resistance above focuses on100Monthly average line0.7570Since last year9月触碰以来，汇价就一直没能冲破此技术指标，因此，若可突破此区，纽元兑美元才可望摆脱势，上延目标则会看至0.7745and0.78Horizontal.

Focus:
8month24day(four): New Zealand7Monthly imports‧Export‧trade balance‧by7月的一年贸易平衡

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500 – 0.7550 – 0.7745
support 0.7130 – 0.7000 – 0.6800/40



CAD Cad - 止跌回稳

美元兑加元方面，过去两个月汇价一路下滑，直至七月底似乎在1.24止住了跌势，至上周二高见至1.2778；但此后又复跌势，当前回见至1.26水平附近。上方阻力将回看50Balance moving average1.2820Horizontal. Calculated by the golden ratio,38.2%的反弹幅度见于1.2940Horizontal, extended to50%Then it is1.31。反之，近日正处于调整，若果进一步下破1.24这个关键水平，预料延伸跌幅可会看至1.2175To the extent that1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916。

Focus:
8month22day(two): Canada6Monthly retail sales rate‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles

Related news
Canada6月批发贸易较前月下滑0.5%        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2720 – 1.2940
support 1.2400* – 1.2175 – 1.2000


QR Code      http://app.mw801.com

Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)