Mobil Finance: Gold Price Breaks Through1270The upward trend is soaring This week, non farm dramas will be staged again

International SpotgoldMonday(7month31day)In the early trading session in Asia, the previous gains were held and hovered around1270dollar/Near ounce, due to the further escalation of the situation in North Korea. Last Friday, speculation of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve cooled down due to lower than expected US inflation data. In addition, North Korea's late night launch of ballistic missiles triggered an increase in safe haven buying, boosting gold prices to break through1270The US dollar level has reached1271.10The six week high of the US dollar. This week, the market will usher in a series of heavyweight economic data, with the most eye-catching undoubtedly being the United States7If the data is not good again, the gold price is expected to have sustained upward momentum.


North Korea Last Friday(7month28day)Launching a missile during a rare late night test is also the country's second intercontinental missile test in a month. This provocative behavior has intensified the pressure on the United States and China, and it is necessary to find ways to curb Kim Jong un's nuclear ambitions.


Trump has stated that all options, including military means, can be used to counter North Korea's threat. stay7month4After Japan's missile launch, Trump said he is considering using some "very harsh measures" to retaliate against North Korea.


On the other hand, the US economic data released last Friday showed poor performance, with inflation further moving away from the Federal Reserve2%Goal. The Federal Reserve's Favorite Inflation Indicator--Core without food and energy in the second quarterPCEPrice index annual discount rate increase0.9%, equalize2010The lowest level since the beginning of the year.


Meanwhile, the latest data from the US Department of Labor shows that the quarterly rate of labor employment costs in the US only increased in the second quarter0.5%, not only lower than the previous value0.8%And also set a new record2015Since the second quarter of this year, it has reached a new low.


German Commercial Bank(Commerzbank)analystCarsten Fritsch"The data shows a significant decline in annual inflation rates across the board, and there is no urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates," he said
Affected by poor US economic data and political uncertainty, the US dollar index fell under pressure last Friday, and global stock markets also weakened. And spot gold further rose0.8%Touching in the disc6month14The highest in recent days1270.19The US dollar has risen continuously for the third week. The decline of the US dollar makes gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.


　　State Street Global AdvisorsHead of Gold StrategyGeorge Milling-StanleyHe also believes that gold prices will rise. Unless anything strange happens, the price of gold will further rise10to30I won't be surprised by the US dollar. "


Head of Metal Research at Societe GeneraleRobin BharIt is believed that "gold prices may continue to consolidate this week, consolidating recent gains."


He stated that due to the low trading volume in the summer, there is not much upward or downward momentum. It also added that resistance will be located next week1260Near the US dollar, and the downward direction will require attention1240USD.
However,Julius BaerAnalyst forCarsten MenkeHe stated that the upward trend of gold prices is fragile, as he expects gold prices to fall back to1,200USD.


In addition, Citigroup(Citigroup)It is also pointed out that gold prices will tend to decline for the remainder of this year. The tightening policy of the Federal Reserve should be:2017The "important theme" of the second half of the year will lead to a decline in gold prices before the end of the year1200dollar/ounce.


The Citigroup report shows that "although the escalating global geopolitical tensions may continue to drive up investors' demand for safe haven, thereby pushing up gold prices, we are confident that gold prices can remain close to [insert price range] in the context of the Federal Reserve's tightening policy."1300dollar/We are skeptical about the ounce's peak so far this year


In terms of physical demand, the China Gold Association announced last Friday that the consumption of gold bars in China increased in the first half of the year158.4Tons, overall gold consumption growth is approaching10%, to545.2Tons (including sales of gold jewelry)330.8Tons, growth in industrial demand and other uses9%


In addition, Hong Kong data and Swiss customs data also show an increase in gold exports to China. Kaitou Macro AnalystSimona GambariniIn Thursday's report, it was stated that the growth in China's imports is more driven by rebuilding inventory factors rather than end-user demand


American goodsfuturesTrading Committee(CFTC)Last Friday(7month28day)The weekly report released shows that as of7month25During the current week, hedge funds and fund managers significantly increased their holdingsCOMEXGold net long position, for the second consecutive week. The net long position climbed to a four week high. The net position of silver has turned to net long, after being in a net short position for two consecutive weeks.


However, as of last Thursday, global goldETFPositions have decreased for five consecutive days, with a cumulative decrease over the past four weeks2.5%. Meanwhile, the world's largest goldETF?SPDR Gold TrustOur position has not increased in a single day for over a month.


United States7Moon NonNonNong Appears How will the gold price go this week?


Last Friday in the United StatesGDPThe report has dealt another blow to the US dollar, and the market is expected to have another busy week this week,ADP、ISMBoth heavyweight data from non-agricultural and other sectors will be released, especially the non-agricultural report. If the performance is poor, gold prices may further climb.


This Friday in the United States(8month4day)To be announced7The monthly employment report will be presented by analysts and the Federal Reserve(FED)Important data of concern; The next time the Federal Reserve will9month19-20Convene a meeting on the day.


Previously, the United States6The monthly growth rate of non-agricultural employment exceeded expectations, and it is expected that7The month will slow down, but it will still remain at a strong level, indicating strong performance in the labor market, which is expected to continue the Federal Reserve's move towards the third rate hike of the year. According to foreign media surveys,7Monthly non farm employment is expected to only increase18Ten thousand, and previously6Monthly increase22.2Ten thousand.


However, an average salary increase may be more important. According to a Reuters survey, the average monthly salary rate has increased0.3%, creating2The largest increase since the beginning of the month, and the previous few months' gains have been between0.1%-0.2%。


　　BKasset management(BK Asset Management)foreign exchangeStrategy Director and General ManagerKathy LienLast Friday, I wrote an article stating that as long as job growth exceeds17Ten thousand, the monthly salary rate growth rate has reached0.3%Even higher - and the unemployment rate from4.4%Slide down to4.3%The US dollar will soar, which is unfavorable for gold prices. However, if the salary growth rate is only0.2%Even lower, while the unemployment rate remains stable, even if job growth reaches20"Ten thousand may still not be enough to save the dollar."


In addition to the non-farm employment report,ADPPrivate sector employment report, completed housing contract salesIMSManufacturing Index andIMFThe non manufacturing index will also be released this week. All of these data will affect market expectations for Friday's non-farm report.


　　CMC MarketsChief Market StrategistColin CieszynskiIt means that "non-agricultural employment,..."ADPThe employment and manufacturing purchasing managers' index may have an impact on the US dollar, especially if it can change the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again


In terms of non-farm employment, traders will closely monitor whether the numbers will shift from6Of the month22.2Ten thousand job positions have cooled down.Walsh TradingBusiness Hedging DirectorSean LuskIf so, the current rise in gold may be supported. "However, if employment growth unexpectedly increases again, gold may easily backfire."


Global Commodity Strategy Director at Daoming SecuritiesBart MelekOverall, if the data unexpectedly disappoints and makes the market believe that the Federal Reserve's tightening pace may be delayed, then gold is expected to climb. In this case, the price of gold may rise to1280USD.


In other countries, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, and Governor Carney will hold a press conference afterwards.


"Despite the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, gold has still performed well this year. This is because other central banks such as the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England are still easing."London Capital GroupSenior Market AnalystJasper Lawlerexpress.


If we can obtain the Bank of England's withdrawalQESome news about factors will be bearish for gold. But they may express as much fear as possible about the impact of Brexit, which means they will not be in a hurry to end itQE"This is good for gold,"LawlerExplain.