Mobil Finance: "Super Week" Storm Attacks! Financial markets may face "bloody storms"

This week, the financial market will usher in a truly "super week". In terms of economic data, non farm officials are leading the way with numerous heavyweight economic data, while the central bank, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce interest rate decisions, and the Bank of England's decision on that day is known as "Super Thursday". Under the bombardment of such multiple events, the financial market is bound to encounter a bloody storm this week.


According to a recent Reuters article, the economic data in the coming week will be unusually lively, including in many countriesPMIThe release of trade balance, employment reports, and retail sales data, with the highlight being the US non-farm payroll report and the Federal Reserve's preference for itPCEPrice index. In terms of important economic events, the Reserve of Australia(RBA)Interest rate resolutions and quarterly statements, as well as the Bank of England(BOE)Interest rate resolution. At a time when major central banks are lending to reduce monetary stimulus, the central bank's stance is particularly noteworthy.


　Non agricultural sector brings heavyweight data to the stage


Last Friday in the United StatesGDPThe report has dealt another blow to the US dollar, and the market is expected to have another busy week this week,ADP、ISMHeavyweight data such as non farm payroll will be released, especially the non farm payroll report. If the performance is poor, hopes of a rebound in the US dollar may be shattered.


The data released by the United States last Friday showed that the annual growth rate of the US economy in the second quarter was2.6%, consistent with analyst estimates surveyed by Reuters, but the annual economic growth rate for the second quarter has been revised down to1.2%. In addition, the second quarter labor cost increase in the United States was less than expected, which also put pressure on the US dollar.


　　Commonwealth Foreign ExchangeChief Market AnalystOmer Esiner"The data is not very helpful for discussing the future prospects of monetary policy, so the market's momentum is clearly unfavorable for the US dollar and favorable for the euro," he said


The United States will announce on Friday7The monthly employment report will be presented to analysts and the Federal Reserve(FED)Important data of concern; The next time the Federal Reserve will9month19-20Convene a meeting on the day.


United States6The monthly growth rate of non-agricultural employment exceeded expectations, and it is expected that7The month will slow down, but it will still remain at a strong level, indicating strong performance in the labor market, which is expected to continue the Federal Reserve's move towards the third rate hike of the year.


According to foreign media surveys,7Monthly non farm employment is expected to only increase18Ten thousand, and previously6Monthly increase22.2Ten thousand.


However, an average salary increase may be more important. According to a Reuters survey, the average monthly salary rate has increased0.3%, creating2The largest increase since the beginning of the month, and the previous few months' gains have been between0.1%-0.2%。


　　BKasset management(BK Asset Management)foreign exchangeStrategy Director and General ManagerKathy LienLast Friday, I wrote an article stating that the United StatesGDPThe report "sealed" the fate of the US dollar, and weaker than expected economic growth data caused the US dollar to plummet. The US dollar fell against all major currencies except the Swiss franc last week.


Last week, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement ignited a decline in the US dollar. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged last Wednesday, saying it expected to begin to reduce its huge holdings of treasury bond bonds "in a relatively short term". But the Federal Reserve also pointed out that both overall and core inflation have decreased, and removed the qualifier "recent", which may suggest that concerns about slowing inflation may not be temporary.


Market participants smelled the softening of the Federal Reserve's stance on inflation from this policy statement, and the US dollar index immediately fell to13The low point for months.


　　LienIt is pointed out that consumer demand, inflation, and wage growth have all shown weakness, and if Friday's non farm report performs poorly, the US dollar will lose all hope.


　　LienWrite: "As long as the growth rate of employment exceeds..."17Ten thousand, the monthly salary rate growth rate has reached0.3%Even higher - and the unemployment rate from4.4%Slide down to4.3%The US dollar will soar. However, if the salary growth rate is only0.2%Even lower, while the unemployment rate remains stable, even if job growth reaches20"Ten thousand may still not be enough to save the dollar."


American goodsfuturesTrading Committee(CFTC)The data released last Friday showed that due to political uncertainty and a decrease in expectations of the Federal Reserve accelerating monetary policy tightening, speculators have increased their net short positions in the US dollar over the past week.


　　CFTCData display, as of7month25During the current week, the net short position in the US dollar increased39.2USD100mn Net empty warehouse of the previous week19.1Billion US dollars, marking the first time in over a year that there has been a net short position.


In addition to the non-farm employment report,ADPPrivate sector employment report, completed housing contract salesIMSManufacturing Index andIMFThe non manufacturing index will also be released this week. All of these data will affect market expectations for Friday's non-farm report.


The Bank of England's Super Thursday is Coming


Bank of England(BOE)President Carney(Mark Carney)stay6Yue once hinted that the central bank may be approaching a rate hike. But economists are skeptical about this. According to economists, Carney may lower his economic growth forecast for the next two years when submitting his latest forecast this week. The inflation outlook is expected to remain unchanged.


In addition to losing momentum for economic growth, this year's salary increase has also disappointed people, thus suppressing speculation among decision-makers that interest rates will soon be raised.


According to Bloomberg, economists predict that the Bank of England will be on Thursday(8month3day)Maintain interest rates at the meeting0.25%At a record low level, while maintaining the same scale of quantitative easing.


In addition to interest rate resolutions, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England(MPC)Expectations will also be updated in the quarterly inflation report, and Carney will hold a press conference to explain the central bank's decision. The financial market will also welcome "Super Thursday" at that time.


In the6At the policy meeting in the month, Bank of England policymakers surprised investors, with three out of eight voting committee members in favor of raising interest rates. But since then, the UK Office for National Statistics has(Office for National Statistics)It indicates that the economy has experienced a "significant slowdown", while inflation has slipped from recent highs.


According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts expect the Bank of England to2019Interest rates will remain unchanged until mid year. Investors believe that the probability of the Bank of England raising interest rates this year is lower than40%And a month ago, this probability was close to60%。


In addition, those surveyed by Bloomberg19Among famous economists, there are18It is expected that the Bank of England will cut its growth forecast for this year this week, while most interviewed economists expect the central bank to lower its economic growth forecast for next year.


However, most interviewed economists believe that the Bank of England will maintain its inflation expectations for the next two years. The Bank of England currently predicts that the UK economy is expected to grow separately this year and next1.9%and1.7%Inflation materials are:2.8%and2.4%。


According to Citigroup(Citigroup Inc.)Analysts say that the UK economy is too fragile to cope with monetary policy tightening, and more details about the UK's exit from the EU need to be understood before decision-makers take action.


Citibank EconomistChristian SchulzandAnn O’KellyIn a report released on Friday, it was written: "Even a small interest rate hike could have an impact on the currently fragile financial situation and economy. Until the agreement on Brexit becomes clearer,..."(This is in the2019year3It's unlikely before the month)The Bank of England may avoid raising interest rates


Dansk Bank(Danske Bank)Last Friday, a report was released stating that the Bank of England will convene this week8At the monthly monetary policy meeting, it is expected that the central bank will6-2The voting result supports maintaining interest rates unchanged. The voting result from the last meeting was5-3。


The bank pointed out that this is mainly due to Forbes(Kristin Forbes)A well-known "hawkish" voting committee member has left the committee, and Dansk believes that new members will not vote against Carney at the first meeting. Despite the Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Haldane(Andy Haldane)In recent speeches, there was a tendency to raise interest rates, but the bank believes that8It's too early for him to raise interest rates at the monthly meeting.


Danske Bank predicts that the Bank of England8The monthly meeting will be loweredGDPGrowth estimate to indicate2017So far this year has been overly optimistic, and it is expected that the UK economy will maintain its current level of growth in the coming quarters.
　　
The bank claims, "If we are correct, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England(MPC)Will be on8At the monthly meeting6-2Voting to maintain interest rates unchanged may be interpreted as a moderate dovish signal and could trigger the euro/GBP up retest0.90Horizontal. "


　The decision of the Federal Reserve of Australia is approaching Goldman Sachs suggests selling off the Australian dollar


Reserve Bank of Australia(RBA)The interest rate decision will be announced on Tuesday, and although it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will remain silent, the post meeting statement will receive high attention.
According to a Reuters survey, the Federal Reserve of Australia is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at a record low level at its monthly policy meeting on Tuesday1.5%No change. Interviewed47Among the analysts46It is expected that the Federal Reserve of Australia will remain silent.


The Federal Reserve of Australia lowered interest rates twice last year and has since maintained its policy unchanged. The Federal Reserve needs to weigh the risks between stimulating Australian housing lending and weak inflation.
In addition, most interviewed analysts believe that the Federal Reserve of Australia will maintain stable interest rates until2018Mid year.37Among the respondents, there are24People expect the policy to be implemented next year12Tightening before the month, there are also2People expect to relax.


Although Australian Federal Reserve officials have hinted that they are concerned about interest rates at1.5%Satisfied with the record low point, but swap traders expect the Reserve of Australia next year5The probability of raising interest rates before the month approaches50%。


However, RBA Chairman Lowe(Philip Lowe)Last Wednesday, in a speech, it was pointed out that the Federal Reserve of Australia does not need to follow the footsteps of other major central banks to tighten policies.


Lowe pointed out that the Federal Reserve of Australia is happy to see a recent recovery in the job market, but weak salary growth and high household debt indicate that policy interest rates will remain low for a longer period of time.


Lowe said that the stable unemployment rate has "enabled us to remain patient" and is pleased to see continuous improvement in employment nationwide. However, the situation of insufficient employment has worsened and employment security has become a problem faced by many people.


According to Bloomberg's report last Friday, Goldman Sachs Asset Management(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)It is expected that the rebound trend of the Australian dollar has reached its peak and is jumping to the next level2After the high point of the year, Goldman Sachs Asset Management chose to sell the Australian dollar because it believed that there were unrealistic strong expectations from the outside world for the Reserve's interest rate hike.


Head of Asia Pacific Fixed Income at Goldman Sachs Asset ManagementPhilip MoffittIt is pointed out that with the Australian Federal Reserve(RBA)The institution is bearish on the Australian dollar at its meeting next Tuesday, as the previous rebound has made the Australian dollar more expensive compared to the currencies of its trading partners. Goldman Sachs Asset Management manages over1A trillion dollar asset.


　　MoffittRepresented in Australian dollars/The US dollar skyrocketed to0.80Above, this reduces the likelihood of the Reserve Bank of Australia using hawkish language, as a strong Australian dollar could harm economic growth and lower inflation than the Reserve Bank of Australia2%-3%The bottom level of the target interval.


Monday Beijing Time08:05AUD/USD report0.7974, touched once last Thursday0.8066, for2015year5The highest since the beginning of the month.


　　MoffittIt is believed that the recent significant strength of the Australian dollar is mainly attributed to the weakness of the US dollar. In addition, the market mistakenly expects that the Federal Reserve of Australia may soon begin a rate hike cycle. The Reserve Bank of Australia may indicate at its meeting on Tuesday that it does not need to follow the pace of other central banks to start tightening policies.


He said, "If the Australian dollar/USD in0.80Nearby, this will be an important topic for discussion. We expect that there will be no change in interest rates until at least the second half of next year


　　MoffittIt is pointed out that if the Australian dollar further rises, it may even lead to the Federal Reserve of Australia shifting towards a dovish stance. He said, "If the Australian dollar really rises significantly, rate cuts will return to the discussion options, which is something the Federal Reserve of Australia does not want to do. But if there are no other ways to control currency appreciation, they may be forced to at least consider it."