Xiao Yufan:7.29黄金原油本周暴涨趋势独家解析附空单解套

　　goldMessage surface parsing:
　　
Friday Beijing Time（7month28Day)20:30公布的美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率初值为2.6%，与预期持平，前值修正为1.2%；美国第二季度实际个人消费支出季率初值为2.8%，也与预期持平，前值为1.1%；美国第二季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率初值为1.5%Lower than expected and previous values1.7%。数据公布后，美元短线下跌，金银小幅走高。
　　
　　周五黄金的上涨还得到了地缘政治震荡的支撑。日本媒体报道称，朝鲜又发射了一枚导弹，日本内阁官房长官菅义伟表示朝鲜导弹是朝着日本海方向发射的，落入了日本专属经济区。这是继美国对俄罗斯、朝鲜、伊朗加大制裁力度后的最新地缘政治动向。就是这一则有关朝鲜发射疑似导弹飞行物的消息令美元多头雪上加霜，现货黄金更是借势击穿1270The US dollar barrier.
　　
Gold trend analysis:
　　
　　今年以来黄金已经有过两次冲击1300The opportunity to pass the level, once in a while4In mid month, once at6At the beginning of the month, both were before and after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, indicating that the Fed had a huge impact on the trend of gold. In the first half of this year, the Fed also completed two interest rate hikes, which may have led to two shocks1300The root cause of failure, and the most likely reason for raising interest rates in the second half of the year now is12Month, and9The monthly balance sheet also faces this huge challenge, and without the obstacle of interest rate hikes, the gold price has broken through this time1260The US dollar seems to have already been seen1300的终点，在这最后一段冲刺道路上，基本已经没有什么阻碍。从长线来看，肖宇梵认为这一次多头行情，或许就是最有可能冲破1300The timing of the big challenge.
　　
Gold Technology Analysis:

　　

　　从日线图看，黄金整体呈现VThe trend of type reversal,KThe overall trend of the line shows a bullish arrangement, and the upward trend has been continuing. According to the current trend, gold is expected to impact6Monthly high point1295On the front line, from the perspective of the Bollinger system, Bollinger operates with an open mouth,KThe line is running near the Bollinger track and has been received so far1270A brief suppression on the front line, with a slight correction of the decline;4Looking at the hourly chart, the moving average system shows a wave like rise,5Daily moving average10The daily moving average runs with a golden cross, and the Bollinger belt runs upwards with an open mouth, as shown in the attached figureMACDThe red kinetic energy column gradually increases in volume,KDJ金叉运行，技术指标呈阳性，多头趋势非常明显。再综合近期的市场基本面和美元走弱，都是利多黄金，所以后市黄金将进一步走高，下周黄金有望突破1280一线，从小时图上看，MA均线关口阻力较强有回落的迹象那么我下周一我们关注支撑1267支撑第二支撑在1262/60支撑附近。KDJ指标小时线三线出现向下交叉，那么小时线即将出现短期回落然后继续上冲。
　　
Gold empty order unwinding:
　　
　　1On1260-1265一线空单被套的朋友们不要着急，这个点位想要解决出来很快。有回落做空拉低均价，在1265Flatten empty orders. If there is no strength to fall back, chop them off1260的空，现价做多对锁。上方遇压力出掉盈利的多单，做空拉低1265The average price of [insert price], followed by [insert price]70一线小损出局，如果行情给力，你的单子还有盈利结余。
　　
　　2、1255一线的空单，我认为这类的空单被套是对行情把握出现了重大的失误，套的也比较深，下周开盘观察1270The stabilization of the situation,1270Stabilize, reduce positions and hold short positions, go long at the current price. If there is resistance above a long position, sell a long position and then go short1270First line liquidation, loss5-8个点，不要想着能够完全无损出局，你能出局就应该庆幸了！如果行情未能站稳1270，空单持有观察回落力度，回落到关键支撑位如1265减仓，然后锁单，等到行情下一步走势。这种情况比较复杂，操作难度也高，需要对行情有严谨的判断与把握，不建议投资者自己操作，以免越陷越深。
　　
　　crude oil涨势背后三大原因解析：
　　
　　1、沙特承诺削减原油出口
　　
　　在周一的OPECAnd nonOPEC联合监督委员会会议上，沙特承诺削减原油出口为油价带来提振。沙特能源和工业大臣哈立德·法利赫在俄罗斯圣彼得堡会晤了其他产油国官员之后对记者表示，这个OPEC最大产油国8月份的原油出口量将限制在66010000 barrels/天，比一年之前少100Ten thousand barrels.
　　
　　2、美国石油库存下降
　　
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)Wednesday(7month26day)According to published data, as of7month21Day and WeekEIADecline in crude oil inventory720.8万桶，连续四周录得下滑，预期下降312.5万桶，前值下降472.7Ten thousand barrels.
　　
　　3、美国产量下滑
　　
　　EIA周三公布的报告称，上周美国国内原油产量减少1.910000 barrels to94110000 barrels/日。石油钻井的下降也预示着美国原油产量的增速将放缓。油服贝克休斯将于北京时间周六凌晨1点公布该数据。油服贝克休斯上周五公布的数据显示，美国7month21日当周石油钻井机活跃口数减少1Mouth, to764口；美国7month21日当周天然气钻井数减少1Mouth, to186口；美国7month21日总钻井减少2Mouth, to952Mouth.
　　
Technical analysis of crude oil:

　　

　　日线上来看，油价运行布林带上轨，上涨趋势形成五连阳，布林带向外扩张，多头强劲，MA5/MA10均线形成金叉交投MA120上方。原油4小时收线阳柱，布林带三轨缩口区间压缩。而指标macdMaintain a high level of golden cross bonding and vibration, with agile indicatorsstoContinue to repair upwards. therefore4There is still a possibility of continuing to rise when one is young. At present, the upper rail is being suppressed49.7一线。支撑在均线MA5andMA10粘合位附近49.1-2；小时线目前蜡烛图运行至布林带外围，并且小时线经过了长时间的横盘整理，所以爆发的幅度比较大，而且目前小时线macd刚刚金叉打开，灵动指标sto勾头向上，因此短期原油并没有见顶。结合周线和日线的费波拉契回调线判断上方压制在50Near.
　　
　　个人投资者，凭一己之力面对市场，很容易出现当局者迷的情况。商场即战场，顺势而为，选择合适的合作伙伴变得异常重要。实力不够，伙伴来凑。老话说的好“三个臭皮匠赛过诸葛亮”。笔者肖宇梵是金融投资分析师，从事金融行业多年，擅长剖析国际形势以及金融市场行情走势。金融领域博大精深，每天行情波折不断，我所能做的就是用我多年的研究经验，给大家帮助。
　　
Text: Xiao Yufan  Author's Innovationxyf9996