兴业投资：越战越勇 原油续升创两个月高位

兴业投资：越战越勇 crude oil续升创两个月高位
2017year7month28day
Crude oil:
周四美国EIA原油库存下降的消息继续在油市发酵，以及OPEC核心成员国对稳定油市的十足信心促使两地原油进一步走高，美国原油逼近49关口，布伦特原油成功收复51Gateway. United StatesNYMEX 9Monthly crude oilfuturesrise0.48USD, increase0.88%Report49.14dollar/bucket;ICEBrent9Monthly crude oil futures increase1.4%Report51.60dollar/Bucket.
由于炼油厂产能上升，同时原油进口下降，上周美国EIA原油库存录得大幅下降。汽油和精炼油库存也都录得下滑。美国原油已经连续四周减少，以往同期，原油库存通常会增加。这给油价上行带来了强大的支撑。
本周初时，沙特在产油国会议上就表示计划在8月将原油出口限制在66010000 barrels/日，较去年同期下降约100万桶。科威特等OPEC成员国也都承诺削减出口。沙特的言论增强了市场对油市长期走向平衡的预期。
当然，市场还需要看到更多有关油市平衡的线索，比如美国页岩油生产商削减资本支出之后，市场可以看到美国原油产量下降，目前美国原油产量还处于90010000 barrels/日的高位之上。所以接下来美国石油钻井平台数的数据将成为投资者重点关注的对象。今日纽约时段就将公布该数据。
USD Index:
周四欧洲时段尾盘之前，美元指数持续震荡下跌至当日最低93.11。但之后美国公布的数据显示，美国6The monthly rate of durable goods orders has significantly increased6.5%Better than expected growth3.7%。强劲数据加上空头回补促使美元指数实现V型反转，快速收复稍早前的跌幅并扩大涨幅，最终录得大幅反弹，收盘报93.88。美元指数暂时获得喘息于低位反弹。但今日能否继续上行还要依赖于晚间的重要数据。日内重点关注美国GDP和通胀数据。预计美国二季度GDP年率初值将由1.4%Ascend to2.7%;corePCE物价指数年率初值将由2.0%Ascend to0.7%。
technical analysis
US crude oil:
Daily chart: Random indicators have severely overbought, beware of a decline in oil prices.
4Hour chart:49The resistance near the checkpoint is strong, and to open up the upward space, one needs to climb above that level.
Hour chart: Currently, the rebound momentum has significantly weakened and is at a high level48.97Nearby narrow oscillations.
Overview: There is a risk of a downturn. It is recommended to do so within the day49.25Short selling in nearby light positions, let's take a look first48.30Look again47.60Stop loss set at49.65upper.
Brent crude oil:
日图：连续多日反弹，随机指标已处于超卖区，有望反转信号，且上方200日均线可能会限制油价的上涨空间。
4Hour chart: In the short term, actions may not be able to support further increases in oil prices.
小时图：反弹动能大幅减弱，目前已出现下跌的信号，或有回落的需求。
Overview: Expected to decline. Suggest within the day51.65Short the first line of light positions, let's take a look first51.00Look again50.60Stop loss set at51.95upper.
Follow on Friday:
France/Germany7monthCPI/调和CPIMonthly rate/Annual rate initial value
France Q2GDPthe annual rate/Initial value of quarterly rate
France6Monthly consumer expenditure rate/the annual rate
Switzerland7monthKOFLeading indicators
eurozone7Monthly service industry/industry/Economics/enterprise/Consumer confidence index
Canada5monthGDPMonthly rate/the annual rate
美国第二季度PCEAnd the corePCESeasonal rate/Annual rate initial value
美国第二季度GDP平减指数和年率初值
U.S.A7Monthly University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index
Number of Baker Hughes oil drilling platforms in the United States