7.24Early Review: OPEC Meeting: Is Oil Price Reviving the Dead? White Palace Shakes, Gold Continues to Strengthen

　　crude oilLatest news


Due toOPECThis month's supply is expected to reach a new high for the year, and the decrease in drilling in the United States is difficult to change bearish sentiment. Oil prices plummeted about last Friday2.5%However, the continued decline of the US dollar still provides some support for oil prices.WTI 9Monthly crude oilfuturesLast Friday, it fell to the weekly drop point and closed down1.15USD or2.45%Report45.77dollar/Barrel, fell last week2.1%; Brent9Monthly crude oil futures closed lower1.24USD or2.52%Report48.06dollar/The barrel has dropped compared to the previous week1.7%about.


Petroleum consulting agencyPetro-LogisticsData shows that since the beginning of this monthOPECBreakthrough in daily average crude oil supply of member countries3300Ten thousand barrels, higher than the daily average level in the first half of this year60More than ten thousand barrels. This month's supply is expected to reach a new high for the year, with the increase mainly coming from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Nigeria, which is exempt from production cuts. Affected by this, international oil prices suddenly experienced a major dive. Friday Beijing Time18Hour30Divided around, Meiyou starts from47The US dollar plummeted all the way up, causing oil to break through49USD. In addition to the sudden drop in oil prices, the trading volume in the oil market has also sharply increased. According to Bloomberg,WTIThe trading volume of crude oil futures contracts reaches one minute8200Hand! hedge fund Again CapitalCo founder ofJohn KilduffIndicates that the market isOPECThe eve of the meeting will become very sensitive, even if there is an increase in production1Barrel of oil, the market will overreact.

Although the later release of active US oil drilling numbers reduced the short-term decline in oil prices, it still failed to alleviate the bearish sentiment in the market. According to Baker Hughes data, as of7month21During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased1Mouth to mouth764Mouth, for1The second week since the beginning of the month has decreased. However, analysts believe that this decline is only a temporary adjustment, and expect the overall upward trend to continue until2019In the same period last year371Mouth.


According to relevant data, many shale oil production companies in the United States have already planned to2017The annual increase in capital expenditure was the first in two years, as higher oil prices increased the bank's credit limit. On the other hand, domestic crude oil production in the United States increased last week3.210000 barrels to942.910000 barrels/Day, continuously increasing for four weeks and continuing to maintain at90010000 barrels/Above the Sun Pass.EIALast week, it was predicted that US shale oil production would record growth for the eighth consecutive month8Month will increase11.210000 barrels/Solstice56010000 barrels/Daily high. And despite the decrease in US crude oil inventories last week472.7Ten thousand barrels, but about4.9The inventory of billions of barrels is still far above the five-year average.


Nevertheless, Bloomberg7month21According to the survey results released on the day, crude oil traders and analysts have been bullish on the trend of US crude oil prices for the 14th consecutive week. Regarding the trend of oil prices this week, in response to the survey45Among traders and analysts,29People（64%）Look ahead,5People（12%）Bearish,11People（24%）Look flat. Stimulated by the previous resurgence of oil prices,CFTCData display, as of7month18During the current week, speculators' net speculative long positions in crude oil increased38434Hand contract, to396459Hand contract.


The market focus has now shifted toOPECThe St. Petersburg Conference.OPECThe main members are scheduled for this Monday(7month24day)Discuss market conditions and whether more action is needed to support oil prices with non member Russia in St. Petersburg. According to sources quoted by the Financial Times last week, Saudi Arabia is considering increasing its production reduction efforts. But the common view in the market is that there will be no change in the production reduction agreement, and analysts are concerned thatOPECDoubts are expressed about whether Nigeria and Libya's exemption from production cuts will be revoked. Analyst at Royal Bank of CanadaHelima CroftDue to the recent announcement by Ecuador to withdraw from production cuts and the continuous increase in production in Libya and Nigeria, on MondayOPECThe meeting will demonstrate the organization's determination to handle additional crude oil production.OPECEither by terminating exemptions from some oil producing countries, or by implementing additional production reduction measures in the future, to handle additional production.


In addition, oil market investors should also pay attention to the situation in Venezuela this week. Venezuela's opposition camp23Japan has called for a new wave of strikes nationwide, opposing President Maduro's constitutional plan to expand his own power. Most parts of the country have been paralyzed, and the next strike will be26、27Held on the day of. A senior White House official revealed over the weekend that the US government is considering imposing financial sanctions on Venezuela and suspending US dollar payments for Venezuela's crude oil exports; Sources say that this move will severely restrict Venezuela's crude oil exports and prohibit cooperation with the country's national oil companyPDVSAUsing the hard currency of the US dollar for any related oil trading is currently the strictest of the various oil related restrictions being studied by the White House. The current goal of the US government is to impose sanctions on Venezuelan President Maduro to abandon the new congressional plan.


Analysis of crude oil market


On Friday's closing battle, crude oil performance was relatively active, with the Asian market consistently in a sideways position. After a slight rise in the European market, it experienced a high decline, and in the evening, the US market experienced a waterfall like decline. Later, due to the stimulation of the news, it fell below in one fell swoop46.00Pass support, hitting the lowest point in the day45.54The first line directly formed a continuous decline. This time, it was a continuous negative decline at the daily level, and after coming up, it did not cross the previous high position and directly penetrated it46.00The support position has formed a waterfall like downward trend, and the previous rise has been completely shattered in the current attachment. From a technical perspective, the daily line recorded a negative column and the moving average showed signs of a dead cross, running below the transaction pricemacdLooking at the price of crude oil, it should be30Operating below the daily moving average, crude oil showed a stepwise decline in four hours, recording3Following the big negative line and without effective support below, it is currently seen that crude oil is bearish in the short term. However, as mentioned in the article on Friday, a major trend in crude oil in the near future still depends on today's OPEC meeting. Therefore, Friday's midnight decline does not mean that the big bear has completely arrived. For this week's crude oil trend, the God believes that under the premise of short selling, the first thing to see is whether OPEC appreciates it or not. The trend of crude oil this week is temporarily off the charts. Personally, I believe that in the face of such major news, any technical analysis appears pale and powerless, and everything is waiting for the OPEC meeting. As for morning and European operations, it is possible to perform a short-term high-altitude operation.

Multiple crude oil transactions


A friend who has been trapped by crude oil bulls would like to have one47USD and46The two major levels of the US dollar have a wide range of47The multiple orders in the US dollar were also mentioned in the analysis last night47.20The suppression was quite obvious in the early trading days of last week, so I won't say much about it. Additionally46The multiple orders at the US dollar level are actually quite unfair. Why do you say that? Because it was basically caught overnight on Friday, first of all, you don't bring a stop loss. In this kind of weekly closing market, there have been quite strange market trends not once or twice. In addition, from a technical perspective, the market has fallen below46.80After a strong line of support, the strength of bearish positions has increased, and at this time, you still have a heart to heart mentality? Finally, I will analyze how to unwind this week. The idea of unwinding multiple orders for crude oil is quite clear. Let's take a look at the OPEC meeting on Monday. Simply put, if the meeting takes clear action to reduce production, there is no need to panic for multiple orders. If the meeting is just a passing session, then it is necessary to be mentally prepared to cut the meat and not take chances. Of course, detailed solutions can be obtained by contacting the Divine Finger for real-time guidance, analysis, and layout.


　　goldLatest news


Last week, gold saw significant improvements in both fundamentals and technology, with gold prices breaking through upwards200The strong upward momentum of the daily moving average mainly comes from two aspects: the European Central Bank of Japan continues to maintain interest rates unchanged and maintains loose policies, and is not in a hurry to reduce themQE; The political situation in the White House of the United States is unstable. After Trump's healthcare proposal was once again thwarted, the "Russia door" has become increasingly fierce, and Trump's son-in-law has also been listed as the subject of investigation. White House spokesperson Spencer（Sean Spicer）The "flash words" caused an uproar from the outside world, and the market's risk aversion sentiment increased. The US dollar continued to be suppressed, forming support for gold.


　　COMEX 8Monthly gold futures last Friday（7month21Day up9.40USD, increase0.8%Report1254.90dollar/Ounces, marking the sixth consecutive day of gains and losses5month17The longest consecutive days of upward trend since the current week, and6month23Closing at a new high since the beginning of the day, with a cumulative increase last week2.2%Up the previous week1.5%；9Silver futures for monthly delivery rose last Friday11.2Cents, collect16.457dollar/Ounces, up by0.7%Last week, it also accumulated an increase3.3%. International spot gold as of7month21Accumulated daily and weekly gains26.30USD, increase2.14%Report collection1254.70dollar/Ounces. Gold has exceeded the limit for three consecutive trading days200Daily moving average, currently surpassing50The level of the daily moving average.

Friday morning local time in the United States10President Trump appointed hedge fund giant Scaramucci（Anthony Scaramucci）Successed as the White House Communications Director. Before the announcement of this news10In minutes, White House spokesperson and former acting White House Communications Director, Spencer, announced his resignation. According to sources, Trump had requested that Spencer continue to serve as the White House spokesperson and offered to retain him. However, Spencer believed that Trump's appointment decision was a major mistake and insisted on resigning from the White House spokesperson position. After Speiser announced his resignation, the decline in the US dollar index widened to0.4%, refresh2016year6month24Since the low point of the day93.86. The increase in spot gold has expanded to exceed10USD or near1%, refresh6month26Recently, the highest level has reached1255.80dollar/ounce.


However, the recent rise in gold prices has begun to show an impact on physical gold demand, with gold demand in India, the world's second largest gold consumer, starting to weaken, and local gold prices showing signs of weakness1dollar/A discount of around ounces. Indian gold sellers expect that gold demand will be relatively weak in the next three to four weeks, possibly due to8It will only improve in the second half of the month.


Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the United States（CFTC）The latest report shows that as of7month18During the current week, speculators' net speculative long positions in gold decreased122Hand, to60138Hand; Reduction in speculative net long positions in silver held by speculators4629Hand, to9376Hand.


Looking ahead to this week,Kitco 7month21According to the weekly gold survey released on the day, Wall Street professionals and ordinary investors unanimously believe that the gold rally will continue due to the continued volatility of the White House, the weakening of the US dollar, and the technological advantages of gold. According to the latest survey released by Bloomberg last Friday, traders and analysts continue to be bullish on this week's gold price trend for the fifth consecutive week as European Central Bank President Draghi stated that policymakers are still waiting for inflation to rebound and will discuss reducing stimulus in the autumn.


However, investors need to be careful that gold's surge last week may trigger profit taking, and the Federal ReserveFOMCThis week, namely7month25-26The interest rate meeting held on the day is also a test for gold, so some analysts believe that gold may consolidate this week and the upward trend is temporarily halted. In addition, a series of economic data will also trigger some market volatility, with key reports including housing sales data, initial manufacturing values, consumer confidence index, durable goods data, and the second quarter of the United StatesGDPCorrection value.


Gold Market Analysis


Last week, gold continued to rise and bulls continued to ferment, bringing new vitality to the once sluggish gold market1210The first line once rose to1250Above, there will be another outbreak at midnight on Friday, and the market will directly rise to1255Frontline. From the perspective of technical trends, the market is still relatively strong. It broke a new high in the early hours of last Friday, and there was no significant pullback at midnight. The hourly level showed a stepped up trend, and there is currently no effective suppression above. Therefore, the bullish momentum will continue at the beginning of this week. In addition, there is basically no news in the international market that will boost the US dollar or suppress the upward trend of gold prices. Therefore, based on comprehensive analysis, it is still recommended to treat gold as a long bear with a downward trend in operation today. In addition, when there is no obvious suppression above, do not blindly engage in high-altitude activities.

Gold empty order unwinding


In recent days, I have been writing an analysis of gold and emphasizing that the power of bullish gold is to reduce. Don't be short, don't be short. Unfortunately, many people don't listen and always take chances. To be honest, I don't understand. Just because last week's price rose by dozens of dollars, I wanted to take the top bull and fall back, and because I lost a short short short, I wanted to avenge it. It seems that bullish gold is the enemy, but I have to turn the other way, Did someone accidentally touch you and you want to duel with you? Now? The warehouse is basically covered in deep layers, while the heavy warehouse is covered in quilts. If there are too many words, the divine finger doesn't want to say much. In a word, the trend of bullish gold is still there, and if the empty order is covered, it is necessary to be prepared to cut the flesh. It is best to dispel this idea as soon as possible when there is a wave of continuous decline in the water source of the Yellow River. If you believe me, you can still contact me, and I will do my best to help you reduce losses.


The market has entered a new week, and this week too7In the last week of the month, if you are still feeling depressed about the previous investment and cannot let go of it, you will only fall into a state of decline. It's better to take advantage of the early exit. If you are complacent and do not strive for progress due to your previous meager profits, then you will only stop moving forward. This society is progressing too fast and you will be eliminated immediately. In life and work, I have the deepest understanding of an idiom: Be prepared for danger in times of peace. I hope this idiom can give you a warning. If my article resonates with you, you may want to talk to me. Whether it's investment or life, this society has made people increasingly distant from each other, and we all need to communicate.


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