ZFXShanhai Securities: Gold prices plummet! return to5000Below the US dollar!

goldLast Friday saw a significant drop, with gold prices hitting a record high1983The largest single day decline since the beginning of the year, after Trump announced the nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Walsh to replace Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman, which was seen as a hawkish signal by the market and triggered large-scale profit taking in the precious metal market. Monday (Beijing time)2month2In the morning session of the Asian market, spot gold was traded4770dollar/Near the ounce, the morning opening approached briefly4700dollar/The ounce level is expected to drop for testing within the day4500dollar/Ounce level.


1、 The reason for the current sharp decline in gold prices

The direct trigger for the current sharp drop in gold prices was Trump's nomination of hawkish Walsh as Federal Reserve Chairman, coupled with the resurgence of the risk of a US shutdown, which led to a sharp increase in market concerns about monetary policy tightening, triggering a stampede of bulls and the withdrawal of highly leveraged funds.


On the surface, this sharp decline is driven by events. Walsh has been nominated as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, and his historical statements lean towards "interest rate cuts"+The combination of "shrinking balance sheet" is causing concerns in the market that its rise to power will drive the US dollar stronger and suppress gold. At the same time, some government agencies in the United States are facing the risk of shutdown, exacerbating short-term liquidity tensions and the volatility of risk aversion.

However, the deeper reason is that the market structure is already relatively fragile - after the continuous surge in gold prices, London gold is now approaching5600dollar/Ounces, implied volatility skyrockets to46%Above, in2009Since the beginning of the year99.9%Quantile level.CMEimprovefuturesThe margin ratio further squeezes short-term leveraged funds, making the market exceptionally sensitive to negative news.

2、 Outlook for the Future of Gold


expectation2026For the rest of the year, the trend of gold prices is full of uncertainty, but analysts generally believe that this sharp decline is not the end of the bull market, but a necessary adjustment. Before the sharp fall last Thursday, gold had defeated almost all year-end target prices, and the rapid rise was regarded as evidence of speculative foam.

UBS analysts remain optimistic, predicting that gold may reach its peak in March6200The US dollar will end before the end of the year5900The reason for the US dollar is that the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates at least twice this year, which will exert downward pressure on the US dollar and push up gold prices. Gold was also supported by the continued increase in US debt and the expansion of spending commitments.

In addition, geopolitical risks remain a key variable. The US fleet heading to Iran, intensified sanctions against allies and enemies, and the threat to the dominance of the US dollar may all prompt central banks to continue accumulating gold reserves, pushing gold prices to reach higher historical highs.

3、 Today's Gold Technology Analysis


From short-term technical indicators, London gold has entered a recovery phase after oversold.RSIIndicator from overbought range in the early stage（80+）Quickly fall back to32Entering the oversold area,4hourKDJForm a low-level golden cross,MACDThe green bar is rapidly shrinking, and short-term oversold rebound signals are beginning to emerge, but at the daily levelMACDMaintaining a dead cross, the bearish momentum has not been fully released, making it difficult to form a sustained rebound trend.KIn terms of line shape, the previous single day bearish candlestick fell below the support of multiple moving averages, but today it showed a small bearish consolidation and failed to effectively recover5The daily moving average shows that the bulls are weak in their attack.

In terms of key points, the support level is clearly divided into two levels: the first support level4680dollar/Ounces (today's intraday low), if it falls below, it will further explore4600-4700dollar/Ounce range; Strong support level4750dollar/Ounces, the cost line for global central bank gold purchases, is also a high trading area in the early stages. Holding this level is expected to initiate a volatile recovery. The pressure level is concentrated in4900-5000dollar/Add ounces, this range is a high concentration area for early profit taking, and also5Daily moving average and10The daily moving average is at a suppression level, and when rebounding to this range, caution should be exercised against the emergence of selling pressure again.