Swiss franc : 通道破位潜伏延伸沽压 ─(8month4day)

View All · Published on 2008-8-4 10:20:19

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Focus:
•瑞士通膨数据支撑升息倾向
•阻力参考1.0415•1.0300•1.0200
•支撑参考1.0500/40*•1.0600**•1.0640•1.0800

瑞郎方面，上周数据显示，瑞士消费者物价指数(CPI)Ascend to15年高位，支持了该国将需升息以对抗通膨的观点。6monthCPI按月下滑0.4%，因零售商在夏季促销活动中削减服装和鞋类商品的价格，但通膨年率升至3.1%, for1993year10月以来最高。利率futures市场走势显示，瑞士央行在未来12个月内升息一次的机率非常之高。数据以及风险偏好下降辅助瑞郎于上周抗衡美元强势，低位仅见于1.0521，总算在关键支撑点站得住脚。

波浪理论分析，瑞郎仍运行大型第(V)Within the waves(3)Within the waves4Stretching within the waves(c)浪。瑞郎由3month17Daily high0.9644开始运行大型的第(V)Within the waves(3)Within the waves4伸延浪，并以(a)、(b)、(c)浪运行。由0.9644to5month8Daily low1.0626为第4Stretching within the waves(a)Waves,1.0626to7month15Daily high1.0137为第4Stretching within the waves(b)浪；而1.0137至现在仍为第4Stretching within the waves(c)浪。预料此第4Stretching within the waves(c)浪有机会以次一级的伸延浪运行，而此第4Stretching within the waves(c)浪最终有机会下跌至1.10-1.15Horizontal.

技术图表所见，由于瑞郎仍见已突破近两个月构成之下行通道，为弱势展开的一个警报讯号；当前将看1.0500/1.0540区域为关键支持，近月走势亦见瑞郎低位在此见支撑，若然今次亦未能守稳，将可望促成一轮跌势。型态上目前瑞郎走势呈双底，颈线位置1.0320已破， 320点延伸双底幅度则为1.0640Horizontal;1.06Horizontal5月份低位亦应见一定支撑力道。较近阻力则预计10Balance moving average1.0415，50天平均线则见于1.0325，突破此区应见瑞郎沽压得以舒缓，其后进一步挑战阻力预计为25Balance moving average1.0300and1.02Gateway.

(Analysis provided by the Research Department of King Financial Group's Cross Harbour)