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瑞郎方面,持续的金融市场问题目前仍集中在美国市场,而具避险色彩之瑞郎则因而受到提振而正续挑战重要心理关口平价水准。环球股市周二大幅下挫驱使瑞郎迫近至1.0009,周四股市跌幅放缓,打击瑞郎作为避险资产的吸引力。瑞士联邦统计局周三公布瑞士5月经通膨调整后的实质零售销售较上年同期上升7.4%, estimated to be growth2.50%;当中食物及衣服等分别上升8.2%and7.2%,反映物价上升压力扩大。

波浪理论分析,瑞郎仍运行大型第(V)Within the waves(3)Within the waves4Stretching within the waves(b)浪。瑞郎由07year1month26Daily low1.2576to07year4month25Daily high1.1993为大型的第(V)Within the waves(3)Within the waves1Stretching waves,1.1993to07year6month13Daily low1.2468为大型的第(V)Within the waves(3)Within the waves2伸延浪。而1.2468to08year3month17Daily high0.9644为第3Stretching waves,0.9964to5month8Daily low1.0626为第4Stretching within the waves(a)Waves,1.0626至现在仍为第4Stretching within the waves(b)浪。当第4Stretching within the waves(b)浪确认运行完毕,第4Stretching within the waves(c)浪即下跌浪马上展开。

从过去两周多之走势看,瑞郎仍见处于争持待变格局,型态上正处于下降通道内运行,目前底部则正在于1.00关口。预计较近支持为10Balance moving average1.0215,至于重要区间支持则为25Days and50Balance moving average1.0285and1.0335水平,估计回破此区,则瑞郎应见较大回吐压力,下看进一步关键支撑将为通道底部1.0460水平。相反,若突破平价关口,顺势可望考验0.9950and0.9890Horizontal, the latter being50周保历加通道底部,再下一步至20周保历加通道底部则为0.9585Horizontal.

(Analysis provided by the Research Department of King Financial Group's Cross Harbour)
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