At the beginning of the Asian market, oil prices fluctuated and fell

Huitong Network3month6Daily News - Monday(3month6day)At the beginning of the Asian market, oil prices fluctuated and fell. Meiyou Trading Co., Ltd53.13dollar/Near the barrel, the decrease is approximately0.38%; Oil distribution and trading55.73dollar/Near the barrel, the decrease is approximately0.13%. The total number of oil drilling in the United States continues to reach a new high, while the latest survey data shows that,OPECThe lower than expected reduction in production by oil producing countries has heightened bearish sentiment towards the oil market in the market.CERAWeekThe energy conference will kick off on Monday this week, and investors need to closely monitor it.

crude oilAt the beginning of the week, the oil market opened with a volatile decline, focusing on the marketCERAWeekEnergy Conference

Last Friday(3month3day)Due to geopolitical factors such as the weakening of the US dollar and the capture of Libyan oil ports by terrorist organizations, both US oil and crude oil have risen by over1%However, looking at the entire week, the cumulative decline of the US and Brent oil companies last week exceeded1%。
Reminder from Huitong Network: Starting from this Monday(3month6day)At the beginning, major oil producing countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States will meet in Houston, USA to hold annual meetingsCERAWeekEnergy Conference. Among them, Russian Energy Minister Novak(Alexander Novak)On Monday, Saudi Energy Minister Fateh will deliver a speech(Khalid Al-Falih)Will attend on Tuesday(3month7day)Meeting. Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United States are undoubtedly the three giants in global crude oil production. Investors need to closely monitor the future oil market policies of these countries.

From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, last Saturday(3month4day)02:00According to published data, as of3month3The total number of oil wells drilled by Baker Hughes in the current week is609Mouth, recorded from2015year10The highest level since the beginning of the month.

According to the latest survey results released by Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia2Monthly crude oil production ratio1The moon has descended910000 barrels/Solstice97810000 barrels/Day, below its production limit for two consecutive months100610000 barrels/Japan, Saudi Arabia still bears the responsibilityOPECMost of the quotas for reducing production.OPEC 2The monthly crude oil production is321710000 barrels/Day1Monthly decrease6.510000 barrels/Day. But if we add Indonesia's production,OPEC 2The monthly crude oil production is higher than last year's11The production target specified in the end of month production reduction agreement(325010000 barrels/day)Excess41.510000 barrels/Day.

From a geopolitical perspective, according toFX678According to foreign media reports, the military in eastern Libya launched counterattacks and airstrikes against opposition forces near the main oil port last Friday to defend their control over the port. Currently, the largest oil port in Libya, Sidar Port, has been captured by a terrorist organization. After years of domestic conflict, the road to resuming crude oil production in Libya remains bumpy.

Libya may rearrange the loading of crude oil at Sidir Port and Ras Lanuf Port, transferring them toZueitinaGangheBregaHong Kong. The Libyan National Oil Company stated that the port will remain closed until security conditions improve and workers return to terminal equipment.

From the perspective of market linkage, the US dollar index fell last Friday and fell behind102Gateway. Usually, a strengthening of the US dollar will suppress oil prices denominated in US dollars. The weakening of the US dollar to some extent supports the upward trend of oil prices.

From the perspective of holdings, American goodsfuturesTrading Committee(CFTC)The latest published position report shows that as of2month28During the current week, the long position in New York crude oil was690281Hand, decreased compared to last week22436Hand; Short positions are165027Hands, increased compared to last week8917Hand; The net long position is525254Hand, decreased compared to last week31353Hand. Market analysts believe that this may indicate an increase in investors' bearish sentiment towards crude oil.

From market expectations,BMI ResearchRecently, it has been stated that Brent crude oil may rise in the short term60dollar/Barrels, but the production in the United States, andOPECThe decline in production reduction efforts will curb the rise in oil prices,2017Annual expected oil prices remain at an average level57dollar/Bucket. From now until2020In, the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be around57-67dollar/Between buckets. reach5monthOPECThe total production will remain at a daily level3200About ten thousand barrels.BMIDoubtful attitude towards fully adhering to production reduction commitments.
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