Vantage FXWanzhi: AUD to USD3month3Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

Industrial Investment:
Despite the strong performance of the Australian dollar on Wednesday, the long upward shadow cast a shadow over the later trend, and the overnight exchange rate fell below0.7640Plummeting after frontline support100Point, and expand the decline in the Asian market early today. Early market data shows that Australia2The monthly service industry performance index varies from54.5Slide down to49.0However, its impact on the exchange rate is limited. Due to the soaring expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, commodities fell overnight, dragging down the commodity currency AUD. Follow the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen today.
The daily chart shows a strong downward trend with a large bearish candlestick, and the random indicators have entered the oversold area but show no signs of correction. It is still expected to continue to decline.4The hourly chart moving average system diverges downwards, which may further suppress the downward trend of the exchange rate. Hour chart on0.7560The front line is slightly stable but lacks rebound strength, still bearish. Within the day0.7580Short on the front line, take a look first0.7540。
Support position:0.7540 0.7500 0.7460
Resistance level:0.7580 0.7600 0.7620
　　TeleTrade：
AUD/The US dollar fell sharply overnight and fell below during the trading session0.76After rounding off the integer, it further refreshed the one month low point to0.7557Federal Reserve3The expectation of a monthly interest rate hike has further heated up, triggering a large amount of accumulated long Australian dollar profits to close positions, leading to the Australian dollar/The US dollar experienced a significant intraday decline of over120Point. The Australian dollar has been around since last year12Since the beginning of the month, the Australian dollar has continued to rise, accumulating a large number of long positions. In addition, there has been a lack of significant adjustment during this period, and the recent surge in expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has triggered the Australian dollar's long positions to start profit-making and closing, turning the short-term trend into bearish. Today, there is a lack of economic data in Australia. Investors can pay attention to the Fifth Session of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, with a focus on Saturday morning02:00Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen's speech on the economic outlook at the Chicago Executive Club3month15Yellen's final speech before the decision of the Federal Reserve of Japan, stating that his wording on the prospect of interest rate hikes will cause severe fluctuations in the exchange rate.
Key resistance:0.7570/0.7610/0.7650
Key support:0.7530/0.7510/0.7490
Technically speaking, the exchange rate fell significantly overnight and fell to a one month low after being supported by the falling moving average, which may indicate0.7740A short-term top has been established nearby, and the current trend has turned bearish.4On the hourly chart, it can also be seen that the exchange rate continues to fluctuate and fall, with weak signs of rebound. It is recommended to maintain a high level during the period0.7570Short selling nearby with stop loss set at0.7610Target Look0.7530and0.7510。
　AustraliaGCG：
Yesterday, it was proposed that the longer the AUD has been consolidating, but once it breaks the level, the future market will be magnificent. Yesterday, the exchange rate fell sharply below the limit0.7650The support position has started to decline significantly, and the intraday decline has reached1.4%At present, the exchange rate is0.7550. Expected to be tested again in the future0.75The key point price is maintained by the intraday strategy of short selling at high points0.76。
　　FX168：
AUD/At the beginning of the Asian market on Friday, the US dollar fell to0.7561Trading slightly above this level, distance2Monthly low0.7551Not far.4On the hourly chart, the technical indicators maintained a bearish trend within the oversold area, while the exchange rate fell below200EMA, for1month10For the first time in recent days, currently located in0.7610. On the same chart,20The moving average is accelerating its decline, but it is relatively slow compared to the exchange rate, located at0.7650. The technical indicators make the currency pair appear overly extended, but this is attributed to2The lack of volatility in the month means that it may continue to decline after a short period of consolidation, especially when it falls below0.7550In the case of.
Support position:0.7550 0.7510 0.7470
Resistance level:0.7590 0.7620 0.7650
Dahua Bank:
AUD/USD: Neutral, expected to further decline to0.7510.Last day, we pointed out that the euro has formed a short-term peak, and further pullbacks may fall to0.7605even to the extent that0.7570. The unexpected drop in the Australian dollar on the previous day was once low0.7557. The sharp decline of the Australian dollar and the increase in downward momentum mean that the Australian dollar will further decline. But the next support0.7510It is quite strong and may not easily break through. Previous breakthroughs0.7605The current level is a strong resistance, but only a return is possible0.7645The upper part agreed that the Australian dollar is currently weak and stable.
Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　AUD/USD
Support 0.7510 0.7460 resistance 0.7600 0.7690
We have been warning about the risk at the top of the Australian dollar before. In the context of yesterday's significant strengthening of the US dollar, the Australian dollar has also experienced a significant decline from the resistance level reported in the report, breaking through strongly as expected0.7600The support from the region is still bearish in the short term, and the new range of fluctuations is0.75-0.76。After all, the significant upward trend of the Australian dollar in the early stage has accumulated some downward pressure, and the recent strengthening of the US dollar yield will also affect the attractiveness of the Australian dollar. The recent trend has been biased towards a downward trend, and if the downward trend0.7510The support level has been broken through, and the lower target is at0.7460;The first position above is0.7600The resistance level is also an important support level for early volatility, and the starting position for the decline is further above it0.7700Resistance level.

Event discussion:

Time Importance Index Content Pre Value(Before correction)Detailed explanation of predicted value published values

05:30Last week's money supply in the United StatesM1change(USD100mn)(to0220)290337

05:30Last week's money supply in the United StatesM2change(USD100mn)(to0220)50107

22:45U.S.A2monthMarkitFinal value of the Purchasing Managers Index for the Service Industry53.953.9Waiting

U.S.A2monthMarkitFinal value of the Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index54.3Waiting

23:00U.S.A2monthISMNon manufacturing supplier delivery index59Waiting

U.S.A2monthISMNon manufacturing price index59Waiting

U.S.A2monthISMNon manufacturing Purchasing Managers'Index56.556.5Waiting

U.S.A2monthISMNon manufacturing inventory index52.1Waiting

U.S.A2monthISMNon manufacturing new order index58.6Waiting

U.S.A2monthISMNon manufacturing employment index54.7Waiting

23:30Last week in the United StatesECRILeading indicators(to0224)144.6Waiting

Last week in the United StatesECRILeading indicators(to0224)(the annual rate)10.5%Waiting

Focus:Vantage FXWanzhi: The strong return of the US dollar and the upcoming joint appearance of the two Federal Reserve giants（https://www.vantagefx.cn/market-analysis/17030301/）
　　

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