兴业投资：美元持续走高 日内耶伦或为3月加息定调

兴业投资：美元持续走高 日内耶伦或为3月加息定调
2017year3month3day
euro/dollar
欧元继续震荡走低，测试前期低点1.0490一线。尽管特朗普在国会的讲话并未涉及税改和基建的详情，但由于美联储多位官员为加息造势，本周市场对美联储3月加息的预期已经高达90%，提振美元。今日美联储主席耶伦讲话，将是3月美联储利率决议前最后一次机会对市场释放预期管理，接着美联储官员将进入为期一周半的静默期。若耶伦继续对3月加息持开放态度，美元将有望扩大涨幅。
日图下行测试前期低点1.0490，随机指标继续走弱，短线震荡偏弱，4小时图震荡下行，在前期低点1.0490一线寻得支持反弹，但下行的均线可能限制反弹力度，小时图小幅反弹，但力度不强。日内建议1.0540Short below, break below1.0490follow-up.
Support position:1.0490 1.0440 1.0400
Resistance level:1.0565 1.0600 1.0635
pound/dollar
英镑在连续两日下跌后，隔夜跌势有所放缓，基本围绕1.2270整理，盘中短暂下探1.2240但很快收复失地，当天收录十字星，表现较其它非美货币相对坚挺。不过，若今日美联储主席耶伦讲话进一步增强市场对美联储3月加息的预期，英镑仍将有望扩大跌幅。此外，关注英国2月服务业采购经理人指数。
日图略有企稳，但整体维持偏空格局。4小时图跌势有所放缓，但缺乏反弹力度。小时图低位窄幅整理，仍有望继续下行。日内建议1.2300下方维持做空。
Support position:1.2225 1.2170 1.2130
Resistance level:1.2300 1.2345 1.2390
dollar/Japanese yen
汇价小幅扩大涨幅，但上探114.50上方后有所回落，等待进一步方向。本周美联储官员频繁讲话，甚至鸽派官员也为3月加息保驾护航，提振美元。当前汇价已经触及近期下降通道顶部，若今晚美联储主席耶伦夯实市场对3月的加息预期，汇价将有望扩大涨幅。
日图汇价测试下降通道顶部，随机指标进入超买区域但没有修正迹象。4小时图持续上行后在近期下降通道上轨涨势略有放缓，初步支持114.10，若持稳该档上方将有望向上突破。小时图上行势头维持完好，短线回撤力度有限。日内建议关注114.60Frontline performance determines further direction.
Support position:114.00 113.60 113.20
Resistance level:114.95 115.30 115.65
AUD/dollar
澳元尽管周三表现坚挺，但长上影线为后期走势埋下阴影，隔夜汇价向下跌破0.7640Plummeting after frontline support100Point, and expand the decline in the Asian market early today. Early market data shows that Australia2The monthly service industry performance index varies from54.5Slide down to49.0However, its impact on the exchange rate is limited. Due to the soaring expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, commodities fell overnight, dragging down the commodity currency AUD. Follow the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen today.
日图以大阴线下跌，下行势头猛烈，随机指标进入超卖区域但没有修正迹象，仍有望继续走低。4The hourly chart moving average system diverges downwards, which may further suppress the downward trend of the exchange rate. Hour chart on0.7560The front line is slightly stable but lacks rebound strength, still bearish. Within the day0.7580Short on the front line, take a look first0.7540。
Support position:0.7540 0.7500 0.7460
Resistance level:0.7580 0.7600 0.7620