Vantage FXWanzhi: AUD to USD3month2Analysis and Trend Forecast of Foreign Exchange Trading in Japanese Investment Banks

Deng Fute:
AUD/The mid-term upward trend of the US dollar0.7740When encountering obstacles, it falls back, limiting further expansion of the inner space within the interval. From the hourly chart trend, the Australian dollar/USD from2month23The Australian dollar has been operating in a fluctuating downward pattern since the beginning of the day, with a short-term decline in the Australian dollar0.7635A low adjustment rhythm has formed around the low point with a slope close to the horizontal and obvious lack of intensity, and the Australian dollar will further decline after continuous adjustments0.7610. Short term resistance0.7710, support0.7600。
　　TeleTrade：
AUD/The US dollar closed moderately higher after a severe volatility, pausing its three consecutive declines. The exchange rate fluctuated during the trading session, with Australia's earlier announcementGDPAnd China's manufacturing industryPMIThe data all performed well, boosting the Australian dollar to a two-day high at one point0.7699;However, after Trump's speech, the US dollar surged and long positions in the Australian dollar closed with profits, offsetting the bullish impact of economic data and causing the exchange rate to turn back down;But the US data released during the New York session was mixed, and the Australian dollar took advantage of the strong rebound and ultimately closed higher. Data shows that in the fourth quarter of AustraliaGDPQuarterly growth rate1.1%, better than the previous decline in value0.5%Increase in estimated value0.7%;Annual growth rate2.4%Better than previous value growth1.8%Increase in estimated value1.9%. Australia announced during today's Asian market session1Surplus recorded in monthly goods and services trade accounts13.02AUD billion, far below the previous surplus35.11AUD 100 million and estimated value38AUD billion, AUD after data release/The short-term decline of the US dollar has exceeded20Points.
Key resistance:0.7680/0.7710/0.7740
Key support:0.7630/0.7610/0.7580
Technically speaking, the exchange rate fluctuated violently overnight and eventually closed at a bullish outsourcing line, pausing three consecutive declines. Today, the Asian exchange rate fell back and fell below the support of the moving average. Currently, the opening of the Poly Plus channel has significantly narrowed,RSIPointing towards a low level, if it falls below yesterday's low0.7630Support may look towards0.7610and0.7580Looking towards rebound resistance0.7680and0.7710。
AustraliaGCG：
The current trend of the Australian dollar is still limited to volatility, and the exchange rate is limited by0.77The location and0.7650Supported by location, the exchange rate touched multiple times in the previous day0.7650We have mentioned multiple times that the position has started to stop the decline0.7650The importance of location, but the exchange rate has not fallen below0.7650We still treat the position as a volatile trend, so we will continue to sell high and buy low within the day,0.7650Multiple orders of location and0.77Empty order for location. But it should be reminded to investors that the longer the volatility lasts, the stronger the market after breaking through.
Daoming Securities:
The nominal effective exchange rate of the Australian dollar is from1Rising since the beginning of the month5%, with a year-on-year increase of over7%. The sluggish macroeconomic situation and progress in rebalancing have driven the Australian dollar higher. In addition, the unexpectedly strong economic data also provided some support for the Australian dollar. The data released this week is particularly eye-catching.
Due to the surge in trade surplus, the current account deficit has decreased to15The lowest level in years. This reflects the strong prices of commodities and the increase in foreign demand. If this situation persists, Australia may be able to make up for its external deficit, which will be beneficial for the country since1975For the first time since the beginning of the year. Fourth quarterGDPThe growth exceeded market expectations, and the details of the report also showed strong momentum. This will result in a significant increase in next month's inflation report. However, our bank still expects the Reserve of Australia to raise interest rates in the fourth quarter. The decrease in the current account deficit will also help improve the long-term valuation of the Australian dollar.
The overall optimistic economic data and expected fourth quarter interest rate hikes should provide good support for the Australian dollar. Based on the transformation of capital flow allocation, the euro/The Australian dollar may fall.
　ANZ Bank:
Australian dollar trading in the near term range(0.72/78)At the top, but our bank believes it is unlikely to break through this range. In the short term, risk appetite sentiment continues, and the Australian dollar is unable to sustain its movement due to the lack of new stimulus from currency re inflation trading. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar and the narrowing of interest rate spreads will also cause the Australian dollar to weaken this year.
Vantage FXAnalysis of Wanzhi's viewpoint:
　　AUD/USD
Support 0.7600 0.7510 resistance 0.7700 0.7760
　Yesterday, the Australian dollar was the strongest performing among all non US currencies, after all, in the fourth quarterGDPSignificantly better than expected and China'sPMIThe data continues to improve, providing some support for it. However, we still believe that if we cannot break through the upper limit for a long time0.7760In this case, investors still need to be wary of the risk of a pullback in the Australian dollar。After all, the recent strengthening of the US dollar yield will still affect the attractiveness of the Australian dollar, and the trend is still a matter of judgment0.76-0.77The interval will become a new oscillation zone, only below the breakthrough0.76It is possible to see a significant downward correction trend only after that, and the lower targets are0.7510;The first position above is0.7700The resistance, if broken further above, is0.7760The high point of.

Event discussion:

Time Importance Index Content Pre Value(Before correction)Detailed explanation of predicted value published values

20:30U.S.A2Monthly Challenger Enterprise Layoffs(the annual rate)-38.8%Waiting

U.S.A2Monthly Challenger Enterprise Layoffs(Monthly rate)+36.6%Waiting

21:30Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States after last week's quarterly adjustment(ten thousand people)(to0225)24.424.5Waiting

21:30Four week average of initial jobless claims in the United States after last week's quarterly adjustment(ten thousand people)(to0225)24.1Waiting

Last week's quarterly survey in the United States followed up on the number of claims for unemployment benefits(to0218)206.0206.0Waiting

22:45Bloomberg Consumer Confidence Index for the Week in the United States(to0226)48Waiting

23:30Last week in the United StatesEIAChanges in natural gas inventory(Billion cubic feet)(to0224)-890-40Waiting

Focus:Vantage FXWanzhi: Trump's Fake Shot Returns Market Focus to the Federal Reserve（https://www.vantagefx.cn/market-analysis/17030201/）
　　

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